WI: Israel kept the Sinai?

Cook

Banned
Riain,
Do you know if there’s any truth to the story that the US keep Egypt short of spare parts to keep them on a short leash?
 

MacCaulay

Banned
The M1 is the cheapest western tank to buy and maintain, the extra fuel consumption is well and truly offset by all manner of bits and pieces being cheap and able to be pre-purchased on equity agreements. The same applies to most US gear, huge equity arrangements make it cheaper than other western equipment to maintain long term.

I don't know...you might want to qualify that statement. I'm pretty sure you're talking about new build tanks, though I can just feel someone waiting in the wings saying: "Turkey and Israel have M-60s and they're cheaper!"

I just can't see why an M1 would be cheaper to operate than a LeClerc or a Challenger 2.

Dunno, but who would Egypt attack that they need to be controlled?

Well, we gave Iran a boatload of high tech gear and look where that got us, you know?
 
Honestly? I didn't want to be accused of going into Israel-wank. Israel loses in that they still have to guard their flank, but it's an easy flank to guard, what with the giant canal in the way. As long as they aren't corrupt idiots like in '73, there should be no big problem there, though as I said Lebanese adventurism is curtailed.

Otherwise, Israel benefits from a larger tourism industry and especially a home-grown petroleum industry. Gaza gets completely cut-off, eliminating the rockets from there and probably even reducing Hamas's influence. Also, control of Ofira (Sharm el-Sheikh) helps secure Israel's shipping to Eilat.

Egypt's tourism industry is now literally limited to the Pyramids, and receives no US aid, which may end up pushing it further into the Soviet sphere, but probably not too crazy far. Trade interest with the US and Europe also suffers, leading to slightly bigger problems than the missed $60 million with Israel.

On the other hand, peace in the Middle East remains completely impossible. Someone needed to make the first step, and it won't be Jordan, Syria, or Lebanon (Jordan because they won't be the first, Syria because they're even more of a military dictatorship and need an external enemy to survive, and Lebanon because they're a Syrian sock puppet - note that they don't really hate Israel yet because there's been no 20 year occupation of the south)

EDIT: Also, the continued presence of an easy external enemy further props up Egypt's military dictatorship. The Brotherhood of Islam probably doesn't get as strong.

Egyptian tourism will be ok with 'just' the Pyramids. They're one of the biggest tourist destinations in the world.

The real economic effects are going to be food. Egypt has received heavily subsidized American wheat ever since Camp David. Without this Egypt will not be able to fund its own food subsidies, which is going to lead to problems like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Egyptian_Bread_Riots

Also the Brotherhood could be strengthened by this. The Pan-Arabists have failed both to retake the Sinai and the economy is probably heading towards complete meltdown. I think quite a few factions have a reasonable chance of taking power ITTL and Sadat will be really struggling.
 
I don't know...you might want to qualify that statement. I'm pretty sure you're talking about new build tanks, though I can just feel someone waiting in the wings saying: "Turkey and Israel have M-60s and they're cheaper!"

I just can't see why an M1 would be cheaper to operate than a LeClerc or a Challenger 2.



Well, we gave Iran a boatload of high tech gear and look where that got us, you know?

New or fully rebuilt tanks of the most modern types.

The deal with US gear is that foreign operators buy into the US logistics system, so in effect buy in bulk and the US warehouses these parts until needed, reducing the overheads for all concerned. While the numbers are big they are small compared to the competition.
 
Interesting

Egyptian tourism will be ok with 'just' the Pyramids. They're one of the biggest tourist destinations in the world.

The real economic effects are going to be food. Egypt has received heavily subsidized American wheat ever since Camp David. Without this Egypt will not be able to fund its own food subsidies, which is going to lead to problems like this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Egyptian_Bread_Riots

Also the Brotherhood could be strengthened by this. The Pan-Arabists have failed both to retake the Sinai and the economy is probably heading towards complete meltdown. I think quite a few factions have a reasonable chance of taking power ITTL and Sadat will be really struggling.

That is a good assessment of what Egypt may struggle to face in the face of this, it didn't help that the Soviet Union during this time period also exhibited similar problems to the point that they even imported some grains from the US. However, if this affectively made relations with the Soviets closer and US more distant, can't the USSR just push one of its major agricultural exporting satellites such as Hungary, Czechoslovakia and even Cuba to divvy it up for the sake of overall Communist interests in the region?

Neither party really gives a shit about Gaza.

It is certainly true that Gaza, especially Gaza City was and still is considered more of a strategic headache by both Israel and Egypt's government. But the I still see if Israeli territory surrounded Gaza I wouldn't see the Israeli government being so readily wanting to destabilize the region, while keeping Gush Katif as a source of securing the area while providing jobs a higher prerogative.

That means that IOTL's peace with Egypt had relatively little effect on Israel's international relations (at least as far as I know), so no peace won't do a whole lot. Hell, no invasion of Lebanon may even make Israel that much more popular in the world.

It made both countries appear to be good guys who are willing to compromise their interests for the sake of peace and stability in the region. Certainly Lebanon is a bigger scare for Israeli perception within Europe and the Americas but it was still the Camp David Accords that created a heightened sense of Israel as a civilized state that set them up for the PR fall.

@Grimm Reaper

I do agree with you that letting go of the Sinai created the diplomatic stability and security (barring the Intefadas) to create an atmosphere needed for international business to more readily accept investing into Israel that subsequently lead to the economy booming during the Internet Bubble. This is why I believe keeping the Sinai would lead Israel's economy down a similar path to what Argentina had under Peronist doctrine with the added bonus of being fairly large arms exporter. I wonder if such a situation of relative isolation would lead to an atmosphere of the Knesset appropriating funds needed to produce the IAI Lavi? I'm aware that would be also only possible if the US DoD, State Department along with whatever Congressional Committee for appropriating arms funding wouldn't bat an eye over Israel's affairs with Lockheed since they figure Israel would not be able to produce nor export the Lavi in sufficient enough numbers to risk impacting F-16 sales.
 
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