WI Israel is defeated and ceases to exist in the 60's-80's?

[Ismailov]

I'd assume through invasions by Arab states, since I quite doubt the Palestinian resistance would ever be strong enough to achieve it on its own in this time-period.

But yeah, in short, what would a Palestinian state look like under such circumstances? I'd imagine a big problem would be the status of the West Bank.

 

[Orry]

Jordan claimed the west bank as Jordanian until 1988..... its claim was recognised by very few countries - the UK was one but it could have been an interesting 'issue'

 

[Alex Richards]

This is going to get complicated, but I think it depends on if it's before or after Black September in Jordan (1970).

If before (or quite soon afterwards), we can presume that Jordan is one of the invading powers and, being so soon after (or even prior to) the initial loss of the west bank they probably retain. They'd have issues with Palestinian nationalism of course, but might be able to contain that.

If after the mid-70s, there's not a hope in hell of Jordan getting the West Bank back, but Hussein might be able to get the family's position of 'guardian of the holy places' in Jerusalem (basically meaning a degree of extraterratorial rights over the Dome of the Rock and so forth) back. In the long run, Jordan is probably better off with most of the Palestinian refugees currently in Jordan returning to Palestine removing the largest issue within Jordan at the moment.

 

[Minchandre]

But yeah, in short, what would a Palestinian state look like under such circumstances? I'd imagine a big problem would be the status of the West Bank.

Kind of like a big blank, as it wouldn't exist. None of the Arab states have ever been interested in establishing a Palestinian state. In the event that Israel was overrun, Jordan would annex the eastern portion, Syria the north, and Egypt the south. Egypt might go so far as to establish a puppet-state (though it's unlikely, since they'd already annexed their "All-Palestine Government" into the United Arab Republic in 1959), but there is no way that Syria or Jordan are going to be doing anything aside from annexing what they each regard as their rightful land.

EDIT: Addendum: Jordan will probably expel at least some of the Palestinians from their slice of the pie; Syria and Egypt will take them in. Expect any Palestinian nationalism to be put down, hard, now that there's no political advantage to it.

 

[SonOfFreedom]

Level 5 ASB. Meaning Israel wins even more land.

 

[Ismailov]

Level 5 ASB. Meaning Israel wins even more land.

I'm pretty sure there exists a situation where Israel could be militarily defeated and its statehood ended.

One thing in particular is how all the Palestinian factions would treat each other post-victory. You'd have Fatah (of course), the PFLP, and a whole bunch of other groups (Abu Nidal, Palestine Liberation Front, etc.) backed by different countries. Then of course there's the issue of how they'd treat Arab states annexing the territories of the former Israel and how said groups would respond.

 

[thekingsguard]

What about the Jews? What happens to them, where do they go? What would the future of Zionism be?

 

[Ismailov]

What about the Jews?

I'd say it's quite likely that some Jewish paramilitary group(s) would emerge against the Arabs. I'm not sure what the Western attitude to them would be, since Jordan and after Nasser's death Egypt were not hostile to US interests. It'd be a rather significant political issue in the Western world though, since various Jewish groups and immigrants/exiles will without doubt be very vocal in support for said paramilitaries and would organize solidarity campaigns, donations, etc.

 

[von hitchofen]

best case scenario - emigrate to Europe/USA

worst case scenario - Holocaust Vol 2, pogroms galore

would the rest of the world, France, UK, USA stand by and say "oh, well - sorry guys, you blew it - never mind..."

I don't think so...the annihilation of a nation state as powerful as Israel would have massive ramifications worldwide...

 

[NKVD]

I somehow suspect that a "Holocaust Vol 2" would be very unlikely.

 

[von hitchofen]

less efficient, perhaps, but just as bloody

of course the Arabs would be fine with 3 million Jews to rule over, who have plenty of experience of improvised weaponry and insurgent warfare not to mention armour, aircraft, and fissile material

neither side is going to play nice

of course with Israel as a nation state gone the Middle East will become a nirvana of peace, religious harmony, democracy, civil rights, racial tolerance and Arab brotherhood

best to let the Jews win - the enormous losses the Arab states would sustain in overwhelming Israel in 1967-1973 would make them vengeful enough as it is...

an Arab victory would be a mass grave - for both sides

 

[Cook]

I somehow suspect that a "Holocaust Vol 2" would be very unlikely.

Given that Egyptian state media in 1967 was declaring that they ‘would drive the Jews into the sea’ and ‘drive over the bodies of the Zionist dogs to Tel Aviv’ and that the troops forming the front line of Nasser’s army in Sinai had just returned from the Yemen Civil War where they’d indiscriminately used mustard gas on Yemeni villages, killing some 100,000 people, a bloodbath wasn’t unlikely at all.

 

[Atomo]

Given that Egyptian state media in 1967 was declaring that they ‘would drive the Jews into the sea’ and ‘drive over the bodies of the Zionist dogs to Tel Aviv’ and that the troops forming the front line of Nasser’s army in Sinai had just returned from the Yemen Civil War where they’d indiscriminately used mustard gas on Yemeni villages, killing some 100,000 people, a bloodbath wasn’t unlikely at all.

When does the Israeli nuclear option come into play? Lets say 1973 goes worse, the armored units on the Golan Heights can't regroup and the Syrians and their playmates are a bit more aggressive in the advances they make.

How bad does it have to get for Golda Meir to say yes and make sure Israel is never threatened again in the most final way possible?

If they do decide to use nukes this leads to another possible type of defeat, a moral one. On the world stage and/or in public opinion how will it look if in 1973 Israel uses nukes in either a tactical or strategic way?

 

[Cook]

When does the Israeli nuclear option come into play?

Sometime after 1967. An Israeli defeat that threatens their survival is signifigantly unlikely after '67 anyway.

 

[BigWillyG]

When does the Israeli nuclear option come into play? Lets say 1973 goes worse, the armored units on the Golan Heights can't regroup and the Syrians and their playmates are a bit more aggressive in the advances they make.

How bad does it have to get for Golda Meir to say yes and make sure Israel is never threatened again in the most final way possible?

If they do decide to use nukes this leads to another possible type of defeat, a moral one. On the world stage and/or in public opinion how will it look if in 1973 Israel uses nukes in either a tactical or strategic way?

If I remember right by '73 the IDF has at least a couple small nukes that could be air dropped or ground detonated "WorldWar" style in the face of advancing Syrian or Egyptian troops.

 

[von hitchofen]

If I remember right by '73 the IDF has at least a couple small nukes that could be air dropped or ground detonated "WorldWar" style in the face of advancing Syrian or Egyptian troops.

Six plutonium-implosion devices in the 15kt to 20kt range, the first one manufactured c.1968 - if they had been used they would have been "Masada weapons"

the window for the Arabs crushing Israel without nukes is vanishingly small if Six Day War goes as OTL - Egypt et al would have to get their pre-emptive strike in first in May 1967.

 

[BELFAST]

I imagine a lot of Palestinians would return and want their land and homes back.
Going to be a mess.
could be a lot of Israelis might want to leave or possible be put in to refuge camps.

 

[LHB]

What is the likelihood of Western, particularly American, intervention if it looks like Israel is at serious risk of being driven into the sea? At the minimum there are the US naval assets in the Mediterranean throughout the possible period that could do something.

 

[NothingNow]

What is the likelihood of Western, particularly American, intervention if it looks like Israel is at serious risk of being driven into the sea?

Pretty damn high for the Americans. I'd imagine that the French and West Germans might get involved as well. (The French wanting to keep some good customers, and the Germans acting out of guilt maybe?)

If they can operate out Aircraft of Cyprus, and from the carriers, that might be enough to tip the balance. It'd possibly even be Rolling Thunder, but with fewer places to hide.

 

[modelcitizen]

The result would be a blood-streaked fractured composition of Syrian, Jordanian and Egyptian puppet factions, with intermittent looting and the occasional discovery of mass graves. The removal of debris and body-parts from the beaches takes months if not years.

I'd give Nasser about a year to live. I think Jewish mafia still would be around forty or fifty years ago, with perhaps a Murder Inc veteran or two setting something up.