How would Pan-Arabism fare in relation to socialism, Islamism or some form of western democracy?
Lets say the Israelis nearly ecircled Cairo and Damascus. The Israei then destroy electrical, food, water supplies and the transportation infrastructure by artillery and air strkes before withdrawing....
My guess is that both governments collapse and the Islamacists take over. They would be seen as the only option since the biggest western democracy openly backed Israel and the quasi socialist governments backed by the USSR not only failed to produce a military victory, but produced a disasterous defeat.
Maybe....
1972: Revenge war would need to be launched with out Soviet military advise and with only partially equipped militaries (Soviets refuse to sell the latest equipment to the Islamacists). Aside from a few face saving artillery duels, the war never really gets off the ground and ther Islamacists decide to expand first. The Islamacists in Cairo (far more numerous and zealous than their Damascus counter parts) take the lead....
1973: The Jordanian monarchy appeases the Islamacists throught legislating sharia friendly laws and by giving a cabinet level position to a radical imam.
1975: The Saudi monarchy is pushed to collapse. Only the intervention of U.S. forces, who are far more interested in Saudi oil than Saudi princes
per se saves it. The US is then involved in a nasty guerilla war in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. decides to occupy only the oil producting regions. Though this does keep foreign troops out of Mecca and Medina, it leads to the
de facto establishment of two Saudi States. It also gives the Islamic guerillas large safe havens for en endless war.
1977: Conscription returns to the USA, so does alot of social upheavel. In the end, however, the USA needs oil so US forces stay in Saudi Arabia. Islamacists cant force US and Saudi royalists from oil fields, so they look for other targets. Gulf countries are too small and too tightly controled to make good guerilla country. They are bypassed in favor of Indonesia.
1979: Islamcist guerilla movements are spread through out Indonesia and Aceh is declares itself an independent Islamic state.