WI: Israel doesn't return Sinai

From my perspective, the Sinai is a net drain for Israel really: no rapprochement with Egypt, damaged relations with US, and a hostile populace leading to the possibility of a prolonged war like Lebanon (think how ISIS is there right now, which would only expand if they were fighting against a Jewish authority).

But what if Israel doesn't return Sinai, what would happen? The above may not be so much of an issue because of its sparse population. Could the area become more Jewish over time if settlers are brought in?
 
Hmm. Given the Sinai's relatively small Arab population, I expect Israel would take a similar strategy to what they did in the Golan Heights: annexation, give the locals citizenship, let settlers flow in.

Looking at the climate of the Sinai (mostly desert, but parts of it are marginal), I expect that Israel would have more success at irrigation and agriculture in the region (compare OTL agriculture on both sides of the border between Israel and Egypt), and thus the Sinai would have a higher present-day population ITTL than it does IOTL.

My random Sinai population guess:
OTL 2017 – 1,400,000 Arabs
TTL 2017 – 500,000 Arabs; 2,500,000 Jews

What's the ultimate impact on security from the Sinai remaining part of Israel? I don't know. My guess would be that they have less friendly relations with Egypt than in OTL, but this doesn't significantly impact security because of the Suez Canal being an excellent natural border. As for home-grown terrorism in the Sinai, I don't see this as being a major security threat if the Arabs there have full rights. Compare with the OTL situation in the Golan.

One advantage from of keeping the Sinai, from the perspective of Israel's security, is that a Hamas-like group would then find it much more difficult to gain/retain power in Gaza. No smuggling tunnels.

Finally, the U.S. reaction to Israel keeping the Sinai. I don't know what this would be– not familiar enough with the geopolitics of this era.
 
From my perspective, the Sinai is a net drain for Israel really: no rapprochement with Egypt, damaged relations with US, and a hostile populace leading to the possibility of a prolonged war like Lebanon (think how ISIS is there right now, which would only expand if they were fighting against a Jewish authority).

But what if Israel doesn't return Sinai, what would happen? The above may not be so much of an issue because of its sparse population. Could the area become more Jewish over time if settlers are brought in?

It depends really.
 
Does this mean no Camp David sparing Sadat's assassination? Does Carter then focus harder on Iran to correct a failed Middle East policy? Maybe Ford won re-election since Carter was the major catalyst for the "land for peace" deal that arose. Ford as president during Iran's revolution could be interesting.
 
If the Israelis kept it it wouldn't be hard for their settlers to swamp the local bedouins.

Sinai would be a hard to manage in their decade or so. But I think from a strategic standpoint Israel would benefit from it eventually.

They could set up a port facility on the Mediterranean.

Outlet for submarines in the Red Sea.

Not to mention the psychological benefits-you know Mount Sinai and Israels founding origin.
 
Given how Israel's Bedouins are treated, I'd also say things in Sinai are pretty smooth.

As for relations with Egypt? less so.

US relations? They take a dip, but in the end, they are one of our only reliable allies in the region, especially in the 70s and 80s.
 
What else do you want to know?

I really do think the idea of the Sinai being well integrated into Israel is an interesting one, especially since given how warm the relations with Israeli Bedouins are in OTL, there is a good chance that once things settle down in the Sinai, we could see the native Bedouin tribes become just as staunch supporters of Israel as their OTL Israeli counterparts. It might also help that migration between the Sinai and Negev Bedouin tribes would be unbroken by the OTL Israeli-Egyptian border.

One oddball idea - open the Sinai to Palestinian settlement. If Israel decides they don't want to try and settle the Sinai themselves for whatever reason, and still don't want to give it back to Egypt, setting up some sort of system where Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank can give up their homes in exchange for land in the Sinai might be interesting.

What happens with the Suez Canal now that it's pretty much the border between Egypt and Israel in this scenario?

As others have pointed out, having possession of Mt. Sinai and the various Jewish wilderness holy sites would have some very interesting impacts on the Jewish faith. For the local Bedouins, I could easily see some of the more clever groups setting themselves up to make some cash of the tourists and pilgrims as guides. This combined with the various coastal resorts, should prove an economic boom to all parties involved, more so than it did for OTL Egypt given their focus on developing tourism has always been more focused on areas closer to the Nile.

Lastly, there is one very big net positive to all of this, albiet one the butterflies may have taken care of eventually: with Israel in firm control of the Sinai, it never becomes base to several rogue groups like it has in OTL, including ISIS.
 
Another thing is that isreal would continue to exploit Abu Rods (spel?) oil field, which otl provided for *all* of Israel's oil needs. Which, while be very good for the economy, might hamper the search for alternative energy sources like solar power.
 
Hmmmm. Effects...

1) A more developed Sinai (probably). However, the Sinai almost certainly doesn't get to import water from the Nile as it does today. As such, it's likely to support less population and certain sorts of development won't be economical.

2) Egypt is still an enemy of Israel and the pan-Arab alliance isn't disrupted by the "betrayal" of Egypt - in OTL this was a huuuuuuuuge shake-up of the alliances in the Middle East. It really weakened the Soviet position in the region and it really weakened Syria, Jordan and Iraq. People are still upset at the Egyptians for their "backstab".

3) Since Sinai is still a bone of contention, the US won't be giving Israel quite so much support. It may also not be supporting Egypt so much (especially if the US and Israel are still close). So a less well-armed and less American Middle East.

What happens with the Suez Canal now that it's pretty much the border between Egypt and Israel in this scenario?

I am really not sure. The Sinai canal is a vital international trade and military artery, so likely the US throws its weight around to ensure that the Egypt-Israel relations don't disrupt the canal. I would bet that this means that Egypt would end up being recognized as the "owner" and controller of the canal as a commercial entity and that Israel and Egypt would maintain the infrastructure jointly while working to ensure that neither party could militarily dominate the canal.

I bet that what the US would want is for Israel to withdraw from the canal bank. (Egypt withdrawing from the canal bank is impossible - the canal needs freshwater from the Nile, so even if Israel control both banks of the canal, they don't control the canal unless they control the Nile, which is hugely impractical and undesirable for everyone.)

One oddball idea - open the Sinai to Palestinian settlement. If Israel decides they don't want to try and settle the Sinai themselves for whatever reason, and still don't want to give it back to Egypt, setting up some sort of system where Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank can give up their homes in exchange for land in the Sinai might be interesting.

Israel was keenly settling the Sinai in OTL...

The idea of Sinai being a Palestinian state is kinda fun. But since accepting Sinai as "Palestine" means losing their claims elsewhere, I don't think the Palestinian establishment would be backing this idea. The Sinai Palestinians would likely be denigrated as Israeli stooges for betraying their homeland and for helping in the theft of Egyptian land...

fasquardon
 
Another thing is that isreal would continue to exploit Abu Rods (spel?) oil field, which otl provided for *all* of Israel's oil needs. Which, while be very good for the economy, might hamper the search for alternative energy sources like solar power.

Alternatively, think of the massive potential for solar farms in the Sinai.

Hmmmm. Effects...

1) A more developed Sinai (probably). However, the Sinai almost certainly doesn't get to import water from the Nile as it does today. As such, it's likely to support less population and certain sorts of development won't be economical.

2) Egypt is still an enemy of Israel and the pan-Arab alliance isn't disrupted by the "betrayal" of Egypt - in OTL this was a huuuuuuuuge shake-up of the alliances in the Middle East. It really weakened the Soviet position in the region and it really weakened Syria, Jordan and Iraq. People are still upset at the Egyptians for their "backstab".

3) Since Sinai is still a bone of contention, the US won't be giving Israel quite so much support. It may also not be supporting Egypt so much (especially if the US and Israel are still close). So a less well-armed and less American Middle East.

It would help that Israel has pretty much always been on the cutting edge for making the most use of a limited water supply, as well as desalinization tech.

I would still see some shakeups - Jordan for example, would probably still normalize relations with Israel - but if it does keep an Arab block that leans to the Soviets, the US will probably still back Israel, since its the only reliably pro-American ally in the region. Give it a generation, and American leadership will probably view Sinai no different than the Golan.

That said, less American involvement in the Middle East is a win in my book.

Israel was keenly settling the Sinai in OTL...

The idea of Sinai being a Palestinian state is kinda fun. But since accepting Sinai as "Palestine" means losing their claims elsewhere, I don't think the Palestinian establishment would be backing this idea. The Sinai Palestinians would likely be denigrated as Israeli stooges for betraying their homeland and for helping in the theft of Egyptian land...

fasquardon

I can't help but wonder how many might take up such an offer though - the prattling of the PLO and Hammas aside, the Palestinian people just seem to want to be left alone, to live in peace, and not see their kids either pushed around by an Israeli soldier or used as a human shield by the PLO.

Setting up the Sinai, or even a chunk of the Sinai, for Palestinian settlement might appeal to a good chunk of those Palestinians who just want to live their lives free from both sides of the conflict. It would rip the wind from a lot of sails in Palestinian leadership, and from an Israeli POV, allow a much greater focus on settling Israel proper as Palestinians voluntarily leave for Sinai, while getting a potentially friendly buffer state between them and Egypt.

That said, I don't see it as likely as the Sinai being settled by Jews and pro-Israel Bedouins
 
I can't help but wonder how many might take up such an offer though - the prattling of the PLO and Hammas aside, the Palestinian people just seem to want to be left alone, to live in peace, and not see their kids either pushed around by an Israeli soldier or used as a human shield by the PLO.

Setting up the Sinai, or even a chunk of the Sinai, for Palestinian settlement might appeal to a good chunk of those Palestinians who just want to live their lives free from both sides of the conflict. It would rip the wind from a lot of sails in Palestinian leadership, and from an Israeli POV, allow a much greater focus on settling Israel proper as Palestinians voluntarily leave for Sinai, while getting a potentially friendly buffer state between them and Egypt.

That said, I don't see it as likely as the Sinai being settled by Jews and pro-Israel Bedouins

The thing is, why? I think I could see a lot of Palestinians in Gaza moving out into Sinai if given the right incentives but the West Bank? It is considerably more fertile than anywhere in Sinai as far as I know and it would be much cheaper to develop the West Bank than Sinai. Your essentially suggesting that the Palestinians leave a land they have lived in for generations, which is fertile and has an excess of water (especially if it was shared more fairly), and move to a desert where the only industries are tourism, marginal agriculture, and oil. The latter might well not be open to Palestinians and the former two... well, I live in an area which has more or less the same problem in a slightly different (and less extreme flavour) and those industries wouldn't be enough to undermine Palestinian nationalism. Plus I can't see the Israeli right actually wanting the Palestinians to be moved in large numbers to Sinai, where it would be easier for them to regain contact with a still hostile Egypt.

teg
 
To my view the Sinai was returned to Egypt in order to assure that this most important soviet ally changes side to the US camp, that was the american objective. It was really about USSR irrespective of what the israelis wanted. So for this to happen, either the israelis refuse to obey the US, or Egypt does not accept the US conditions. Either way, Egypt continues to remain a soviet ally, there will be another round of rearmaments after 1973, and there will probably be a fifth arab-israeli war between Syria AND Egypt (and some of the still supporting arab world as there is not Egypt-Israel deal ITL) vs Israel. Egypt might go for nuke weapons as well to balance the israelis. Faced with the USSR backed Egypt and Syria in a continuous low intensity attritional war, i will not be surprised if Israel will not economically collapse in the eighties, despite the US pouring billions in. The israelis might end up returning Sinai back anyway, which from my pov is the best outcome for the USSR politically speaking and best for Egyptian-arab relations.

Would be interesting how the iranian revolution will affect all this. Will there still be an Iraq-Iran war, or the focus will be in the fight against the israelis with Iraq supporting Egypt and Syria (out of interest of course) and the new iranian mullahs perhaps joining in in some shape or form, although there will also be intense rivarly with the sunni arab camp. Also would be interesting how all this is affecting Afghanistan.
 
I am really not sure. The Sinai canal is a vital international trade and military artery, so likely the US throws its weight around to ensure that the Egypt-Israel relations don't disrupt the canal.
Is this realistic, especially if USSR backs Egypt? The canal was in OTL closed for 8 years would it not just stay closed? What can US really do with significant Soviet forces sat next door in Egypt?
 
I really do think the idea of the Sinai being well integrated into Israel is an interesting one, especially since given how warm the relations with Israeli Bedouins are in OTL, there is a good chance that once things settle down in the Sinai, we could see the native Bedouin tribes become just as staunch supporters of Israel as their OTL Israeli counterparts. It might also help that migration between the Sinai and Negev Bedouin tribes would be unbroken by the OTL Israeli-Egyptian border.

Only if they are also given citizenship. That's the real key to the whole thing.
 
Aren't the Bedouins in the Negev Israeli citizens? Why wouldn't the ones in the Sinai be extended citizenship?

I mean to say, Israel would find friends in the populations they extend citizenship to, and not in the populations they refuse to extend citizenship to. They haven't been consistent in their policies for this. I do think they'd offer it to the Sinai (quick searchings don't tell me if they did when they had occupied/annexed it), but it's no guarantee, they didn't offer it to the West Bank or Gaza.
 
Is this realistic, especially if USSR backs Egypt? The canal was in OTL closed for 8 years would it not just stay closed? What can US really do with significant Soviet forces sat next door in Egypt?

Three things:

1) The Soviets benefit from a working Sinai canal as well.

2) The Soviets cutting off the Sinai canal is so deeply injurious to US and European trade that we're talking about both having a Cuban-missile-level meltdown. Expect some very serious nuclear brinkmanship if the Soviets make a move like this and the end of civilization as we know it if the Soviets don't pack it in when confronted.

3) The Egyptians make a good deal of money from the fees ships use to pass through the canal. The Soviet-Egyptian alliance was always one of the Egyptians ruthlessly using the Soviets. Why exactly would the Egyptians hurt their own pocketbooks for the benefit of some cuckoo Soviet power-play?

fasquardon
 
I mean to say, Israel would find friends in the populations they extend citizenship to, and not in the populations they refuse to extend citizenship to. They haven't been consistent in their policies for this. I do think they'd offer it to the Sinai (quick searchings don't tell me if they did when they had occupied/annexed it), but it's no guarantee, they didn't offer it to the West Bank or Gaza.
There's a few reasons they didn't try and offer it to the West Bank Palestinians, one being Jordan having invaded and annexed it for a short period of time and the fact that most 'Palestinians' as they are today are the descendants of those who tried to 'push the Jews into the sea' and failed, fleeing into Jordan where they stayed as refugee's for awhile, before they were kicked back over the border after attempting a uprising/armed coup against the Jordanian Monarchy.

Fast-forward a few decades, many failed attempts by Israel to make peace with them/treaties and a lot of terror attacks (plus the Palestinian government being ardently anti-Israel and punishing anybody who 'works with the Jews' and you have a recipe that ain't gonna get better anytime soon.

Gaza was and is made up of territory captured by Egypt at the same time, which they installed a puppet government in, and has since been taken over by a terrorist group that insists on using civilian structures to launch missiles at Israel and co-opts any needed constructions or 'relief' supplies to build tunnels....

(this is just from what I've gathered in terms of info, might have some flaws, but am confident that it's at least semi-accurate)
 
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