WI Israel deploys nuclear weapons in the Yom Kippur War

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_option
Nope. Many of those who speak of said option are Jewish.

Why?

If Israel uses nuclear weapons to try to go out in a blaze of glory, that will totally eliminate their goodwill in the wider world. Said goodwill will not be eliminated if they refrain from using nukes. They will only bring down even more trouble on their heads.

Let me quantify it.

WITH Samson option (nukes are used): Israel destroyed, international outcry over the use of nukes by Israel.
WITHOUT Samson option: Israel destroyed, no international outcry.

Israel is worse off with the Samson option than without it.
 
Why?

If Israel uses nuclear weapons to try to go out in a blaze of glory, that will totally eliminate their goodwill in the wider world. Said goodwill will not be eliminated if they refrain from using nukes. They will only bring down even more trouble on their heads.

Let me quantify it.

WITH Samson option (nukes are used): Israel destroyed, international outcry over the use of nukes by Israel.
WITHOUT Samson option: Israel destroyed, no international outcry.

Israel is worse off with the Samson option than without it.


I think if they get to the point that the Samson option would be used, they don't really give a shit what the international community thinks of them.
 

Pangur

Donor
I think if they get to the point that the Samson option would be used, they don't really give a shit what the international community thinks of them.

You loose sight of the Jewish communities outside of Israel - they are the ones who have to suffer the consequences of this.
 
I think if they get to the point that the Samson option would be used, they don't really give a shit what the international community thinks of them.

To be honest, that is really idiotic of them.

They don't care that they're obliterating the chances of Israel being reestablished in the future?

Even if Israel is destroyed in war, there still might be enough goodwill in the international community to get Israel reestablished in the future - IF Israel uses no nukes. If they use the nuclear Samson option, said goodwill vanishes. As does any chance, no matter how large or small, of the future reestablishment of Israel.

If Israel uses nukes, the international community will throw its support wholeheartedly behind the Arab nations.

EDIT: Ninja'd on that last bit.
 
Last edited:

Pangur

Donor
To be honest, that is really idiotic of them.

They don't care that they're obliterating the chances of Israel being reestablished in the future?

Even if Israel is destroyed in war, there still might be enough goodwill in the international community to get Israel reestablished in the future - IF Israel uses no nukes. If they use the nuclear Samson option, said goodwill vanishes. As does any chance, no matter how large or small, of the future reestablishment of Israel.

If Israel uses nukes, the international community will throw its support wholeheartedly behind the Arab nations.

EDIT: Ninja'd.

Only Ninja'd on the last bit - I did think of posting the first bit of your post as well but was not happy with how I was wording it
 
FWIW "international goodwill" in the wake of a war that resulted in the destruction of the State of Israel is worth less than zero. The general line of thinking in the Arab world was that if they defeated Israel, that is occupied the country, the vast majority of the Jews would be expelled - certainly those who came or whose ancestors came to Israel/Palestine after WW2. Assuming that the cut-off was the end of WWI (when Palestine passed in to "Imperialist"/non-Muslim hands), perhaps >80% of the population of Israel is kicked out with little more than the clothes on their backs. where would they go - an interesting question....would European countries or the USA be happy to absorb several million penniless Jewish refugees? In any case I don't see the Europeans, or the USA, or the USSR (who recognized Israel promptly in 1948 BTW) EVER putting pressure on the Arabs to re-establish a Jewish state.

In a scenario where the Israelis might really contemplate using nukes, it would be a question of really losing the war & going out of business, or maybe a situation where losses are so heavy that shrinkage to the 1948 lines or less might occur. If Israel uses nukes and survives, it has the "postwar" diplomatic issues to deal with. If it loses, and therefore does not survive, it has no problems. You have to be "alive" to have problems. IMHO target selection will depend on the tactical situation, while the issue of "war termination" was always discussed vis-a-vis a US/NAT vs USSR/Warsaw Pact nuke exchange, it is less important here. If Cairo & Damascus are gone, any Arab armies in the field will fall apart quickly, and the Israelis can advance to the Suez Canal & Golan (plus) to defensible areas while Syria and Egypt sort themselves out.

While longer term the USSR might take Arab governments under their nuclear umbrella, in 1967 or 1973 I don't see the USSR nuking Israel in this scenario. Too little gain & too much risk of setting off the "big one". I have heard unsubstantiated talk that the Israelis by 1973 had plans for strikes in Southern Russia (doable by F4s on 1-way or 1 /1/2 way missions) & while the USSR could certainly slag Israel would they trade Odessa, maybe Stalingrad for that satisfaction??

As a final thought, if the Arabs ever defeated Israel in 1967/73 (total occupation) it is not unrealistic to expect that there would be a lot of bad things happening to a large number of Israeli civilians in the immediate aftermath.
 
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