WI Islam had never existed

[Malta]

Well, what are views on the inevitable evolution of Rhomaion? It seems to me at some point the Empire will collapse by a combination of internal or external pressure. But if it can survive the Turks it has a chance of surviving as a nation of some kind.

Though the massive amount of butterflies involved just how this happens is only vaguely interpreted able.

 

[Elfwine]

Well, what are views on the inevitable evolution of Rhomaion? It seems to me at some point the Empire will collapse by a combination of internal or external pressure. But if it can survive the Turks it has a chance of surviving as a nation of some kind.

Though the massive amount of butterflies involved just how this happens is only vaguely interpreted able.

The bold part is the problem. Rhomania could be anywhere from a modern great power to being defeated later or earlier than OTL.

And the Turks are not the only possible how for the latter.

 

[ctayfor]

If Islam never existed, you end up with the world looking possibly like this.

Rather like that map

 

[EmperorSimeon]

The above map is one of General Finley's. It is his vision of a world without islam. Below is the scenario:

In 570 Axumite Viceroy Abraha marched north from Yemen and conquered the city of of Mecca. The conquest had a massive impact on the world for the Axumite conquest of the Hejaz would create a world without Islam. In the absence of Islam the Roman Empire was able to rise again from the massive destruction inflicted upon it by the Sassanian Empire during the Roman Persian War of 602-628. While the Roman Empire was able to reassert itself in Southern Europe, the Balkans, the Levant, and North Africa the Sassanian Empire would stumble from civil war to civil war for decades, leaving it ripe for conquest from the East by Nomadic people's pushed westwards by the expansion of the Tang Dynasty. Taking advantage of Persia's lack luster states the Roman Empire would establish a protectorate over the Principate of Iberia in an attempt to control trade in the Caspian Sea. In 813 the Protectorate General to Pacify the West had unintentionally spread Tang rule all the way to the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. Contact between the Roman Empire and the Chinese Empire would be fleeting for the first few decades that they were aware of each others presence on the opposite sides of the Caspian, until diplomatic missions were sent by both parties. In the coming decades the trans-Caspian trade would flourish as not only goods, but religion, ideologies, and knowledge spread as well. In the mid eleventh century the mighty Tang Dynasty would collapse and fracture into a number of warring states for a quarter of a century before being reunified under the Song Dynasty. The long lasting Tang rule of Central Asia had established a precedent for Chinese rule over the region and it (especially the region surrounding the Caspian) was considered a vital and core region of China.

The Romans would adopt Chinese metallurgy, paper making, the printing press, and eventually (through covert means) gun powder. The massive production of iron ore for the creation of steel required a massive fuel source which led to massive deforestation in the Balkans and the eventual need to find a substitute for this fuel source. This in turn led to the adoption of coal over charcoal and timber. The need to mine more coal lead to the need to pump water from coal mines which lead to a series of water pumps first manually powered but eventually being supplanted by steam powered water pumps fueled by the very coal that was being mined originally for the purpose of making more steel. At the same time that this was happening in the Roman Empire the Chinese Empire was undergoing similar industrialization.

The Sino-Roman Industrial revolution further facilitated trade between the East and West as the steam engine resulted in ships that could travel faster than every before and facilitated the creation of the locomotive. Industrialization spread outwards from China and Rome and would be adopted by their neighbors at varying paces. The Kingdoms of Briton and Germany were among the first European states to industrialize after the Roman Empire. Thanks to industrialization the Chinese Empire forced open the strategic trade route of the Straits of Malacca humbling the empire of Srivijaya, while the Roman Empire similarly forced open the Mandab Strait.

The New World was discovered and by a Europe and Asia that were already at least partially industrialized. The natives had less of a chance than OTL to maintain independence, with many dying from small pox and the Black Plague. The continents of the New World were divided between the Great Empires with little regard for the natives, though the Chinese and the Romans weren't the worst subjugators and actually provided opportunities for the natives to rise in their societies as long as they became Sinicized or Romanized. In New Bavaria, New Occitania, and Vinnland the natives had little opportunity for upwards mobility.

Not long after the colonization of the New World came the colonization and division of Africa by the European Powers who mostly wanted to keep the Chinese from getting the resources and conquering the continent. Not all of Africa was conquered by the Europeans. The Axumite Empire and the Third Wagadou Empire were vassalized by the Roman Empire, the Kingdom of Mapungubwe was vassalized by China, and the Empire of Kongo is fully independent of Europe and China.

 

[LSCatilina]

Well, what are views on the inevitable evolution of Rhomaion? It seems to me at some point the Empire will collapse by a combination of internal or external pressure. But if it can survive the Turks it has a chance of surviving as a nation of some kind.

Though the massive amount of butterflies involved just how this happens is only vaguely interpreted able.

Well, that's the main issue. "No Islam", is a bit like saying "No Rome". It's an event so important and so early that is impossible to say what happen at long term.

At short term tough : ERE is weakened by a long war with Sassanids, even if not at the extent of these.
They wouldn't be able to pull a Justinian over Spain or Italy (even if they can revert some losses) and would, once recovering, more likely turn themselves to more threatening potential enemies : Slavs, Bulgars, Khazars and maybe Scandinavians going down the Volga. Without forgotting the Perisans that could recover at some time either.

I would likely see the Byzantines, if victorious and avoiding the infighting of OTL VIII/IX centuries, expanding in Black Sea rather than Mediterranean.
With Frankish growth westwards (with Ravenna likely continuing its course towards more autonomy, if not independence), a possible Visigothic awakening (Due to less disruption on Mediterranean trade)...I don't see Byzantium pulling a Justinian, more likely having an active diplomacy that could (why not) sattelize Lombards rather than having an imperial rival.

 

[LSCatilina]

The above map is one of General Finley's. It is his vision of a world without islam. Below is the scenario:

The map and scenario can be good, it doesn't remove the all suffering from same defects : too much wanked, too much convergent, and too much anachronisms.

 

[katchen]

I'll be somewhat conservative and say that the Hepthalites from Afghanistan could conquer Persia from the Sassanids. Which might put Buddhism in Iran's future. Iran (and Mesopotamia and Arabia could do worse.

 

[LSCatilina]

I'll be somewhat conservative and say that the Hepthalites from Afghanistan could conquer Persia from the Sassanids. Which might put Buddhism in Iran's future. Iran (and Mesopotamia and Arabia could do worse.

Weren't they already in decline in the VIIth century? Divided and tributary to neighbours? A revival is still possible, but Persia could recover in the same time.

 

[LSCatilina]

I found a good map about Arab coinage in early medieval France, compared to visigothic and byzantines ones.

 

[Simreeve]

Don't forget that Nestorian Christianism was relatively strong in Persia, despite persecutions : while not the most probable event, a Nestorian Persia does have more chances to happen than Buddhism that didn't have roots there OTL.

Unless the new dynasty that establishes itself comes from the eastern borderlands, where Buddhism did already have a role?

 

[Wendell]

One wonders if this might have the effect of excelerating the age of exploration. If Mediterranean trade is essentially countrolled by one country, and most other states in the area following a different form of Christianity, and North Sea trade is more dominant, then opportunities might exist for, say, the English to get to Newfoundland before 1300...

 

[The Ubbergeek]

Unless the new dynasty that establishes itself comes from the eastern borderlands, where Buddhism did already have a role?

The thing is, buddhism was not unknown indeed to the Iranian world - Ghandara, Soghdiane and around, the northern peoples.

Granted, the persians may see them as country bumpkins, or something...

But it was in the iranian cultural sphere.

 

[Basileus Giorgios]

The big question is what do you replace Islam with. The speed with which Islam spread suggests there were religious vacuums that were waiting to be filled and if that is the case then something else is going to come along and fill that vacuum.

The Arabs conquered very rapidly, yes, but Islam's spread happened much more slowly. Remember that Egypt and Syria probably kept their Christian majorities up until the tenth or eleventh centuries.

It seems to me at some point the Empire will collapse by a combination of internal or external pressure.

Why?

I mean, a collapse certainly could happen, but there's absolutely no reason to assume it's going to based on trends ongoing in the sixth and seventh centuries. The late antique period saw, in all aspects of the empire (apart from the religious one, to some extent) a convergence and coming together that had never been seen before.

The Romans certainly could collapse at some point in this no-Muhammad TL, there's fifteen centuries for them to do it in, after all. But I don't see it as being somehow predestined. As with China and Iran, there's nothing really to stop Roman civilisation from going on and on.

As for likely changes: without the shock of Arab conquests, there won't be any immediate pressure for the reforms of the military that took place between about 650 and 750, so we keep the Diocletian-style garrison and field armies in use. I reckon it's quite possible we could see more Exarchs placed in troublesome "semi-detached" areas, Armenia seems the most likely candidate for an Exarch.

The religious question could go either way, really: the only certain thing is that the Emperors are going to find it impossible to satisfy everyone. I think it's more likely effort will be put in to satisfying Egypt and Syria than Italy. We probably see more Justinian-style depositions of uppity Popes, with an attempt to keep the Papal office very firmly under the thumb of the Emperor/Exarch, although distance will always make this problematic. I can see local churches going so far as to sponsor imperial pretenders who have the right doctrinal views.

Sooner or later, accommodation of a sort will probably be reached. I don't see an Empire built by and for landowners collapsing internally, because this would go very much against the interests of these same landowners, who of course all operated within the same cultural and economic sphere, regardless of their views on religion. Any religious accommodation will be hammered out by local potentates in mind, although I think it'll probably be the ninth or tenth century before any sort of pragmatism wins out. With a POD after 600, it's going to be pretty difficult, I would suggest, for anything but a broadly Chalcedonian formula to end up on top, but who knows.

As an aside, where has the unusually incorrect term of "Rhomaion" come from?

 

[Derek Jackson]

In otl much classic knowledge came back to Europe via Arab Moslems, could that knowledge and interest have been lost.

 

[Elfwine]

In otl much classic knowledge came back to Europe via Arab Moslems, could that knowledge and interest have been lost.

There's still the Byzantine Empire, happily preserving and copying it.

And if the Arabs spill out anyway, they may well still do what they did OTL.

 

[LSCatilina]

In otl much classic knowledge came back to Europe via Arab Moslems, could that knowledge and interest have been lost.

It's more complex, while OTL it did passed mainly this way, copy and use of Greek texts are known since the Early Middle Ages (considering that, by classical, you meant Greek as Latin texts were saved from oblivion thanks to western Christianity).

Furthermore, the Arabs took their own knowledge from Byzantine and Mediterranean realms more generally. With a lasting contact between Constantinople, Mediterranea as a whole, I don't see why the Greek corpus wouldn't have reached Western Europe eventually (maybe earlier than OTL, as while Greek were already used, Muslim corpus was kind of suspect at first).

Now, what could have been delayed is far less the classical knowledge, than the advancements the Arabo-Muslims scholars developed from these in the IX-XII centuries, being discoverers where Europeans was rather more preservers (even if they discovered from their own).

 

[Widukind]

As an aside, where has the unusually incorrect term of "Rhomaion" come from?

I've seen it used a lot. I assume it's derived from 'Basileia Rhōmaiōn' (Βασιλεία Ῥωμαίων; simply the Greek translation of 'Roman Empire') - which is what its people actually called it. Of course, they'd never call it 'Rhomaion'; they'd call it 'Rhomania' (or possibly 'Romania') instead. But you know that.

Basically, people call it this because they don't realize that saying 'Rhōmaiōn' instead of 'Basileia Rhōmaiōn' is pretty much like saying 'Of America' instead of 'United States of America' (whereas saying 'Rhomania' is like calling the USA 'America'; unofficial but widely used and universally understood).

 

[eliphas8]

As an aside, where has the unusually incorrect term of "Rhomaion" come from?

An Age Of Miracles seems like the most likely candidate.

 

[LSCatilina]

I think it's more of a snobism than anything.
More or less a way to say "Did you know that Byzantine Empire was the continuation of the Roman Empire, and that they called themselves Romans? Of course you didn't".
Romania, at least, does have the advantage to have been historically used and being a name in many languages (English, French, etc.) that if a bit desuete, is still fitting.

EDIT : And yes, I know Romania is used nowadays for Rumania. Ill-fitting use if you want my opinion, the former name being more accurate (like we said France and not Francia)

 

[Elfwine]

When even on this site (aka a place where one would reasonably expect above average knowledge of history) we still see people trying to argue that it wasn't that despite mountains of evidence to the contrary, I don't think its just snobbish.