WI: Iskandar Muda captured Malacca in 1629?

What if Iskandar Muda ('the young Alexander'), sultan of Aceh, had successfully emulated his namesake by crushing a once-mighty empire? That is, what if Aceh had successfully captured Portuguese Malacca in 1629?
 
He needs a lot of firepower to do that, but in general:

1. The sultanate would control a greater share (though not the totality) of inter-Asian trade. The takeover by the Portuguese splintered the trade routes that were partly built by Malacca, and Aceh would have a tough time putting it all back together, because...

2. Johor would become Aceh's greatest rival. The expulsion of the Portuguese would remove one of the big stumbling blocks to Johor's prosperity; the sultanate spent a lot in trying to take back Malacca. Johor could become a new hub for oceanic trade, especially if they control the choke-point of Singapura.

2. Aceh would become a target for the Portuguese, Dutch and British, who would see it as a new hegemon over the Straits. Expect intrigue and wars over the coming 17th and 18th centuries.
 
Johor would become Aceh's greatest rival.
This is incorrect. Johor was very weak at this point, having been shattered by seven Acehnese invasions. Iskandar Muda sacked its capital as recently as 1623. Johor actually supported the Portuguese in the Acehnese siege of Melaka because it correctly perceived Aceh as a far, far more powerful threat.

With victory at Melaka, there is almost no chance poor little Johor doesn't get terminated by Iskandar.
 
Ah shoot. Didn't re-check the date. :oops:

With that, I could see Aceh controlling the coast of the Malay Peninsula and/or extending it's influence with the the local states here. Considering its heavy influence with states like Kedah and Pahang OTL, there is even a chance the entire Peninsula - or at least the west coast - might either become tributary states or a part of Aceh proper for a long while.

But with that, the sultanate would also become a bigger target for foreign companies. If Iskandar Muda or his kin can't build on Aceh success by innovating its navy or conducting good diplomacy, then the future may be stormy. Then again, considering it managed to be independent and even receive British protection (for a while) before the late 1860's - early 1870's, I'd say they might be able to slip past the colonial era by playing off everyone.
 
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Aceh dominates the Straits... and becomes a definite target for the Dutch, British, or even the French (if you can make France not fail at Asia-ing). Without local powers to play off of each other however, it will be harder for the Dutch to take the Straits, although I don't think Aceh could keep said Straits for any lengthy (as in, like, a century) period of time.

Portugal loses even more ground in the spice trade and in the Asian sphere in general. They do still have Ceylon and Goa at this point, and I could see Portugal trying to refocus on India (and let's be real, probably failing given the Dutch power at that point).
 
although I don't think Aceh could keep said Straits for any lengthy (as in, like, a century) period of time.
As long as the Dutch don't screw with things, I actually think Aceh could control the Straits indefinitely. Once it has ousted the Portuguese and destroyed Johor, there's nobody left who can contest Aceh's claim to be the center of the Malay world and rightful heir of Malacca - that is, there's no ideology that Malays can use against Acehnese control. The Dutch are the only real problem for the 17th century (other Europeans are still rather weak) but Aceh isn't a direct threat to VOC interests.
 
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