WI: ISIS besieges Damascus

What if ISIS's initial operations in 2014 were such that instead of capturing much of northern Iraq, they concentrate their forces on a siege of Damascus, attempting to take the city and possibly overthrowing the Assad regime. This motivation is probably implausible, but assuming it happens, what would be the effects? How would the following parties respond?
- Assad regime
- Opposition/rebel groups in the rest of Syria
- Turkey
- Western Allies
- Russia
- Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinians
- Iran
- Saudi Arabia
- Israel
And did ISIS ever have a chance of capturing Damascus if they had tried?

Note: I'm not too clear yet on the rules for recent PODs, if this is too recent, please move to PolChat.
 
I doubt ISIS even at its peak would be able to fully encricle and besiege Damascus... let alone capture it. Additionally most of its equipment was acquired from fleeing Iraqi troops. So if you buttery away the invasion of northern iraq, you butterfly any chance of ISIS reaching Damascus.

If the rebels had greater success early in the war, you couldve had a situation similar to aleppo except ITTL isis over runs/assimilates the rebels and continues the seige they had in place previously. But this would be dependent on the rebels being far more successful(ie more units defecting and no iranian/hezbollah involvement + gulf aid) than they were IOTL and that may also butterfly away the formation of ISIS.

However assuming that ISIS does posses the capability ITTL to reach Damascus and place it under seige you probably would get the same reaction the west had toward the conflict since the begining... more rhettoric less physical involvement. I would imagine any atrocities isis commits would be equally matched by retreating government forces. Both sides ethnically cleansing neighbourhoods and slaughtering innocents during viscious urban warfare.... chemical warfare would be the norm.
 
They totally fail. They only got as far as they did in Iraq because the country was barely stable, had little military might, and was operating in almost universally Sunni areas. They completely failed the moment they hit the Shia majority areas of Iraq. If they go for Damascus, they not only never become as internationally recognised, hence massively stagnating their growth from glory-hunting Islamists the world-over, they get obliterated against a vastly superior conventional force with a population almost universally behind the Regime (even most Sunnis in Damascus would be Regime-supporters). They would be decimated with absolutely no return on investment considering that no one would support them. They probably won't even get to declare a Caliphate, or at least any that someone would care about.

If ASBs, and Damascus falls, there is a Western Intervention to end the Rwanda-tier genoicde that would be unfolding. Russia would high-tail out having lost their regional ally.
 
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