WI Irish Rebellion of 1641 was successful

I'm not a specialist of this period so i don't know how it would be pausible.
But i'm curious it seems to be a big event well prepared and i wonder if Irish rebellion could repulsed the English what will happen ? What will be the consequence ?
Could be stay independant a long time or not ?
 
I'm not a specialist of this period so i don't know how it would be pausible.
But i'm curious it seems to be a big event well prepared and i wonder if Irish rebellion could repulsed the English what will happen ? What will be the consequence ?
Could be stay independant a long time or not ?

IIRC, they invited the duke of Lorraine to fight for them. I don't remember if it was him or half of them that wanted to crown him king, but the other half said that the crown belonged to the Stuarts. And short of converting (and most of the Stuarts of that generation were pseudo-papists anyway), a Stuart might not be crowned king of Ireland, at least not without alienating the kingdoms over the Irish Sea.
 
At this point in time, it is rather like inviting the Mayor of San Francisco to come and be Governor of Rhode Island or Delaware. Why would he want to? Yes, technically it is a promotion but in terms of power and prestige? And the only possible reason for saying "yes" would be that things weren't going well for Lorraine. Which would not bode well for Ireland either. And the Holy Roman Emperor and King of France might not exactly welcome the Duke of Lorraine getting ideas above his station. And both sides in the English Civil War would be hostile to the notion. Might be the catalyst for a political compromise and subsequent invasion of Ireland. Or to an early Parliamentary victory as the Stuarts are discredited by losing Ireland. Offering the Crown to O'Neill might have fewer complications internationally. Or a younger son/brother of some European prince But eventually the English are going to end their civil war one way or another and turn their attention to Ireland. So unlikely to survive beyond 1650.
 
At this point in time, it is rather like inviting the Mayor of San Francisco to come and be Governor of Rhode Island or Delaware. Why would he want to? Yes, technically it is a promotion but in terms of power and prestige? And the only possible reason for saying "yes" would be that things weren't going well for Lorraine. Which would not bode well for Ireland either. And the Holy Roman Emperor and King of France might not exactly welcome the Duke of Lorraine getting ideas above his station. And both sides in the English Civil War would be hostile to the notion. Might be the catalyst for a political compromise and subsequent invasion of Ireland. Or to an early Parliamentary victory as the Stuarts are discredited by losing Ireland. Offering the Crown to O'Neill might have fewer complications internationally. Or a younger son/brother of some European prince But eventually the English are going to end their civil war one way or another and turn their attention to Ireland. So unlikely to survive beyond 1650.

Would an intervention of France be possible ? It seems they helped maybe if they seend troops ?
Could French-Irland repussed English invasion and forced them to acknoweldge independance of Irland ? And if yes could they stay independant a long time or England would just anenex them again later?
 
At the time France had fairly cordial relations with the Stuarts who had intermarried with their royal house (not an expert on the French history of that period so not sure if that Bourbons or Bourbon-Valois at that point). And I doubt if they would have thought a cousin on the throne of Ireland worth a resumption of English hostility (which would have been inevitable with whoever won the Civil War in those circumstances).

At this point in time around 90% of Irish trade is with Britain (the other 10% is butter out of Cork to France and Spain) so I can't see Irish independence as a long term viable proposition. It was the twentieth century before any state anywhere in Europe was rich enough to fund a Cuba situation and, even then, a lot of commentators consider that Castro was as much responsible for the collapse of the USSR as Reagan was.
 
If the rebellion is successful can Ireland then defend itself?
In any future wars with Great Britain an independent Ireland will be a temptation for Britain's enemies either as allies or as a 'backdoor' to the British Isles in either case 'inviting' a fresh British invasion.

There are also the Ulster Plantations and depending on how they are treated they could look to invite in their co-religionists from across the Irish Sea to aid them against the 'Papist Threat'.
 
At the time France had fairly cordial relations with the Stuarts who had intermarried with their royal house (not an expert on the French history of that period so not sure if that Bourbons or Bourbon-Valois at that point). And I doubt if they would have thought a cousin on the throne of Ireland worth a resumption of English hostility (which would have been inevitable with whoever won the Civil War in those circumstances).

At this point in time around 90% of Irish trade is with Britain (the other 10% is butter out of Cork to France and Spain) so I can't see Irish independence as a long term viable proposition. It was the twentieth century before any state anywhere in Europe was rich enough to fund a Cuba situation and, even then, a lot of commentators consider that Castro was as much responsible for the collapse of the USSR as Reagan was.

If the rebellion is successful can Ireland then defend itself?
In any future wars with Great Britain an independent Ireland will be a temptation for Britain's enemies either as allies or as a 'backdoor' to the British Isles in either case 'inviting' a fresh British invasion.

There are also the Ulster Plantations and depending on how they are treated they could look to invite in their co-religionists from across the Irish Sea to aid them against the 'Papist Threat'.

So if they manage to repel the English (even for a time) pproclaim Irland kingdom and put a Stuart in the throne, opening up the French and maybe Spanish market would be not enough for them they will suffer a lot and seen UK will still be interested by them combined with the presence of Protestants who might rebel or help British therefore it will be highly pausible that they will be annexed quickly.
But what would be the consequences of this revolt and proclamation of this kingdom ?
 
Well the only Stuart they have is the King they have already got- Charles I, and the Confederation of Kilkenny largely stayed loyal to him OTL so no big change.
Put the Duke of Lorraine (or son or brother of same) on the throne and they probably manage to inadvertently spark off a European war. Which may have butterflies for the English Civil War also.
Proclaim O'Neill King and there would be no massive change to OTL - he would have to flee to Europe to escape the Cromwellian conquest seven or eight years down the road. However, assuming he was a fairly decent King -and he was a capable military commander- there would be a strong Royalist streak in Irish nationalism -a "King over the water" even before the expulsion of James III and possibly a butterflying away of Republican nationalism in the late 1780s among the Catholic population after the extinction of the House of Stuart. Attempts to restore the House of O'Neill to the throne of Ireland. And, if the continental O'Neill line were to die out the O'Conor and O'Brien would have claims of their own.
 
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