HeavyWeaponsGuy
Banned
Okay before someone jumps on me for thinking that Iraq can completely overrun Iran I want to say I'm not proposing that. I just thought it would be cool to run some ideas of a scenario and such.
The way I see it... what cost Iraq its advantages was the fact that Hussein severely underestimated Iran's abilities and also put too much faith in his Arab nationalist doctrines to appeal to Iranian Arabs (like expecting the people of Khuzistan to rise up against Khomeini, which they didn't). Iraq also had terrible air defenses that Iran took full advantage of. Despite an American-imposed embargo, the Iranian air force played a role in the early stages of the war by helping slow the shock momentum of Iraqi forces long enough for Iran to mobilize its own troops.
I can see it ending in Iraq's favor in a few different ways.
1. Full-scale American intervention, it was only starting to get plausible in the closing years of the war, it was a strong enough threat that America would escalate beyond naval operations against Iran and put boots on the ground to end the war that Iran finally decided to make a serious commitment to peace (reversing their earlier policy of breaking ceasefires).
2. Iraq has better air defense systems. This would either require Iraq to switch away from the Soviet Union as a client or get better versions of their equipment, such a thing would probably happen years in advance of the real war, perhaps friendlier US relations than OTL in order to obtain American equipment or something similar. Following that vein, Iraq might have better equipment in general letting them keep the momentum early-on that was leading Western analysts to predict the war's end within weeks.
3. A more workable Project Babylon, or perhaps not if the Iraqi Army is able to set a supergun up outside Tehran and reap the morale benefits of well... turning it into a smoldering hole in the ground.
The way I see it... what cost Iraq its advantages was the fact that Hussein severely underestimated Iran's abilities and also put too much faith in his Arab nationalist doctrines to appeal to Iranian Arabs (like expecting the people of Khuzistan to rise up against Khomeini, which they didn't). Iraq also had terrible air defenses that Iran took full advantage of. Despite an American-imposed embargo, the Iranian air force played a role in the early stages of the war by helping slow the shock momentum of Iraqi forces long enough for Iran to mobilize its own troops.
I can see it ending in Iraq's favor in a few different ways.
1. Full-scale American intervention, it was only starting to get plausible in the closing years of the war, it was a strong enough threat that America would escalate beyond naval operations against Iran and put boots on the ground to end the war that Iran finally decided to make a serious commitment to peace (reversing their earlier policy of breaking ceasefires).
2. Iraq has better air defense systems. This would either require Iraq to switch away from the Soviet Union as a client or get better versions of their equipment, such a thing would probably happen years in advance of the real war, perhaps friendlier US relations than OTL in order to obtain American equipment or something similar. Following that vein, Iraq might have better equipment in general letting them keep the momentum early-on that was leading Western analysts to predict the war's end within weeks.
3. A more workable Project Babylon, or perhaps not if the Iraqi Army is able to set a supergun up outside Tehran and reap the morale benefits of well... turning it into a smoldering hole in the ground.