WI: Iraq partitioned

kernals12

Banned
Why didn't they in otl when Turkey and Major NATO members opposed Kurdish independence in 2017 and what strategic interest does the west in an independent Kurdistan and making Turkey an enemy. also Kurdistan being landlocked is going be destroyed by it's neighbors cutting off access.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum#Other_states
It depends on how aggressive Turkey gets, if it gets to the point of genocide, the rest of the world will intervene. An independent Kurdistan would make it harder for another Saddam Hussein to emerge, it would also create a stable nation-state, something that's rare in that part of the world. It's the reason why we broke up Austria-Hungary.
Are they going airlift all the necessary supplies over hundreds of mile hostile terrain and possibly trigger a regional war with Turkey ?
Greece is a member of NATO, and the rest of the world would certainly side with them if Turkey attacked.
 
It depends on how aggressive Turkey gets, if it gets to the point of genocide, the rest of the world will intervene.
Why on earth would Turkey commit Genocide on Iraqi Kurds given it hasn't on it's own population of Kurds.

Greece is a member of NATO, and the rest of the world would certainly side with them if Turkey attacked.
Turkey is also a NATO member. A Turkey attacking Greek forces flying over it's own territory or that of 3rd party nations isn't going to led to NATO siding with Greece as shown Cyprus Crisis which had Greek and Turkish forces shooting at each other.
 

kernals12

Banned
Why on earth would Turkey commit Genocide on Iraqi Kurds given it hasn't on it's own population of Kurds.


Turkey is also a NATO member. A Turkey attacking Greek forces flying over it's own territory or that of 3rd party nations isn't going to led to NATO siding with Greece as shown Cyprus Crisis which had Greek and Turkish forces shooting at each other.
Different times
 
Could turkey annex or be given the Kurdish territory in this partition? Or could it remain part of one of the two newly formed nations?
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Different times
You are quite clearly delusional or misinformed with your obsession over Kurdistan and your belief that the world will suddenly line up to support it. Anyone who flies over Turkish territory without Turkish permission is committing an act of war against Turkey. If Greece or Israel is stupid enough to do that (which they aren’t) then Turkey will be the one with the right to invoke Article 5.

I suggest you take note of the international reaction to Barzani’s 2017 independence referendum.
 
Last edited:
I don't think the Coalition would have gone through with splitting Iraq by Kurds,Sunni,and Shia after they realize Shia Iraq would be even more closer to Iran.
 
View attachment 469548
Iraq is dominated by 3 ethnoreligious groups: the Shiites, the Sunnis, and the Kurds. They all live in seperate parts of the country and as such, it has been suggested that the country be split among these lines. So what if the coalition forces had done so after the invasion?
See the response to Question 13.

I know the "enlightened" position has always been that Iraq is somehow fake. Every Iraqi I've spoken with seems to strongly disagree.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Turkey's fighter jets will be expensive doorstops once the West cuts off the supply of spare parts.
NATO was still VERY important in 1991. Very important in 2003.

More importantly the only way to make this happen is through MASSIVE ethnic cleansing. There are, as has been noted, large number of all three groups in very Iraqi major city, villages of each group, while generally clustered in the area indicated, exist all over the country. This plan would literally be a Crime Against Humanity.

Not going to happen.
 
Don't think this map work, but there might be a way to work out the division.

I know the "enlightened" position has always been that Iraq is somehow fake. Every Iraqi I've spoken with seems to strongly disagree.


It is, tho.

Its just a bunch of ethnic and religious groups that hate each other for millenia scattered together, with three major groups of people who hate each other.

The hard reality is that for a good part of its history, Iraq was just Western Iran. Went it was not Western Iran, it was someone's else land. And it will return to being Western Iran one day, because Iran is strong and Iraq is nothing. Or someone's else land. I can't see any endgame to Iraq that is not a messy civil war that goes genocidal, or foreign domination in some way.
 
Its just a bunch of ethnic and religious groups that hate each other for millenia scattered together, with three major groups of people who hate each other.
Expect before the 1991 uprising and 2003 war there was no major fighting between the Arab Sunni and Shia populations even in these case. you had Shias fighting on the side of Government along with Sunnis fighting for the rebels in former and Sunnis fighting for the government in the Latter. If that were the case,Iraq wouldn't have survived the Iran-Iraq war. Not to mention the large conversions from Sunni Islam to Shia Islam up until the Early 20th century .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shia_Islam_in_Iraq#Late_18th_to_mid-20th_century
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_uprisings_in_Iraq#Southern_uprisings

The hard reality is that for a good part of its history, Iraq was just Western Iran. Went it was not Western Iran, it was someone's else land.
Last native Iranian dynasty to rule over Iraq was the Buyids. While the last Iranian based dynasty to rule Iraq was the Safavids for only 16 years from 1622 to 1638.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buyid_dynasty
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safavid_dynasty
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Iraq#Ottoman_and_Mamluk_rule

And it will return to being Western Iran one day, because Iran is strong and Iraq is nothing
What is this Iranian nationalist non-sense

I can't see any endgame to Iraq that is not a messy civil war that goes genocidal, or foreign domination in some way.
Expect this was the case from 1958 to 2003
 
Last edited:
Could see Iraq partitioned earlier with a few PODs involving the Sazonov part of the original Sykes-Picot agreement managing to be realized allowing for a Russian mandate to be established in Western Armenia, Assyria and the Kurdish areas of OTL Iraq / Syria / Turkey (via a better performance by Russia in WW1 followed by a territorially screwed post-war Turkey).

Persia would probably attempt to invade the Shia part, while the British would either attempt to keep it independent or in the event of a successful British-backed Sheikh Khazal rebellion merge it with an independent Shia Arabistan (aka OTL Khuzestan Province). A more crazy idea would be to merge the Arabistan plus Shia part of Iraq with an ATL Kuwait that does not lose 2/3rds of its territory at Uqair.

Not sure whether the Sunni part would benefit from being attached to Syria, Jordan or less likely Saudi Arabia. Let alone whether Saddam manages to take power in ATL Jordan or fights with Assad over Syria in an inter-Baathist civil war.

Nor am sure who ultimately gets Baghdad in this scenario, whether it is fought over whoever rules over the Sunni and Shia parts or somehow becomes divided / internationalized.
 
Last edited:
Expect before the 1991 uprising and 2003 war there was no major fighting between the Arab Sunni and Shia populations even in these case. you had Shias fighting on the side of Government along with Sunnis fighting for the rebels in former and Sunnis fighting for the government in the Latter. If that were the case,Iraq wouldn't have survived the Iran-Iraq war. Not to mention the large conversions from Sunni Islam to Shia Islam up until the Early 20th century .

The Iraq insurgency post 2003 shows just how sectarian Iraq was. Cleansing on the basis of sunni versus shia occured.

See for example this article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/mar/04/usa.iraq

And the Shia Sunni divide was a major issue for Iraq during the war who attempted to appeal to racism and Arab identity to bolster morale. They also improved welfare in Shia areas while austerity in all areas outside the military was imposed.
 
Top