I agree on the military part of the analysis (very limited Saudi ability to stand up to the Iraqis on their own, possible collapse of the entire state apparatus) but I seriously doubt that the blackmail on oil would deter the Coalition. The international community would absolutely loath letting Saddam get away with taking over two sovereign countries more or less on a whim and taking control of such a large share of the world's oil reserves in the process. Iran would literally freak out, and so, ironically, would Israel (talk of strange bedfellows).If the Iraq Army had quickly proceeded into Saudi Arabia before the coalition was formed and reinforcements began arriving in Saudi Arabia, by contemporary accounts the sheer size and armored columns of the Iraqis probably would have swamped the much smaller Saudi forces. Saudi Arabia’s a big country but doesn’t have many cities, seaports, or military bases so the range of targets for an invader trying to cut off resupply and reinforcement is pretty small. Iraqi columns the size of the entire Saudi ground forces could have been sent simultaneously to a handful of key targets. As a highly centralized government, taking the capital city of Riyadh alone and the key bases if done fast enough might have broke the country’s command and control decisively (just as Kuwait’s Royal Family fled the country quickly.) Seizing the holy cities might not matter much to the other Muslim countries since the Iraqi Army was both Sunni and Shia so very unlikely to desecrate or damage places they held holy as well. Changes of power or control in Central Asia happen endlessly and neighboring states reacting by invading is very unpredictable and not that common.
If Iraq had seized both Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, it’s share of the world’s oil supply in 1990 (and oil at the lowest cost of production anywhere in the world, an estimated $6/barrel back then) would have allowed much greater threat of “we’ll blow up our oilfields and pipelines” if you attack us, as Iraq did in fact do during the coalition’s invasion of Iraq. That would have knocked around 30–40% of the world’s oil supply out of supply for easily a year, driving oil prices into that $80–150/barrel range with great impacts so many countries would have applied frantic pressure to stop the emerging coalition to attack there. Under President Clinton or Obama rather than G.H.W. Bush, the U.S. would have been far less likely to put together an effective and timely coalition, instead dithering and trying to do it all with diplomacy until it was fait accompli.
I agree on the military part of the analysis (very limited Saudi ability to stand up to the Iraqis on their own, possible collapse of the entire state apparatus) but I seriously doubt that the blackmail on oil would deter the Coalition. The international community would absolutely loath letting Saddam get away with taking over two sovereign countries more or less on a whim and taking control of such a large share of the world's oil reserves in the process. Iran would literally freak out, and so, ironically, would Israel (talk of strange bedfellows).
What if Iraq invades Saudi Arabia before coalition forces are able to arrive and prevent their arrival? They hold onto most of the country.
In all honesty I'm not to sure that the US wouldn't break out the tactical nukes(after telling the Soviets we would be doing so) in order to stop Saddam gaining control of that much of the worlds oil supply...which considering how two carrier battlegroups were on station within a few days is entirely viable to pull off
Ah but the threat thereof would probably result in the Iraqis not pushing further southJust, no, There is no way the USA is going nuclear without large scale Iraqi use of chemical or biological weapons. it would be a horrifying precedent that would wreck the Coalition and generate massive hostility in the Arabic world, just imagine if fallout from the bombs reached Mecca and Medina, desecrating the holiest sites in Islam. Now I'm sure the US military would promise no such thing would happen but their track record in terms of unintended consequences does not inspire confidence.
Ah but the threat thereof would probably result in the Iraqis not pushing further south
“The raising of that flag on Suribachi means a Marine Corps for the next 500 years.”As Obsessednuker notes, the light formations would come out looking like heroes and absolutely make as much hay of it as they could, particularly the USMC. Justifies their existence and their budgets for the next fifty years.