WI: Iranian Revolution Not Dominated By Islamists?

[Blackfox5]

With no Khomeini, the Iranian Revolution likely settles into a democratic republic with some concessions made to the conservative Islamists. It is not an insignificant chance that the Islamists are able to take power via elections. However, without Khomeini they lack a leader able to ruthlessly and cunningly advance their power, and as time goes by the emotion of the revolution will subside. Most likely the National Front is able to rule in some sort of coalition government. Another possibility is that tension between the traditional Muslims or conservative Islamists and the Western oriented elite and middle class leads to ongoing civil strife, perhaps even war.

I figure 50% Westernized democratic rule, 30% Islamic takeover, and 20% civil strife in terms of the scenario.

There will be no role for the Shah's family. There might eventually be a constitutional monarchist party that wants to bring back his son to reign, but not rule, but they are likely to have only minority support. It will be sometime before even this stance could be tolerated.

 

[Simon]

Why not just have Saddam execute him?

Well it would mark a very large change of position for the Iraqis going from rescinding his invitation to killing him and I was trying to keep the changes as small a possible; there's also that if he dies then the leadership devolves to whoever is next in line, conversely if he's still alive but semi-isolated in Najaf then it makes things for the conservative Islamists much more difficult.

 

[Cregan]

Well it would mark a very large change of position for the Iraqis going from rescinding his invitation to killing him and I was trying to keep the changes as small a possible; there's also that if he dies then the leadership devolves to whoever is next in line, conversely if he's still alive but semi-isolated in Najaf then it makes things for the conservative Islamists much more difficult.

Maybe the Ba'athists decide to seek better relations with the Shah early on, and execute Khomeini to sweeten the deal?

I'm not sure any other Ayatollah had his combination of authority as well as political involvement.

 

[Cook]

Why not just have Saddam execute him?

Because Khamenei was a nuisance to the Shah; anything that was a thorn in the side of the Shah was welcomed by Saddam. And vice-versa; the Shah supported Iraqi Kurdish resistance to Saddam while ruthlessly crushing any Kurdish independence at home.