WI: Iranian Revolution delayed

The Iranian Revolution began in 1977 after the Shah relaxed censorship against radical writings. By early 1979 the Shah left the country and died in the middle of 1980 from lymphatic cancer.

What if the Shah was able to keep a lid on things through a variety of measures, for example stricter censorship, and delayed the outbreak of revolution? It was probably inevitable once he dies and power is passed to his young son.

Given the same time scale, Khomeini's supporters would be in power by early 1982. The biggest impact this would have is the re-election of Jimmy Carter, and given Reagan's age, would probably be the end of his Presidential hopes.

Iran will be militarily stronger. They had ordered F-14s, F-16s, and Challenger I tanks. Only a portion of the F-14s were delivered when the revolution took place in OTL.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Given the same time scale, Khomeini's supporters would be in power by early 1982. The biggest impact this would have is the re-election of Jimmy Carter, and given Reagan's age, would probably be the end of his Presidential hopes.

Iran will be militarily stronger. They had ordered F-14s, F-16s, and Challenger I tanks. Only a portion of the F-14s were delivered when the revolution took place in OTL.

First off, I don't think Khomeini, when he finally got into power, would've been treated any softer by the US. The Carter Administration was much more hawkish than many of it's fans and detractors try to make it out as.

The Iran-Iraq War, if it had happened, would've been a lot more evenly matched. Which is saying something, because the Iranians managed to do a lot of damage with 79 F-14As (with barely any munitions until the Reagan Administration unlocked the stores in the mid-80s) and some older F-4s and F-5s.
The Chieftains they were ordering were also upgraded, with new diesel engines that were actually more reliable when it came down to it than what the British Army of the Rhine was using at the time.
The Jordanians ended up getting them and said they were very happy with them. The L7 gun was always a beast.

I don't know how many F-16s would've been shipped to them by then, I'm sure it wouldn't have been a carbon copy of what happened to them with the Tomcats. If they had more than 2 dozen of them, I'd be surprised.

But the amount of munitions is the important thing. They'd have a fair amount of Phoenix long range missiles, AMRAAMs, and Sidewinders. We're talking enough to probably put the Iraqi air force out of action, and actually gain air superiority over a certain nuclear facility at Al Tuwaitha to actually finish it off, not just put a hole in one of the towers like they did in OTL.

I think you'd see an overall increase in the airpower usage that the Iranians had at the beginning of the war: F-4s as bombers and strike aircraft, F-14s (and now F-16s) as air-superiority aircraft, F-5s for CAP and patrol. They would be able to use the F-14s much more aggressively though, against the Iraqi Mirage F-1s, MiG-21s, and MiG-23s.
 
Fellas, the Iran-Iraq War could well have just been butterflied away in this scenario- remember, the main reason why Saddam had a go at invading Iran in 1980 was cos of the chaos caused by the Revolution, which had left the Iranian army officer corps in total disarray- therefore, Saddam thought that Iran would be a walkover- which wasn't the case at all of course-leading to the 8-yr stalemate. With the strong armed forces of Imperial Iran still around, Iraq would defntly think twice...
 
...
The Chieftains they were ordering were also upgraded, with new diesel engines that were actually more reliable when it came down to it than what the British Army of the Rhine was using at the time.
The Jordanians ended up getting them and said they were very happy with them. The L7 gun was always a beast.
...
Iran ordered 1225 Shir 2 tanks which were taken over by the British army as the Challenger 1 tank. Also US was to deliver 4 Kidd class destroyers which were instead sent to Taiwan.

Fellas, the Iran-Iraq War could well have just been butterflied away in this scenario- remember, the main reason why Saddam had a go at invading Iran in 1980 was cos of the chaos caused by the Revolution, which had left the Iranian army officer corps in total disarray- therefore, Saddam thought that Iran would be a walkover- which wasn't the case at all of course-leading to the 8-yr stalemate. With the strong armed forces of Imperial Iran still around, Iraq would defntly think twice...
Iran would be stronger in equipment, but the flight of the officer corp would still happen. Besides, Khomeini had designs on Iraq himself...
 
It should be remembered that the Iranian Revolution was not just an upsurge in fanatical Islamism, but was equally supported by liberals and socialists within Iran who hated the authoritarianism of the Shah - they didn't know their revolution was going to be hijacked by Khomenei and turn into a nightmare.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
More than likely a different set of circumstances would be needed to a Iran Iraq war later on, in 1982
One of the interesting things if the War had not happened was that fact it was a driving force behind the allot of the new Iranian Regimes Law and Policy changes and force behind having the revolutionary Guard kept at high levels and strong. Would be interesting if more liberal forces would have come into play earlier with now Persian Gulf war.
An Iran not dilapidated by 8 years of conflict able to sort out it’s internal Infrastructure issues, Would have seen some interesting developments.
Also the Shah has put in place allot of work into Military systems manufacture and fabrication as seen by the Manufacture of Helicopters in the years leading up to the revolution

As a Major User of F5E as a stable of it’s light fighter units would have been interesting is Iran would have been in a position to look at the F5G/F20 putting in orders that get Cancelled as this later revolution started

There was also discussions for Hawk Trainers being sold to Iran, not sure how Far that had gotten

As far as Tank Development goes not sure how many of the over 1200 Shir Tanks ordered get delivered But certainly a boost to British Tank Industry


Khalid (also designated 4030P2J - P = Phase & J = Jordan)/Shir(Lion) 1
Jordanian / Iranian variant with running gear of the Challenger 1. Basically this was a transition vehicle from the Chieftain to the Shir2 which had been intended for Iran but was subsequently cancelled. The Shir2 tanks became Challenger1 tanks after reworking at ROF Leeds. The vehicle chassis comprised the front half of a Chieftain Hull, Chieftain running gear and the rear of a 4030/2 Chassis (Sloping Hull). This allowed the fitment in the engine bay of a Rolls CV8 engine.
Shir 2
Iranian variant. Visible external differences from the Chieftain Mk5 included a sloping rear hull, Removal of the Searchlight from the left turret area and storage baskets refitted, water channel removed from around drivers hatch on the glacis plate, modified light clusters also on the glacis plate, Larger sight housing on commanders cupola.

As far as other Developments go as far as military equipment do not forget the Kidd Class AA Destroyers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidd_class_destroyer

On Paper all power weapons Systems but maintaining them would have been a bitch
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Was slow in my reply and Grey Wolf slipt on in before me,, Hmmm
Now Khomenei having a Stroke in this later revolution and not enough to kill but to disable him enough not to play as active a part and the liberals and socialists Elemets getting a foot hold, Like the idea of that for sure
Would a more liberal Govement be able to hold onto some of the Officer core and Other lost Educated classes
 
This has huge butterflies for US

1) The 1980 election at least looks closer

2) If a more stabel outcome is achieved in Iran Saddam does not invade Iran. If Saddam does not invade Iran he is not as short of money so he does not invade Kuwait.

American conservatives would likely see Saddam as 'our son of a bitch' (or at least an SOB not linked to ultra Islam.)
 
Top