WI: Iran-Taliban War in 1998?

[GlobalHumanism]

If you didn't know, Iran and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan almost got into a full-fledged war in 1998 over the Taliban's seizure of the Iranian consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif and the execution of its entire staff.

Iran eventually massed troops along the Afghani border and threatened invasion with the UN stepping in to calm things down.

But what if the UN negotiations break down and Iran decides, feeling strangled by sectarian aggression along all of its borders decides to invade to remove the Taliban from power?

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Would the Taliban, with a weaker army, but with the financial backing of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Al Qaeda, eventually have troops in Tehran?

Would Iran, with better military capabilities be able to sweep through and topple the Emirate?

Could you see Pakistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, etc intervening?

Based on your thoughts, what do you think the overall butterflies would be for the region and the world?

 

[Osakadave]

This may be of interest...
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/who-is-bad-guy-here.3959/

 

[Coiler]

-Outside intervention by anyone else except maybe Pakistan is highly dubious.
-Iran greatly exceeds the Taliban regime in military strength but has major logistical difficulties and a reluctance to invoke a domestic backlash with high casualties a decade after the Iran-Iraq War.

A conventional invasion can succeed, but then it means that Iran is caught in the Afghan pit.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

-Outside intervention by anyone else except maybe Pakistan is highly dubious.
-Iran greatly exceeds the Taliban regime in military strength but has major logistical difficulties and a reluctance to invoke a domestic backlash with high casualties a decade after the Iran-Iraq War.

A conventional invasion can succeed, but then it means that Iran is caught in the Afghan pit.

Which in turn might lead to a tactical Afghan victory, especially if the Pakistanis get involved.

All Kabul has to do is sit back in guerilla mode and bleed the invading forces until either their combat moral and/or economy collapses. Then counter strIke back across the border

 

[Coiler]

Which in turn might lead to a tactical Afghan victory, especially if the Pakistanis get involved.

If Pakistan gets involved, Kargil is almost certainly butterflied.

All Kabul has to do is sit back in guerilla mode and bleed the invading forces until either their combat moral and/or economy collapses. Then counter strIke back across the border

By this point, they're a conventional state (kind of) and a lot of pressure on the NI is going to be taken off, regardless of whether the Iranians make it to Kandahar or not. Yes, in the long-term they can do that (if unintentionally), but in the short-term, it's stand or collapse.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

If Pakistan gets involved, Kargil is almost certainly butterflied.

which probably is better for Pakistan in the long run

By this point, they're a conventional state (kind of) and a lot of pressure on the NI is going to be taken off, regardless of whether the Iranians make it to Kandahar or not. Yes, in the long-term they can do that (if unintentionally), but in the short-term, it's stand or collapse.

Wikipedia says the following on the military assests of the Taliban army around this time:

The Taliban Army possessed over 400 T-54/55 and T-62 tanks and more than 200 Armoured personnel carriers.[1]

The Afghan Air Force under the Taliban maintained five supersonic MIG-21MFs and 10 Sukhoi-22 fighter-bombers.[2] They also held six Mil Mi-8 helicopters, five Mi-35s, fiveL-39Cs, six An-12s, 25 An-26s, a dozen An-24/32s, an IL-18, and a Yakovlev.[3]

Their civil air service contained two Boeing 727A/Bs, a Tu-154, five An-24s, and a DHC-6.[3]

Now yes while Iran would have the material advantage, the Taliban has the advantage of terrain, and experience given their leadership was fresh off a string of victories against the Northern Alliance. This coupled with "blank check" financial assistance they would receive from Iran's sectarian enemies in the region, would probably equal additional armaments bought on the black market.

So even in the case Omar decides to stand and fight an initial invasion straight up (dubious), they stand a good chance of causing stalemate in the intial phases, possibly repeling the Iranians before they can even sniff at Kandahar.

 

[nbcman]

As this is the year after the Khobar Towers bombing, I could see the US possibly backing the Taliban covertly to stalemate the Iranians as there were indications that the Khobar Tower attack was backed by Iran. But if the US learns about Al-Qaeda involvement in Afganistan, the US aid will stop due to Khobar Towers and the Embassy bombings in East Africa.

 

[Coiler]

Wikipedia says the following on the military assests of the Taliban army around this time:

Ben Lambeth's "Air Power Against Terror: America's Conduct of Operation Enduring Freedom" says that only around a hundred of its tanks were actually serviceable.

Its equipment inventory was a hodge-podge of around 100 obsolete T-55 and T-62 tanks and other vehicles inherited from the failed Soviet occupation.

(Of course, Iran's tank strength isn't anywhere near its on-paper size either)

Now yes while Iran would have the material advantage, the Taliban has the advantage of terrain, and experience given their leadership was fresh off a string of victories against the Northern Alliance. This coupled with "blank check" financial assistance they would receive from Iran's sectarian enemies in the region, would probably equal additional armaments bought on the black market.

I doubt they'd have time to "digest" their weapons in-depth.

 

[Wallet]

Iran won't be so gentle like how the US was. The initial invasion won't be as smooth as the US just because the Iranian army isn't as big, but they won't play nice.

This is an interesting POD. Bin Laden will now focus his energy on the aposty Shias.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

Iran won't be so gentle like how the US was. The initial invasion won't be as smooth as the US just because the Iranian army isn't as big, but they won't play nice.

This is an interesting POD. Bin Laden will now focus his energy on the aposty Shias.

I think I might do a TL on this.

 

[The Byronic Hero]

With Pakistan's involvement, could Iran learn to play nice with India? Regional destabilization? Maybe India shares their nuclear secrets.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

With Pakistan's involvement, could Iran learn to play nice with India? Regional destabilization? Maybe India shares their nuclear secrets.

did some resaerch on this and it seems India's warming relationship with the Iranian Republic would almost certainly lead to an earlier military assistance Pact between the countries.

Following the 1979 revolution, relations between Iran and India strengthened momentarily. However, Iran's continued support forPakistan and India's close relations with Iraqduring the Iran–Iraq War impeded further development of Indo–Iranian ties.[2] In the 1990s, India and Iran supported the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan against the Taliban regime. They continue to collaborate in supporting the broad-based anti-Taliban government led by Ashraf Ghani and backed by the United States. The two countries signed a defence cooperaton pact in 2002

So as it stands, an Iranian invasion may even ignite a Pakistan-India conflict, though a small one. (but big enough to sufficiently preoccupy Pakistan enough to not offer any realistic assistance to their Taliban allies)

So then we really only have Iran v Afghanistan fight.

 

[Archibald]

I think I might do a TL on this.

Now this might be a dystopia I'd like to read. I usually dislike dystopias, but I also dislike fanatics, and both Iran and Taliban are/were religion nuts. Not much affection for Pakistan either, at least the fanatical faction of that country.

So I voted for a stalemate.

All three powers are as fanatical as (The Red) 1940 Japanese soldiers. So the fight won't be pretty, for sure. It would be a war of fanatics - with blood, guts and heads and limbs flying all around. Pasdarans versus Talibans would be utter madness - for the record, during the war with Iraq pasdaran brigades ran unarmed peoples into minefields, people that blew themselves to clear the path for Iran "regular" army. Of course the Talibans are not much saner.

The best outcome is that such war last a very long time so that both fanatic factions bleed each other to death. On paper the Taliban are inferior, but with some help from Pakistan they might resist enough to lock that war into a very bloody stalemate, WWI or GW1 style. Bon débarras - good ridance !

Western leaders should sat on their hands and give weapons to both sides, just like they did in Iran-Iraq war where two major regional powers bled themselves dry for eight years. If that war keep Osama away from the Western world, the better ! Indeed if that war starts in 1998 and last ten years, every terrorist attack from this era may never happen. 9/11 of course, but also the horrific Spanish and British bombing carnages that killed 191 and 56 people eighteen months apart.

With a last touch of luck, ISIS might also been butterflied away. Depends from an eventual U.S invasion of Iraq in 2003. No idea if Arab springs happens ITTL.

 

[hasdrubal barca]

I think I might do a TL on this.

I'd love to read that.

 

[yulzari]

With India, with Russian links moving closer to Iran and Pakistan already close to China there is the chance of a surrogate Sino-Russian war.

 

[Marko]

Iranians aren't fanatics. The vocal relgious leadership is partially, but the general population as well as the military are rather down to earth.

 

[Archibald]

That's true, the Iranian youth hates the mullahs - see the June 2009 protests.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ban-–-iran-war-timeline.391423/#post-12587553

Hey guys I started a TL on this. check it out and discuss it with me on the thread

 

[wtw]

I think there is an honest chance that if/when Pakistan and the assorted Islamist elements that would join in would back the Taliban you would see India, Iran, Russia and at this time Turkey for its own pan-Turkish reasons move in to assist in some way. I think between the Khobar towers and the East African bombings the US and the west would stay out. Now the Russians and Turks would probably send advisors and special forces in addition to arms and trainers for them. The question is what does China do? Does China help Pakistan, they are allies.

 

[Dan1988]

Iran would probably win, in which case it would be to Afghanistan what Vietnam was to Cambodia after Pol Pot got deposed. If Teheran could link up with the Northern Alliance, it would be even better.