WI: Iran-Taliban war in 1998

After the murder of iranian diplomats in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazari_Sharifhttp://, Iran and the Taliban almost went to war. The UN Security Council moderated an aggreement, but what would have happened if they failed. The Iranians had given aid to the Northern Alliance, but would this continue? Would they install Massoud as a puppet ruler, or would he not submit? Would they leave the NA alone, or would they grab the entire country? How would this affect the war on terror? My apologies if this has already been discussed, but the Search Function has nothing on it.
 

Hyperion

Banned
After the murder of iranian diplomats in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mazari_Sharifhttp://, Iran and the Taliban almost went to war. The UN Security Council moderated an aggreement, but what would have happened if they failed. The Iranians had given aid to the Northern Alliance, but would this continue? Would they install Massoud as a puppet ruler, or would he not submit? Would they leave the NA alone, or would they grab the entire country? How would this affect the war on terror? My apologies if this has already been discussed, but the Search Function has nothing on it.

The Iranians would probably destroy the Taliban in open warfare. That and I doubt they would really care as much about good PR to get the job done.
 

Solroc

Banned
Would that be a good thing though? Would the Iranian-backed NA be beneficial or would it just replace a repressive regime with another, possibly worse, repressive regime?
 
Far from expert 2 cents

Iran's issues with the Taliban were a MAJOR missed opportunity for the US to bag Al-Qaeda with the Iranians doing the heavy lifting. Unfortunately, given the extensive Saudi-financed ISI mucking about, it would be unlikely for the Iranian-banked NA to prevail as they did with US support in 2002.
Badass punitive expedition that topples the Taliban as ruling government or weakens them to rump state needing extensive Pakistani support is likely though. The NA ruling the area effectively is a whole different matter.
I figure Afghanistan'd end up with a buffer zone 40% under Iranian control, a buffer zone of 40% under NA control, 20% under quasi-Pakistani control, Kabul being a free city, lots of UN sanctions on all involved with a massive refugee crisis and maybe some blue helmets policing the buffer zone a la Cyprus.
Chances of it being a "failed state" like Somalia, 95%, solving one problem but causing a ton of problems later on for various neighbors. IDK what tensions exist between Iran and Pakistan lately-- but spanking ISI clients
would bring a nasty cold war forcing both Iran and Pakistan to spend a lot of time and money snarling and tussling with each other with OOTW. (Ops Other Than War for Austin Bay fans). Iran and India cooperate a lot anyway, but they'd likely be in a much tighter military and economic alliance if this op goes down.
If the Iranians and US could come to some kind of cooperative agreement, this could work wonders for their ongoing relationship, but too many in the US didn't want to cut their ISI "allies" loose, had grudges from 1979, etc,
and Iran had severe trust issues the US'd hold up their end.
Anyhow, just thought I'd toss in my bits.
 
Huh, interesting.

Now, if Iran fought a war with Afghanistan, it's interesting to think what would happen. Would there be a long, dragged out war due to the Taliban soldiers hiding in the mountains? Even more importantly, would a long, dragged out war lead to a collapse of the Iranian government much like it led to the collapse of the USSR?
 
Since it almost happened anyway in 2009...

would this have pushed them over the brink? What would the effects be on neighboring countries? An earlier arab spring, perhaps?
 
Iran's issues with the Taliban were a MAJOR missed opportunity for the US to bag Al-Qaeda with the Iranians doing the heavy lifting. Unfortunately, given the extensive Saudi-financed ISI mucking about, it would be unlikely for the Iranian-banked NA to prevail as they did with US support in 2002.
Badass punitive expedition that topples the Taliban as ruling government or weakens them to rump state needing extensive Pakistani support is likely though. The NA ruling the area effectively is a whole different matter.
I figure Afghanistan'd end up with a buffer zone 40% under Iranian control, a buffer zone of 40% under NA control, 20% under quasi-Pakistani control, Kabul being a free city, lots of UN sanctions on all involved with a massive refugee crisis and maybe some blue helmets policing the buffer zone a la Cyprus.
Chances of it being a "failed state" like Somalia, 95%, solving one problem but causing a ton of problems later on for various neighbors. IDK what tensions exist between Iran and Pakistan lately-- but spanking ISI clients
would bring a nasty cold war forcing both Iran and Pakistan to spend a lot of time and money snarling and tussling with each other with OOTW. (Ops Other Than War for Austin Bay fans). Iran and India cooperate a lot anyway, but they'd likely be in a much tighter military and economic alliance if this op goes down.
If the Iranians and US could come to some kind of cooperative agreement, this could work wonders for their ongoing relationship, but too many in the US didn't want to cut their ISI "allies" loose, had grudges from 1979, etc,
and Iran had severe trust issues the US'd hold up their end.
Anyhow, just thought I'd toss in my bits.

Uh... the US isn't missing any opportunities hopping into bed with a nation that actively despises them. Iran would invade (rather brutally I might add), knock out the Taliban, and then prop up an Iranian client state in some way, either with the existing Northern Alliance or with a whole new government, either way, it creates a pro-Iran regime that works on destabilizing Pakistan, it's going to be fine for US-Pakistan relations to work together against Iran and their client state in Afghanistan, but Iran's probably going to take advantage of Afghanistan's unrest by letting other more Shiite-friendly terrorists do their thing in the country.
 
would this have pushed them over the brink? What would the effects be on neighboring countries? An earlier arab spring, perhaps?

Arab Spring wasn't caused by anyone's military adventurism, it was seriously a random spark that unleashed latent unrest against repressive regimes that was itself caused by a large bulge of unemployed young men who hadn't been as successfully indoctrinated into accepted the status quo as their parents had.

And in response to someone else, no Afghanistan wouldn't have brought down Iran. The Soviet Union by the time of Afghanistan was hemorrhaging very severely, Iran is not at the level of economic weakness approaching collapse that the Soviet Union was in at the time of Afghanistan.
 

Solroc

Banned
I think someone came up with a TL about this topic a few years ago.

Do you remember what's its called?

After doing a bit more research on the subject, I can honestly say that having Iran overthrow the Taliban in a Iran-Taliban War would make things just as bad, if not worse. A pro-Shia, pro-Iran might not harbor OBL, but it would still be a training ground for many terrorist groups. We'd probably have a terrorist attack that would probably mirror the psychological effect that 9/11 inflicted.

otoh, it could give us cause to liberate BOTH Afghanistan and Iran...
 
Do you remember what's its called?

After doing a bit more research on the subject, I can honestly say that having Iran overthrow the Taliban in a Iran-Taliban War would make things just as bad, if not worse. A pro-Shia, pro-Iran might not harbor OBL, but it would still be a training ground for many terrorist groups. We'd probably have a terrorist attack that would probably mirror the psychological effect that 9/11 inflicted.

otoh, it could give us cause to liberate BOTH Afghanistan and Iran...

Could be

'Who is the bad guy here'


https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=3959&pp=20
 
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