President George W. Bush's 2002 State of the Union Address is most well known for it's description of the "Axis of Evil" of Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.
While it is true that there were no normalized relations between the United States and Iran, as had been the case since the 1979 revolution, that nation was nowhere near as overtly hostile to the United States and its interests as the other two. In fact, then-President Mohammed Khatami, who had already been twice elected as a reformist candidate, was the author of "Dialogue Among Civilizations" and a relatively strong advocate of normalizing relations among the west. Additionally, at the time, the Iranian Majlis (Parliament) was comprised of a majority of members considered "reformists" by political analysts. The Persian people also, by and large, view Americans favorably, a by-product of a relatively benign foreign policy relationship under the Clinton administration and the fact that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by fundamentalist Sunni Muslims, who also tended to view Iran's Shi'a majority as equally heretical.
While President Khatami's reforms were stymied by conservative elements in Iran's government, he was still able to ride the wave of popular support and earn some small victories. Unfortunately, the hardliners were able to capitalize on the "Axis of Evil" speech and gain political support among the people. In the wake of the speech, Khatami denounced the United States - rumors were that the clerical establishment and IRGC would depose him and dissolve Parliament if he did not - and relations shifted from benign to hostile nearly overnight. With this shift of political landscape, hardliners were able to more overtly and blatantly exercise their power, resulting in blanket vetos of Khatami's reform legislation and disqualification of many sitting MPs from reelection. The result was a shift to a conservative majority in the Majlis elections of 2004, and the election of the conservative Mahmood Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential elections.
So the question is this: What if David Frum (Bush's speech writer) left out Iran as part of the Axis, substituting it with Libya or Syria instead?
While it is true that there were no normalized relations between the United States and Iran, as had been the case since the 1979 revolution, that nation was nowhere near as overtly hostile to the United States and its interests as the other two. In fact, then-President Mohammed Khatami, who had already been twice elected as a reformist candidate, was the author of "Dialogue Among Civilizations" and a relatively strong advocate of normalizing relations among the west. Additionally, at the time, the Iranian Majlis (Parliament) was comprised of a majority of members considered "reformists" by political analysts. The Persian people also, by and large, view Americans favorably, a by-product of a relatively benign foreign policy relationship under the Clinton administration and the fact that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by fundamentalist Sunni Muslims, who also tended to view Iran's Shi'a majority as equally heretical.
While President Khatami's reforms were stymied by conservative elements in Iran's government, he was still able to ride the wave of popular support and earn some small victories. Unfortunately, the hardliners were able to capitalize on the "Axis of Evil" speech and gain political support among the people. In the wake of the speech, Khatami denounced the United States - rumors were that the clerical establishment and IRGC would depose him and dissolve Parliament if he did not - and relations shifted from benign to hostile nearly overnight. With this shift of political landscape, hardliners were able to more overtly and blatantly exercise their power, resulting in blanket vetos of Khatami's reform legislation and disqualification of many sitting MPs from reelection. The result was a shift to a conservative majority in the Majlis elections of 2004, and the election of the conservative Mahmood Ahmadinejad in the 2005 presidential elections.
So the question is this: What if David Frum (Bush's speech writer) left out Iran as part of the Axis, substituting it with Libya or Syria instead?