ThePest179
Banned
I heard about an incident in the Taliban's Afghanistan where 10 Iranian diplomats were killed and Iran almost went to war with the Taliban. What would've happened had Iran been more impulsive and attacked?
WI: Iran invades Afghanistan in 1998?
- Thread starter ThePest179
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Two totalitarian Islamic 'Republics' (to abuse the term Republic) going at each other's throats? Oh this would be potentially even messier than the Iran-Pakistan nuclear exchange in World War Z.
The butterflies from this would be global, and that's just day one!
Taliban Afghanistan was an Islamic Emirate.
The Talibans would be swept aside in weeks, and the Northern Alliance would take over, ruling in joint with the Iranian occupiers.
Pakistan start to fund a guerrilla war against Iran.
ThePest179
Banned
So basically a repeat of the two OTL wars? How long would Iran remain in Afghanistan before its patience ran out?
I'm thinking about international repercussions of the Iran-Afghan War and it's messy from day one.
On one hand, the Afghan's did kill a bunch of diplomats, on the other hand the situation could have been handled through negotiation, and Iran being Iran, a lot of countries would (clandestinely) support Afghanistan simply to do the Iranians a bad turn.
I'm picturing the United States sending 'advisors' to the Afghans along with a ton of cash and guns to fight Iran.
Not sure if Yeltsin would have the urge to wage a proxy war against the United States by supporting Iran, but there'd be factions within Russia that totally would.
China might send some supplies to Iran to gain influence (and maybe some oil), or it might split the difference and supply both sides.
al-Qaeda will decide that Shia Iran is it's worst enemy after all, pouring it's resources into a 'New Jihad', and I'm telling you that the CIA and Osama bin Ladin will become besties again, even if the US government publicly disavows any support for al-Qaeda (wink).
The Iran-Afghan War would have Iran putting more effort into it's nuclear program, and the rest of the world putting even more effort into stopping their nuclear program. Israel might 'act without American knowledge' (wink) and bomb Iran, Iraq of course denying that it had allowed the Israelis into their airspace (wink).
That is if Saddam wasn't given a free hand (and a bunch of cash and weapons) to re-invade Iran again.
Yeah... This thing could have turned the Middle East into just a big a mess as it's turned into due to the OTL Iraq War.
On one hand, the Afghan's did kill a bunch of diplomats, on the other hand the situation could have been handled through negotiation, and Iran being Iran, a lot of countries would (clandestinely) support Afghanistan simply to do the Iranians a bad turn.
I'm picturing the United States sending 'advisors' to the Afghans along with a ton of cash and guns to fight Iran.
Not sure if Yeltsin would have the urge to wage a proxy war against the United States by supporting Iran, but there'd be factions within Russia that totally would.
China might send some supplies to Iran to gain influence (and maybe some oil), or it might split the difference and supply both sides.
al-Qaeda will decide that Shia Iran is it's worst enemy after all, pouring it's resources into a 'New Jihad', and I'm telling you that the CIA and Osama bin Ladin will become besties again, even if the US government publicly disavows any support for al-Qaeda (wink).
The Iran-Afghan War would have Iran putting more effort into it's nuclear program, and the rest of the world putting even more effort into stopping their nuclear program. Israel might 'act without American knowledge' (wink) and bomb Iran, Iraq of course denying that it had allowed the Israelis into their airspace (wink).
That is if Saddam wasn't given a free hand (and a bunch of cash and weapons) to re-invade Iran again.
Yeah... This thing could have turned the Middle East into just a big a mess as it's turned into due to the OTL Iraq War.
ThePest179
Banned
Alright, I think Saddam wouldn't let in any Israelis considering his habit of trying to hit them with SCUDS during the Gulf War, and his military has been damaged greatly from the same war some seven years later. Of course, he might do it anyway considering he was becoming mentally unhinged at the time. Yeltsin wouldn't do anything except drink. China would probably get some influence and oil by helping Iran out, and the CIA would almost definitely go back to supplying weapons to their favorite Saudi and the Afghani "freedom fighters". One can only wonder if and when the War on Terror starts and what will a better trained, supplied, and wealthier (but at the same time weaker from manpower losses) al-Qaeda would fare.
Some things that would occur during an Iran-Afghan War.
1. Oil/Gas prices would go through the roof.
2. And like in OTL, while the Taliban would be pushed out of control in a few weeks against an Iran-Northern Alliance 'Alliance', they'd be waging a guerilla war against the 'Iranian Puppet Government' in Kabul.
3. The CIA would become chummy with al-Qaeda and the Taliban (again).
4. Osama Bin Ladin would decide that Shia Iran is the real enemy after all and put his resources into fighting them.
5. Both two and three are true even if the embassies in Africa have been bombed like in OTL.
6. Pakistan would get directly involved to help the Taliban, they don't want to have to deal with Iran on one side of the border, India on the other with out at least some sort of buffer between them and Iran.
7. China would supply Iran directly for more influence.
8. The Sunni Monarchies/Dictatorships of the Middle East would be backing the Taliban (covertly if not publicly).
9. The Iranian public would be easy to whip up into a nationalistic fervor due to the start of the war, i.e. the murder of their diplomats. But if/when the war and occupation dragged on and on, their patience would wear thin... Dangerously so...
Now for some wild cards.
1. Iran's Nuclear Program, would they decide to invest more into it? Scrap it in favor of spending more money on conventional weapons?
2. Saddam in Iraq. Would he want to reinvade Iran again? Start talking with America for weapons and cash to make that invasion a reality? Supply the Taliban in a proxy war with Iran instead?
3. Israel, would they offer aid to the Taliban (would the Taliban take that aid), would they if Iran hit the accelerator on their nuclear program decide to bomb Iran? Would America let them or would they go it alone?
4. Russia. Yeltsin himself wouldn't do much, but the people around him might be convinced to support Iran in a proxy war against America. Or at the least to gain influence in the region. So would Yeltsin listen to them or to the Americans? Or would he just get drunk?
5. The Iranian People, with the war dragging on without long-term results, there'd be protests and an anti-war movement, but what would it accomplish? Nothing like the Green Revolution in OTL? A successful overthrow of the government? If that then would it lead to a peaceful transition to democracy? A new dictatorship? A civil war? A new monarchy? A different Islamist government?
1. Oil/Gas prices would go through the roof.
2. And like in OTL, while the Taliban would be pushed out of control in a few weeks against an Iran-Northern Alliance 'Alliance', they'd be waging a guerilla war against the 'Iranian Puppet Government' in Kabul.
3. The CIA would become chummy with al-Qaeda and the Taliban (again).
4. Osama Bin Ladin would decide that Shia Iran is the real enemy after all and put his resources into fighting them.
5. Both two and three are true even if the embassies in Africa have been bombed like in OTL.
6. Pakistan would get directly involved to help the Taliban, they don't want to have to deal with Iran on one side of the border, India on the other with out at least some sort of buffer between them and Iran.
7. China would supply Iran directly for more influence.
8. The Sunni Monarchies/Dictatorships of the Middle East would be backing the Taliban (covertly if not publicly).
9. The Iranian public would be easy to whip up into a nationalistic fervor due to the start of the war, i.e. the murder of their diplomats. But if/when the war and occupation dragged on and on, their patience would wear thin... Dangerously so...
Now for some wild cards.
1. Iran's Nuclear Program, would they decide to invest more into it? Scrap it in favor of spending more money on conventional weapons?
2. Saddam in Iraq. Would he want to reinvade Iran again? Start talking with America for weapons and cash to make that invasion a reality? Supply the Taliban in a proxy war with Iran instead?
3. Israel, would they offer aid to the Taliban (would the Taliban take that aid), would they if Iran hit the accelerator on their nuclear program decide to bomb Iran? Would America let them or would they go it alone?
4. Russia. Yeltsin himself wouldn't do much, but the people around him might be convinced to support Iran in a proxy war against America. Or at the least to gain influence in the region. So would Yeltsin listen to them or to the Americans? Or would he just get drunk?
5. The Iranian People, with the war dragging on without long-term results, there'd be protests and an anti-war movement, but what would it accomplish? Nothing like the Green Revolution in OTL? A successful overthrow of the government? If that then would it lead to a peaceful transition to democracy? A new dictatorship? A civil war? A new monarchy? A different Islamist government?
deathscompanion1
Banned
The Mongols, Greeks and Indians all want a word with you.
Also has the latest war really gone all that badly? It hasn't achieved much but the Taliban have lost a lot and probably will take years even decades to fully recover if they ever do. I know its unpopular and a horrendous waste of money but it hasn't come close to Soviet or British Empire invasion level clusterfucks.
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ThePest179
Banned
I doubt Yeltsin would do much besides get drunk and put it off, Putin is the real wild card here, considering his ant-West rhetoric didn't get serious until after several years of his rule. Israel can't bomb Iran because of the long bomber range (which is part of why they haven't yet). Considering that the OTL Iranian nuclear hasn't produced any nuclear weapons, I doubt more "effort" put into it would help much. Iraq and the anti-war movement are the real wild cards, and we have no idea what will happen in the future with the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and if there would ever be a War on Terror.
Is it that big a waste? As long as the US Army is there AQ can't make it a sanctuary as before 9/11.
At this point I've assumed that the War on Terror has been butterflied away, though I also assume that once the Iran-Afghan War ends, Al-Qaeda (or a similar group or hell, a fusion of the Taliban and Al-Qaeda) will attack America and set off some sort of Anti-Islamist campaign.
However the nature of that campaign will depend on who is in the White House at that point, and since Al-Qaeda will be busy with the Iran-Afghan War and it's aftermath for at least a decade, that's long term.
I doubt this would affect the US Presidential elections of 2000 too much, but if 9/11 is delayed then George W. Bush would most likely wind up a one-term president, which is the path I think he was on in OTL prior to 9/11.
Long-term I see China-Iran relations being very much improved, and if/when Putin took over Russia I could see him cozying up to Iran as well. IF and only if the Islamic Republic is still in charge.
Now how would the rest of Central Asia deal with the Iran-Afghan War?
ThePest179
Banned
Maybe he was referring to the continued presence of the Taliban?
In any case, let's just stay on topic guys.
ThePest179
Banned
I think the Islamic theocracy we see standing would likely remain. Of course, I'm not exactly one to know. I would THINK that the anti-war movement would face the persecution of the US anti-Vietnam War movement times ten, but I have no idea if it would strike back or be crushed. One thing is certain though: Iran would eventually pull out, but the when is an elusive question.
Redhand
Banned
It's too late for that. The bombings in Nairobi, which happened almost at the same time as this attack, permanently made AQ dead to us. Also, due to the lack of Cold War implications, I doubt a proxy war would be seen as necessary, especially if it is one that directly benefits Saddam Hussein. He was seen as far more important of an enemy than the reclusive Iranians.
You know with Chinese support the Islamic government could save itself from being overthrown by popular revolt. The best advisers on that sort of thing would be the PRC after all...
So the Islamic Republic of Iran would still stand in all it's theocratic nastiness.
At that point it would be courted by both China and Russia...
Now once Iran did pull out of Afghanistan, what sort of government would emerge there? Would the government Iran installed survive? The Taliban resurge? A certain Afghan King return from exile? Something new?