WI: Iran intervenes in the WoT

Greetings!

IOTL, Iran's aid to the Iraqi insurgents and Taliban has been limited. In Iraq, Iranian aid is linked to approximately 500 US deaths, out of over 4,000.

But what if, for one reason or another, Iran decided to give massive support to the oppositoion in Iraq and Afghanistan, including heavy weapons and Revolutionary Guard advisors?

The introduction of MANPADS and advanced anti-armor weapons could create an environment similar to the Soviet War in Afghanistan. Movement by air is restricted, reducing mobility across rough terrain, thus handing more control of the countryside to the enemy. This leaves movement by vehicle as the only reliable method of transportation, but the introdunction of better anti-vehicle weapons and tactics leads to a corrosponding spike in casualties.

IRGC advisors could foster a more highly trained insurgency, which could inflict more casualties on coalition forces. Plus, CAS would suffer significantly from the introduction of MANPADS, forcing troops to go without CAS in many cases. Altogether, this would lead to more coalition infantry casualties and less success on the ground.

What do you think?
 
The Iranians aren't going to aid the Taliban. They almost went to war with the Taliban in the summer of 2001 when the Tali's murdered some Iranian diplomats until the US talked them out of it (a decision the US subsequently came to regret that September). They hated the Taliban's guts. It just isn't going to happen.

Iraq is more complicated because the insurgency there isn't as much a unifiedish bloc like it is in Afghanistan. There was considerable aid to the various Shi'ia militia who played insurgent at time, which is where that 500 US deaths figure comes from, but the Sunni insurgents received nothing (at least, not directly) from them. But the Iranians weren't interested in having the militia's actually undermine the US created Iraqi government which was steadily falling under their control anyways, so they used their influence to put the breaks on Shi'ia insurgent activity which is why the figure is only 500 US dead linked to Iranian supplied weapons and not 2,000 or so.

So the WI here isn't "what if the Iranians arm the Iraqi insurgency more"... it's "what if the Iranians don't use their influence to restrain the Iraqis Shi'ia from attacking US forces". It'd be a bit of a dumb move on the Iranians part, but nations have done such dumb moves before.
 
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