WI: Iran Captures Baghdad 1982-4, Reactions and Implications

What if Iran Captures Baghdad 1982-4, Reactions and Implications

An unlikely scenario but what if the Iranians do much better then OTL, the Iraqi Army collapses, and Baghdad falls sometimes between 1982-84? What does Saddam Hussein, implying he lives, do going forward? What would Iran attempt now having taken the Iraqi capital? Reactions around the region and world? Implications?

The Iranian generals wanted to launch an all-out attack on Baghdad and seize it before the weapon shortages continued to manifest further.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Iraq_War
 
What if Iran Captures Baghdad 1982-4, Reactions and Implications

An unlikely scenario but what if the Iranians do much better then OTL, the Iraqi Army collapses, and Baghdad falls sometimes between 1982-84? What does Saddam Hussein, implying he lives, do going forward? What would Iran attempt now having taken the Iraqi capital? Reactions around the region and world? Implications?

Frankly, I think the Reagan Administration would have pulled out all the stops to aid the Iraqi regime long before that situation would have come about. Financial aid, copious shipments of military equipment, relaying intelligence, politely looking the other way when Saddam lobs chemical weapons at the advancing Iranians... The Hostage Crisis would still be a very recent memory, here. Not to mention the geostrategic problems involved should the Iranians take over Iraq and its oil reserves.
 
I doubted they had any plans or logistical capability to move beyond Basra.

I read a declassified CIA document on this subject-the author theorized that Egypt and the Gulf States wouldn't fight directly (little capability and would cause too much ill will) but would lean very heavily on the US to intervene.
 
Frankly, I think the Reagan Administration would have pulled out all the stops to aid the Iraqi regime long before that situation would have come about. Financial aid, copious shipments of military equipment, relaying intelligence, politely looking the other way when Saddam lobs chemical weapons at the advancing Iranians... The Hostage Crisis would still be a very recent memory, here. Not to mention the geostrategic problems involved should the Iranians take over Iraq and its oil reserves.

Thanks for the comment. :)

True. However if we imply greater systemic damage to the Iraqi Army I'm not sure what the U.S. could do. For instance Iraqi Army morale was terrible in this period, not sure how the U.S. could help that....

If the collapse occurs before 1984, chemical weapons might be less of an issue. Not sure what Saddam had ready prior to that...
Saddam Hussein's chemical warfare development and use can be divided into three phases:
Phase 1: January 1981 to June 1983, Iraq started testing chemical weapons.
Phase 2: August 1983 to December 1983, chemical weapons were used to a limited extent.
Phase 3: February 1984 to the end of the war, chemical weapons were used extensively.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_chemical_weapons_program
 
Thanks for the comment. :)

True. However if we imply greater systemic damage to the Iraqi Army I'm not sure what the U.S. could do.

Hit their logistics from the air. Iran's logistics were always in bad shape (which is why the Iraqis actually outnumbered them despite the different population sizes), and air attacks against stuff that Iraq couldn't hit but that the US could wouldn't help matters.
 
Thanks for the comment. :)

True. However if we imply greater systemic damage to the Iraqi Army I'm not sure what the U.S. could do. For instance Iraqi Army morale was terrible in this period, not sure how the U.S. could help that....

If the collapse occurs before 1984, chemical weapons might be less of an issue. Not sure what Saddam had ready prior to that...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_chemical_weapons_program

Worst come to worst, they could always park a couple of Carriers in the Persian Gulf and bomb the Iranian columns and their logistical trains till nothing was moving.
 
What if Iran Captures Baghdad 1982-4, Reactions and Implications

An unlikely scenario but what if the Iranians do much better then OTL, the Iraqi Army collapses, and Baghdad falls sometimes between 1982-84? What does Saddam Hussein, implying he lives, do going forward? What would Iran attempt now having taken the Iraqi capital? Reactions around the region and world? Implications?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Iraq_War

In this event, I fully expect an American-led intervention against the Iran that has just broken the Iraqi state, acquiesced to by a Soviet Union that has just seen its chief Middle Eastern ally fall. The collapse of Iraq means that the only military power indigenous to the Persian Gulf capable of challenging Iran has fallen, leaving the smaller and richer states vulnerable to a resurgent Iran. There is no prospect of anyone allowing Iran to be in a position to take further advantage of Iraq's fall.
 
Top