When the op. is 5 times the size of Crete with massive air support and air supremacy, not contestable by the Brits, plus there is a 3 division marine force coming in with the full RM, and Axis commando units are attacking several hours beforehand to damage installations and pinpoint resistance and troop concentration, on an island 300 km² (Crete was 8,336 km²), I'd say they have a much better chance. The island was bombed to ruin by the time the operation would have occurred. Hell, the LW stopped bombing, because there was nothing else to hit, it was all gone. Experienced troops were going on, not distributed everywhere, just one air field (2 divisions including Crete vets), who had at their disposal hundreds of elite bombers from the RA and LW. Any Allied soldier or armor that shows himself is going to get bombed into oblivion. There is no allied support for hundreds of miles, which means that a naval relief force would take days to organize, send, and arrive. There are simply too many factors going for the Axis that were nonexistent at Crete for them to fail. Sure, casualties are going to happen, and they may be bad, but the paras were not being used in their intended role any day, and taking Malta would be worth two air divisions anyway. Hell, the Axis lost much more in shipping because of the island, so why not stop the bleeding? The troops on the ground were being starved out at this point (being reduced from the recommended 4,000 calories that a soldier needs, to 2,000, the minimum to sustain life). Come combat, these troops are going to be sluggish and hungry. Combat capacity reduced.