WI Intelligence of Operation Torch Compromised?

Anaxagoras

Banned
IOTL, Operation Torch, the Allied landings in French North Africa in November of 1942, achieved a surprising level of strategic surprise. What if German intelligence uncovered Allied intentions in advance? Say, six weeks before the landings.
 
Well, if the Axis had any chance to stop an american landing, Torch is the one. In late 1942, they still had a powerfull Luftwaffe, lots of subs and reserve armies. Besides, if they would be able to make the french fight on their side, the allies could very well have been defeated. The french fleet, the italian fleet and the german air force combined could be very dangerous if coordinated. The french fleet, indeed, was willing to fight the allies, as it showed in OTL with their courageous but ill coordinate resistance. Maybe you don't need to discover Ultra to do so, a well placed spy (maybe in Gibraltar?) would do it.
What would it mean? Rommel still would retreat from El Alamein. Probably, Paulus still would surrender in Stalingrad. But West North Africa would remain in axis hands, Vichy france would become a real german ally, and the germans would not loose 200.000 men in the silly defence of Tunisia. 1943 would begin with a much undecided war situation compared to OTL.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
What would it mean? Rommel still would retreat from El Alamein. Probably, Paulus still would surrender in Stalingrad. But West North Africa would remain in axis hands, Vichy france would become a real german ally, and the germans would not loose 200.000 men in the silly defence of Tunisia.

I tend to agree. It seems to me that this would have a substantial impact of the future course of the war. Any thoughts from anyone?
 
With the western Med in Axis hands, there is no italian front in 1943. But the allies do need a front. So, maybe, the american option for a 1943 D-Day in France goes on, if the failed Torch losses can be replaced. Or the allies go for a second run in Africa-Italy, but it means they do get to Italy at least until mid-1944.
I can see a D-day in summer 43, with the germans heavily engaged in Kursk. Can go any way.
 
IOTL, Operation Torch, the Allied landings in French North Africa in November of 1942, achieved a surprising level of strategic surprise. What if German intelligence uncovered Allied intentions in advance? Say, six weeks before the landings.

You'd be suprised how many leaks there actually were. I can think of at least 1 Abwehr agent who knew of the invasion, and a page containing vital secrets vanished from the diary of Eisenhower's aide de camp.
 

bard32

Banned
Since I'm writing, (or trying to write,) an AH novel about this, I'll take a crack
at it. The Abwehr, German Military Intelligence, under the leadership of Admiral Wilhelm Canaris, through agents in Spain and Portugal, obtains the
plans for Operation Torch. These agents send them to the German Embassy
in Madrid, which forwards them to Berlin, and they end up in Canaris' hands.
Canaris then sends them to Hitler. Hitler decides that the American contingent,
half of which is leaving from the East Coast of the United States, and half of
which is leaving from Britain, has to be destroyed. He orders his U-boats,
E-boats, and Germany's aircraft carrier, Deutschland, to intercept the
American invasion force in the Mid-Atlantic, and the commander of the German task force, Admiral Gunther Lutjens, orders his navalized Me. 109s and Stukas, into the air to sink the American ships. The German battleship
Bismarck, and cruiser Prinz Eugen, which are part of the German
Mediterranean Fleet, based at Malta, harass the Allies. They sink Allied ships
trying to resupply the Allies in North Africa. Rommel had defeated Montgomery at El Alamein and captured the entire British Eighth Army.
 
Top