WI: Inejiro Asanuma is not assassinated in 1960 and survives

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Eonex, Dec 5, 2018 at 10:56 PM.

  1. Eonex Member

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    Scrolling through Youtube I found the video of his assasination, by the hands of Otoya Yamaguchi, a 17 year old nationalist. Comments mention that this was necessary for the greater good of Japan, because otherwise Japan would have turned heavily socialist.

    If he survived (and very probably won the Prime Minister seat), what would have happened with Japan as a whole? Would she had turned to Mao and China, maybe seeking help from the Soviet Union instead of the US, how this would affect Japan-America relationship?
     
  2. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    Would he? We're talking about a heavily criticized leader of a party which never even managed to even draw a third of the electorate.
     
  3. Eonex Member

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    I mean, if you survive an assessination attempt, you get pretty popular, and more people pay attention to what you say, even if they didn't care about you or didint bother to learn who were you before. Look at Bolsonaro in Brazil...
     
  4. SealTheRealDeal Well-Known Member

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    Yeah but we're talking about a guy who traveled to Mao's China to proclaim that America was Japan's eternal enemy. This is post war Japan, I think more people would be disappointed that attempt on his life had failed.
     
  5. Unknown Member

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    Here's the video of it; this was probably the first assassination aired live on TV, IIRC:


    On a side note, some people in Japan view this like many Spaniards view the assassination of Admiral Blanco--as a good thing...
     
  6. Monter Well-Known Member

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    Bolsonaro was leading the polls before the stabbing and still lead after. The incident had little effect on the results.
     
  7. Nivek Resident Videogame Expert

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    I doubt big political changes ...economics one however he would push to control and regulated the keretsu and workers right and for me that is a better and massive plus
     
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  8. Changundramon Well-Known Member

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    A Japan that is not a steadfast ally of America would be interesting. I doubt Asanuma could make Japan fully anti-American, but a neutral Japan is realistic.
     
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  9. manav95 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Asanuma would have gotten far with his party. The Liberal Democrats had a strangehold on political power until 1993, and this was due to Japan's worsening economy and corruption scandals in the party(I think). And they were only out fon a year before coming back in. And then lost power from 2009-2012, and then came back. Unless the Japanese economy tanks during the 1960s and far right terrorist groups pop up that the Liberal Democrats are hesitant to stop, the Socialists won't take over.
     
  10. Simon Thread Killer Extraordinaire

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    Do you? You certainly get more media attention but I'm not sure that automatically translates to 'get[ting] pretty popular'.


    The man who was ahead in the polls when he was attacked? I'm not sure that really backs up your argument.
     
  11. SpookyBoy Femboy Insurrection

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    [​IMG]
     
  12. manav95 Well-Known Member

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    In the US, conservatives are quick to lump the two together.
     
  13. IntellectuallyHonestRhino Well-Known Member

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    No I don't think they would want him to die but their personal sympathy wouldn't translate to votes.
     
  14. Anarch King of Dipsodes Overlord of All Thirst

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    In the OTL 1960 election, the Liberal Democrats outpolled the Socialists 58.1% to 27.4%. For the Socialists to win (so Asanuma becomes PM), one-sixth of Japan's voters would have to switch. There is nothing to suggest any such switch was possible. In four elecions (1958, 1960, 1963, 1967), the Socialist drew under 30% three times, and 33% once.
     
  15. Changundramon Well-Known Member

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    Apparently in 1980, Socialists were close to winning power. A fatal heart attack to the Prime Minister may have rallied the LDP to avoid defeat there.
     
  16. David T Well-Known Member

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    Even assuming (very dubiously IMO) that the JSP would have won in 1980 if not for Ohira's death (in OTL the JSP got 19% of the vote--a percentage too low to be accounted for by the "sympathy vote" alone) by 1980 Asanuma would be 82 years old by the end of the year and hardly likely to lead the party.
     
  17. David T Well-Known Member

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    Very improbable.

    (1) The JSP as formed in 1955 didn't even represent a complete reunion of the Left Socialist Party and the Right Socialist Party--an important section of the Right Socialists refused to go along with the merger and formed the Democratic Socialist Party. Certainly as long as the JSP was led by someone as left-wing as Asanuma, the DSP would never support it. And the Communists (who got only 2.9 percent of the vote in 1960) were certainly not enough to produce a majority for a JSP-led government.

    (2) The JSP never came remotely close to winning an election for decades, even in terms of the popular vote.

    (3) Moreover, gerrymandering in favor of the rural areas helped solidify the LDP's majority in the Diet. In 1960 for example the LDP got "only" 58.1 percent of the vote but 300 of 467 seats in the House of Representatives (64.2 percent). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_Japanese_general_election

    (4) It is very unlikely that a sympathy effect drastically changes the vote. Maybe being shot helped TR a little in 1912 but he still finished with only 27 percent of the vote, far behind Wilson. And Bolsonaro as others have noted was leading in the polls before his stabbing.

    (5) In general, YouTube commenters are not a reliable source of information. :p
     
  18. Eonex Member

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    Well, it seems like I was going too far with my arguments. You have been very kind with pointing out your points as it's been the case with everyone else. And looks like I need to learn more about 1960's Japan before doing this kind of posts again. But everyone learns that way, right? Thanks :p Maybe if I want a left-winged Japan I need an earlier POD.