There are many threads on the general topic of India reforming its economy much as China did, historically. This is merely the most recent, and a thought occurred to me:
Let us assume that the history of Communist China pretty much goes as it did, with the Cultural Revolution leading to the convulsions that ultimately opened up the economy. I'm of the school of thought that it wasn't so much Deng being a visionary reformer as just a pragmatist that realized that the Party could no longer afford to impose Maoist style communism on such a vast country, and with the local populations all but ignoring Beijing's attempts at re-asserting control, it was better to just go with the flow rather than against it.
Let us also assume that India's economy booms quite well, and prior to when China's do in our history. Supply chains and all the rest of the physical, political, and interpersonal logistics involved in becoming a major exporting country develop around this, effectively beating China to the punch. Ties between local and foreign companies, favorable trade treaties, the whole bunch. China, meanwhile, struggles to catch up, having little to offer that India doesn't in this scenario. They may find some niches to fill, so they're not quite as stagnant as India was in our history, but nothing like their historical performance. Lets say that India's nominal GDP is somewhere in the ballpark of China's ($14.8 trillion), while China's is between Germany's ($3.8 tril) and Japan's ($4.9 tril) - better than India's in our history ($2.6 tril) but no juggernaut.
So, here's the big question I'm most interested in: What is the likely assessment of the Chinese reforms in this world's discourse? How do policy makers, academics, pundits, etc. view a vast communist country that has embraced comparable market reforms to what we've seen from our history's China, but has struggled to achieve true wealth from them? On the one hand, some might argue that this is proof that a market economy is not that much superior to a communist economy, but this scenario has India achieving said reforms and reaping the benefit, and though they were not communist, they certainly had an economy that was state controlled enough to make little difference.
Let us assume that the history of Communist China pretty much goes as it did, with the Cultural Revolution leading to the convulsions that ultimately opened up the economy. I'm of the school of thought that it wasn't so much Deng being a visionary reformer as just a pragmatist that realized that the Party could no longer afford to impose Maoist style communism on such a vast country, and with the local populations all but ignoring Beijing's attempts at re-asserting control, it was better to just go with the flow rather than against it.
Let us also assume that India's economy booms quite well, and prior to when China's do in our history. Supply chains and all the rest of the physical, political, and interpersonal logistics involved in becoming a major exporting country develop around this, effectively beating China to the punch. Ties between local and foreign companies, favorable trade treaties, the whole bunch. China, meanwhile, struggles to catch up, having little to offer that India doesn't in this scenario. They may find some niches to fill, so they're not quite as stagnant as India was in our history, but nothing like their historical performance. Lets say that India's nominal GDP is somewhere in the ballpark of China's ($14.8 trillion), while China's is between Germany's ($3.8 tril) and Japan's ($4.9 tril) - better than India's in our history ($2.6 tril) but no juggernaut.
So, here's the big question I'm most interested in: What is the likely assessment of the Chinese reforms in this world's discourse? How do policy makers, academics, pundits, etc. view a vast communist country that has embraced comparable market reforms to what we've seen from our history's China, but has struggled to achieve true wealth from them? On the one hand, some might argue that this is proof that a market economy is not that much superior to a communist economy, but this scenario has India achieving said reforms and reaping the benefit, and though they were not communist, they certainly had an economy that was state controlled enough to make little difference.
