WI: INDIA A US ALLY DURING COLD WAR

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by Freedom2018, Jun 12, 2019.

  1. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    In otl India was a non aligned member but was tilted to the USSR . Say in this time line India aligns with the USA. This can be possible if the following chain of events takes place
    A) Nehru and much of the Congress elite become disappointed in socialism in general and Soviet socialism in particular.

    There are numerous ways by which this could take place say Nehru and the rest comes to know of Soviet famine of the 1930s or the gulags or the forced collectivization of farms or the Soviet foreign policy pre and post war .
    The New deal of FDR influence Nehru and Congress and also the works of John Maynard Keynes and abandoned the socialist idea in favour of Keynesian one .
    However this doesn't mean India will have a free market capitalism at the time of independence but rather a regulated capitalism but not a license permit inspection Raj of our time line . There will be a lot of regulations but none of the socialist character.

    B) China going communist makes India seek strategic partnership with the US .

    The threat of Communist country at the door step actually should have caused alarm for policy makes in new Delhi but this wasn't the case in our time line . However a clearly anti communist policy makers will seek a partnership with the US . The partnership will focus more on intelligence sharing and on sale of arms rather than being allies

    C) The Chinese take over of Tibet happens much earlier than in our time line

    With a anti communist neighbour China would waste time in taking over Tibet lest India establish a protectorate with US. Backing. This would have a blow back as India would seek a closer alliance with the US. This take over would take place immediately on the back of the Korean war . The US would extend to India Humanitarian aid and assistance in the area of agriculture, education and health care in public and in private would extend military aid not to cause alarm to the communist China

    D) India China war causes India to become a US Ally regardless of the outcome of the war

    What impact would these events have on the cold war
     
  2. Questerr Well-Known Member

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    India as a US ally means Pakistan will turn to the Soviets. At the very least, that closes the back door for supplying the Muj in Afghanistan.
     
  3. Vikayak Devagiri Member

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    A Non Partitioned India could result in India being a US ally
     
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  4. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    No we are not going down that road , the partition is suffice reason for the partition just look at the horror! Sadly partition was the best thing that happened to the subcontinent
     
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  5. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    Why not an uneasy alliance? Depends on the Indians ofcourse , Pakistan can coaxed into an alliance by the United States but in this time line India accepts the alliance to form a common front against China and USSR this btw actually happened in otl in 1959 on the back drop of India China border crises when Pakistan under pressure from United States offered a hand of alliance.
    Now how long will this alliance last ? I don't know not longer than the end of the cold war I believe.
    Indian and Pakistani forces may collaborate against Communist insurgency in each other countries
    Now if Pakistan turns to the USSR which I think is unlikely given the fact that west Pakistan was and is conservative and capitalist in culture as opposed to east Pakistan which is liberal and socialist
    If it does turn to USSR and become socialist chances are civil war in Pakistan post Soviet collapse
     
  6. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    Btw does this butterfly Soviet sino split and sino American understanding during the Nixon era ???
     
  7. thekingsguard Founder of Korsgaardianism

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    India isn't stuck stagnating under various forms of socialism for decades, for one.

    It also means that some of that industry, aid and investment that in OTL, went to China, may ITTL go to India... and ironically, the US/West would have less to fear about the rise of an Indian superpower, than they would Japan/China. A rising power in East Asia will always come into conflicts with the USA over the Pacific Rim... but India more or less may have the chance to turn the Indian Ocean into its own sphere of influence.
     
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  8. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I had a brief discussion on economic aspects of this
    A 11 trillion dollars economy by 2019 in exchange rate and 26 trillion dollars by PPP, two digit growth rate form 1992-2011
    Anyway the period from 1947-1989 India would not be much of a threat to the Americans
    India was just a 32 billion dollars economy in 1947 by 1991 it was 287 billion, in this time line it would be around 600 billion at exchange rate and in terms of ppp it would be around 2 .2 trillion just 10 percent of us economy Or less than half of the US economy
    Americans won't even bother with it. Until the Indians overtake the Soviets.

    But I do wonder how India would react to the collapse of the USSR if it happens in this time line that is.
     
  9. Vikayak Devagiri Member

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    You see the reason why Pakistan is good friend or was a friend of USA because of the Great Game it inherited from the British Empire, If India was not Partitioned, Then India would inherit that position and India will be more or less forced to ally with USA due to its proximity to USSR
     
  10. thekingsguard Founder of Korsgaardianism

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    What would India have looked like with Chinese growth rates?
     
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  11. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    India has China , don't need the USSR , we think the Himalayas will protect us true in part but technology has shown us it's not the case . That's the problem with Indian policy makes back in those days , had a threat right at the door step
     
  12. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    Well the human development index would be high , the average salary of an Indian would be 7,000 USD per year, per capita income around 11,000 USD at exchange rate and 20,000 at ppp, better infrastructure,health care and services, a high middle income economy at best , population would be less by 350 million atleast since economic development took off 35 years early .
    Politically I really don't know, the Gandhi dynasty would be a proponent of a free market capitalism and the BJP which would rise in even in this time line would be more protectionist
    Foreign policy wise as @thekingsguard said India would carve out a sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean so there is the rise of a blue water naval power that would cause some concern to the United States
     
  13. thekingsguard Founder of Korsgaardianism

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    Only thing I disagree with is the blue water navy in the Indian Ocean being a concern, given the USA mainly concerns itself with the Atlantic and Pacific. Especially given India is an ally.
     
  14. West Well-Known Member

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    India and china had a war during the 60s it was brief but if that spiraled out of control then America would definantly back them to the hilt which would make relations much better.
     
  15. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    True
     
  16. Freedom2018 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the yankees may help Indians in the war more if China is helping the north Vietnamese forces and if it results in a stalemate or a Chinese defeat what does it mean ? ,

    Mao is replaced or overthrowed ? Will sino Soviet split takes place ?

    As for war in the 60 s is unlikely given the fact that India and USA have a secret alliance which the Soviet union and China would be aware of so the war may take place in the late 1950s

    Say if by a long shot the Indian army liberate Tibet (although why would India do such a thing is beyond me)it has the means to do so given the fact that India had access to aksai chin which is very strategically important with regards to Tibet ,

    Regardless, how would the eastern bloc react ?
    As for The west would feel triumphant because a communist nation was defeated and driven back .or a occupied territory was liberated if Indians decide to go all the way
     
  17. HistoricalArthropod Well-Known Member

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    No, it really wasn't.
     
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  18. kernals12 Well-Known Member

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    A nonpartitioned India would devolve into civil war.
     
  19. kernals12 Well-Known Member

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    If India grew like Taiwan and South Korea, Per Capita Income would be about $40,000 in PPP terms today.
     
  20. kernals12 Well-Known Member

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    A US aligned India would do much to stop the spread of communism in Southeast Asia. Burmese coup? No problem, India invades and restores the civilian government. Also lots and lots of troops for Vietnam.