WI: Independent Texas instead of Confederate?

During the American Civil War, Texas was the last Confederate state to secede from the Union. What if, instead of joining the CSA, Texas decided to become an independent republic again? Perhaps the Texans wanted to keep slavery but didn't want to go to war with the Union, and sought to become a buffer state between the US and Mexico instead. Maybe they could reestablished separate relations with Mexico against the US. I doubt any European powers would be particularly interested in Texas, but maybe they'd get diplomatically involved with the French intervention in Mexico.

I don't know, just some ideas. How would this work?
 

Marc

Donor
Culturally Texas was as Southern as any of the Deep South states - where almost all of the leadership class came from (and large numbers of settlers).
It's been brought up a number of times fairly recently. Then consensus seems to be:
1. Real long odds of it happening.
2., Longer odds of a Texas Republic staying out of the Civil War.
3. Just about 3 sigma odds that it would stay independent regardless.
 
Oh they'd likely still fall into war with the union-lincoln wasn't going to give up his damn forts, but it would be a side thing or just later. But with (I think it was Sherman, maybe grant) not preoccupied with going down the Mississippi, I think the confederacy would collapse faster.


And then Texas would just disintegrate under the union's mass.
 
Texas simply cannot resist the Union. Absent Texas, things are worse for the CSA although its not a horror show. Once the CSA has lost, now the Union turns to Texas and once they move forces to Texas, game over.
 
The only real potentia butterfly I can see is that multiple rebellions might be more likely to engender European support, in that it gives a greater sense of the Union being oppressive and it allows European powers to attempt to play parties off against one another. Not much of a chance, but that’s the only real line a can envision.
 
My favorite variant on Texas is; Col RE Lee is not replaced at the last minute as commander of the San Antonio US Army post by a pro Southern/States Rights officer. That Colonel allowed the Texas state militia to occupy the fort and take custody of the Federal arms there & other US Army property. No shots fired. WI if Lee is not replaced & arrived at his post? Lee was a by the book kind of guy & at this point Virginia was not yet debating succession. Does Lee tell the Texas militia to piss off & his soldiers to load weapons, or roll over & give up the key? What happens if the militia push the point and the Federals open fire?
 
My favorite variant on Texas is; Col RE Lee is not replaced at the last minute as commander of the San Antonio US Army post by a pro Southern/States Rights officer. That Colonel allowed the Texas state militia to occupy the fort and take custody of the Federal arms there & other US Army property. No shots fired. WI if Lee is not replaced & arrived at his post? Lee was a by the book kind of guy & at this point Virginia was not yet debating succession. Does Lee tell the Texas militia to piss off & his soldiers to load weapons, or roll over & give up the key? What happens if the militia push the point and the Federals open fire?

Wasn't there a Turtledove short story about such a scenario?
 
During the American Civil War, Texas was the last Confederate state to secede from the Union. What if, instead of joining the CSA, Texas decided to become an independent republic again? Perhaps the Texans wanted to keep slavery but didn't want to go to war with the Union, and sought to become a buffer state between the US and Mexico instead. Maybe they could reestablished separate relations with Mexico against the US. I doubt any European powers would be particularly interested in Texas, but maybe they'd get diplomatically involved with the French intervention in Mexico.

I don't know, just some ideas. How would this work?
It is extremely doubtful that Texas would go independent again. Popular myth is that Mexico stopped after the Battle of San Jacinto. There were follow on battles and engagements throughout the ten years Texas was independent with Mexico.

As Mexico was under "temporary management" with Maximillian they may or may not be more disposed to restart invasion plans.

Additionally, Texas had the issue that the Comanche Empire was in full swing at that time. When US forces left and Texas sent volunteers East, the defacto frontier was rolled back a hundred miles or more (by rolled back meaning settlers fled or were slaughtered). Texas may not be keen to do that on a permanent basis.

Frankly its not a substantial issue for the Union one way or another. While one Texan is worth five Southerners or ten Yankees :) their numbers were very low at the time. Either way Union forces will return to take it back, although Lincoln might be tempted to leave them to their own demise.
 
Wasn't there a Turtledove short story about such a scenario?

Don't know. Have not read Turttle dove for a very very long time. Originally read a article on it in a game magazine. The author was leading around to the idea of: A. a different sequence in Secession. B. Lee being tainted as a Unionist from this hypothetic decision at San Antonio & no available to the Confederacy.
 
I would say Texans get a lot of their more current identity (over the last century, all just my opinion) from the image of cowboys, which was not actually seen as the greatest of things back around the Civil War. Heck, a lot of cowboys were minorities, and I imagine people back then wouldn't like being compared to the Mexican ranchers. Besides, secession would cut them off from driving cattle northwards, and the planters would want to keep things based on slave labor. You guys think there would still be the mass Janine's of Unionists and Hermans? Not even Unoinists, just people complaining about how people with lots of slaves were exempt from being conscripted, while the rest of them were being forced to fight. Despite slave owners being maybe ten percent in the county, they made up the entire jury. Everyone was found guilty and executed. Even those already found not guilty, who were then given a second trial and hanged. Think Texas would keep claiming Gree County? And I doubt that the federal government will give any support in a war seaizing land from Mexico if the Texans try it a second time. Actually, didn't Texas join the US partially because it couldn't make it financially as an independent state? Or was it more because it was a Republic build on slavery?
 

Marc

Donor
I would say Texans get a lot of their more current identity (over the last century, all just my opinion) from the image of cowboys, which was not actually seen as the greatest of things back around the Civil War. Heck, a lot of cowboys were minorities, and I imagine people back then wouldn't like being compared to the Mexican ranchers. Besides, secession would cut them off from driving cattle northwards, and the planters would want to keep things based on slave labor. You guys think there would still be the mass Janine's of Unionists and Hermans? Not even Unoinists, just people complaining about how people with lots of slaves were exempt from being conscripted, while the rest of them were being forced to fight. Despite slave owners being maybe ten percent in the county, they made up the entire jury. Everyone was found guilty and executed. Even those already found not guilty, who were then given a second trial and hanged. Think Texas would keep claiming Gree County? And I doubt that the federal government will give any support in a war seaizing land from Mexico if the Texans try it a second time. Actually, didn't Texas join the US partially because it couldn't make it financially as an independent state? Or was it more because it was a Republic build on slavery?

I believe the current thought is that a substantial majority of cowboys were minorities. So much for our myth making.
The potential loss of northern markets would likely be devastating for West Texas, leading the State, if the Rebellion succeeded, to being a larger Alabama, just that.
 
My favorite variant on Texas is; Col RE Lee is not replaced at the last minute as commander of the San Antonio US Army post by a pro Southern/States Rights officer. That Colonel allowed the Texas state militia to occupy the fort and take custody of the Federal arms there & other US Army property. No shots fired. WI if Lee is not replaced & arrived at his post? Lee was a by the book kind of guy & at this point Virginia was not yet debating succession. Does Lee tell the Texas militia to piss off & his soldiers to load weapons, or roll over & give up the key? What happens if the militia push the point and the Federals open fire?

Wasn't there a Turtledove short story about such a scenario?

https://www.tor.com/2011/09/07/lee-at-the-alamo/#more-56359
 
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