WI - independent Somaliland?

What if Somaliland remained an independent state, rather than entering into a union with Somalia? What would it look like in the current day?
 
Didn't Somaliland gain independence in 1960? I was thinking of having it remain separate from Somalia with a POD of May 1960.
It did, for all of five days. They had already agreed to merge with the former Italian Somaliland so you need to find some way to avoid this – the leaders don't come to an agreement, a referendum on it is voted down etc. Those could be something of a challenge though as IIRC public support for union between Somali areas was fairly high at the time.

How wedded to the idea of it being independent right from the start are you? Easiest solution is for when the two merge the British Somaliland leaders make sure to insert a clause in the agreement allowing them the right to secede after a public vote. When things start going to shit in second half of the 1980s they invoke that right and following a successful referendum they break away, which since it's legal means they're much more likely to gain diplomatic recognition.
 
Yes. But they can still be allies against Ethiopia.
If Somalia is as irredentist as she is IOTL, I can see that happening.
How wedded to the idea of it being independent right from the start are you? Easiest solution is for when the two merge the British Somaliland leaders make sure to insert a clause in the agreement allowing them the right to secede after a public vote. When things start going to shit in second half of the 1980s they invoke that right and following a successful referendum they break away, which since it's legal means they're much more likely to gain diplomatic recognition.
I'd prefer if it remained independent from the beginning.
 
I'd prefer if it remained independent from the beginning.
Hhmm, right. In that case you need to find either something to derail the pan-Somali feeling of the time by pushing them apart or something which will exert a stronger pull than union with Italian Somaliland.
 
The French were able to game a few referendums to push back Djibouti's independence quite a bit. Long enough for Somalia to implode, ending public favour for union with their ethnic kin.

You'd probably need Britain to do the same.
 
You know the SSDF was active before then, right? Post-Ogaden Somalia wasn't a peaceful place that magically exploded in 1991.
Not in 1977
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Salvation_Democratic_Front

And? I don't recall suggesting that it was.
You implied that the referendums indicted support for union with Somalia dropped over time. For the other referendums there are wide-spread allegations of vote rigging and manipulation.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_French_Somaliland_constitutional_referendum
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_French_Somaliland_independence_referendum
 
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Not in 1977
Yeah, the year that Somalia's dictator was stuffing his men into a meat grinder in hopes of winning an attritional war against a far larger country. Also not a good look.

You implied that the referendums indicted support for union with Somalia dropped over time
No I didn't. All I said the French kept it as a colony long enough for union with Somalia to no longer be attractive.

For the other referendums there are wide-spread allegations of vote rigging and manipulation.
Which I mentioned.
 
Yeah, the year that Somalia's dictator was stuffing his men into a meat grinder in hopes of winning an attritional war against a far larger country. Also not a good look.
Which happened 2 weeks after independence and was successfully until Soviets arrived months later

No I didn't. All I said the French kept it as a colony long enough for union with Somalia to no longer be attractive.
Do you have any links for public opinion around that time ?
 
Which happened 2 weeks after independence and was successfully until Soviets arrived months later.
I don't think getting bogged down in a war of attrition where you're increasingly running out of manpower and equipment against a country with ten times your population is necessarily a sign of success.
 
Which happened 2 weeks after independence and was successfully until Soviets arrived months later
That Barre sponsored terrorists operating in Djibouti would also fall into the category of "not a good look".

Do you have any links for public opinion around that time ?
In 1957 61% of the colony's population voted in favour of a party which wanted union with Somalia. Aptidon never entertained any notions of union with Somalia post-independence, and when opposition to him solidified in 1991 union with Somalia wasn't one of its goals, which probably indicates that there was no longer much support for it.
 
You guys realize that somilaland is defacto independent right now? They have there own government the only thing they lack is legitimacy
 
You guys realize that somilaland is defacto independent right now? They have there own government the only thing they lack is legitimacy
I’m pretty sure everyone here knows this but the premise of the thread is if Somaliland had effectively remained independent from the former Italian Somaliland and whatnot.
 
I’m pretty sure everyone here knows this but the premise of the thread is if Somaliland had effectively remained independent from the former Italian Somaliland and whatnot.
ahhh maybe have the Italian campaign last much longer leading to a revolt in somila land leading to the Italians collasping then the british move in but seperate somilia and somiland so when breakup occur they go there own way but this somiland is much larger so they are on more equal footing and the usa seeing them as a stragetic chess piece so they move in and supprot them agaisnt commusit ethiopa
 
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