WI - Independent Poland in 1815?

I'll admit it, I don't know much of the Napoleonic Wars but what if an independent Polish state had been established during the Congress of Vienna? How could we get an independent Poland plausibly?
 
I'll admit it, I don't know much of the Napoleonic Wars but what if an independent Polish state had been established during the Congress of Vienna? How could we get an independent Poland plausibly?

So your not counting the Grand Duchy of Warsaw? I mean I know it was in a dynastic alliance with Saxony, which was under the control of the Federation of the Rhine, but it was basically independent. Or are you referring to a separate Polish state following the Napoleonic Wars?
 
So your not counting the Grand Duchy of Warsaw? I mean I know it was in a dynastic alliance with Saxony, which was under the control of the Federation of the Rhine, but it was basically independent. Or are you referring to a separate Polish state following the Napoleonic Wars?
Wasn't the Grand Duchy of Warsaw pretty much just an autonomous province in Russia? I was referring to a separate Polish state after the Napoleonic Wars.
 
Wasn't the Grand Duchy of Warsaw pretty much just an autonomous province in Russia? I was referring to a separate Polish state after the Napoleonic Wars.
The Grand Duchy of Warsaw was the Napoleonic French-allied state created for Frederick Augustus of Saxony. Congress Poland was the semi-autonomous Polish state that got allocated to Russia after the Congress of Vienna.
 
Kingdom of Poland in Vienna Congress was in theory independent, only in personal union with Russia. If you want Poland fully indepedent, i'm afraid it's not very possible. Powers and especially Russia would be relucant to give Poland more territory than OTL Congress Kingdom/Duchy of Warsaw. And with such borders Poland would be economically dependant either from Russia or Prussia. Your best bet would be Polish-Prussian union (that would make Poles almost half of population in such a Kingdom if it had all Prussian and Austrian partitions) or Polish victory in 1831 which is not ASB but really hard and still would leave Poland in bad position if it wouldn't get sea access through Courland.

The Grand Duchy of Warsaw was the Napoleonic French-allied state created for Frederick Augustus of Saxony. Congress Poland was the semi-autonomous Polish state that got allocated to Russia after the Congress of Vienna.
And it was Duchy of Warsaw , not Grand Duchy.
 
The Grand Duchy of Warsaw was the Napoleonic French-allied state created for Frederick Augustus of Saxony. Congress Poland was the semi-autonomous Polish state that got allocated to Russia after the Congress of Vienna.
Ah, I apologize - I got the two mixed up! Anyway, let's say an independent Polish state is established in 1815 - what happens next?
 
Kingdom of Poland in Vienna Congress was in theory independent, only in personal union with Russia. If you want Poland fully indepedent, i'm afraid it's not very possible. Powers and especially Russia would be relucant to give Poland more territory than OTL Congress Kingdom/Duchy of Warsaw. And with such borders Poland would be economically dependant either from Russia or Prussia. Your best bet would be Polish-Prussian union (that would make Poles almost half of population in such a Kingdom if it had all Prussian and Austrian partitions) or Polish victory in 1831 which is not ASB but really hard and still would leave Poland in bad position if it wouldn't get sea access through Courland.

What about a slightly different Napoleonic-Austrian alliance with butterfly nets? A sufficiently humbled (more than OTL) Prussia ends up ceding Silesia to Austria and Galicia goes to Napoleon's Polish project. Skip forward and you have a Poland that's bigger than OTL, a harder pill for Russia to potentially swallow whole, and a weaker Prussia. I suppose this scenario is also the same as a "screw Prussia in 1815" scenario, but why not have it under Saxon union at this juncture?
 
Wasn't the Grand Duchy of Warsaw pretty much just an autonomous province in Russia? I was referring to a separate Polish state after the Napoleonic Wars.

No, the Duchy of Warsaw (not a "Grand Duchy") was not Russian province. It was an independent state ruled, as was said, by Saxon dynasty. Neither was Kingdom of Poland established in 1815 Russian province: it was, until 1832, an independent state connected with Russian Empire by a personal union.
 
No, the Duchy of Warsaw (not a "Grand Duchy") was not Russian province. It was an independent state ruled, as was said, by Saxon dynasty. Neither was Kingdom of Poland established in 1815 Russian province: it was, until 1832, an independent state connected with Russian Empire by a personal union.
Is there anyway we could get the Kingdom of Poland to remain independent?
 
Is there anyway we could get the Kingdom of Poland to remain independent?
Victory in November Uprising (there small chances), but that wouldn't guarantee that Poland remains independent for long. Fully indepedent state with Kingdom of Poland borders would be economically dependant from bigger and hostile neighbours. Maybe only Austria could be friendly in hope to get Habsburg on another throne.
 
Victory in November Uprising (there small chances), but that wouldn't guarantee that Poland remains independent for long. Fully indepedent state with Kingdom of Poland borders would be economically dependant from bigger and hostile neighbours. Maybe only Austria could be friendly in hope to get Habsburg on another throne.
How could we get a successful November Uprising? Would effects would a Hapsburg King have on Poland?
 
It would take somebody different from Nicholas I on the Russian side and more realistic people on the Polish side.
Or 1812 Russian Campaign is more disastrous for Polish forces participating in it. So in 1830 there are less living veterans of Napoleonic Wars in Poland, that means there are more jobs in administration and army for young frustrates like Wysocki (so they are no frustrated enough to decide to start uprising and die as martyrs).
 
Or 1812 Russian Campaign is more disastrous for Polish forces participating in it. So in 1830 there are less living veterans of Napoleonic Wars in Poland, that means there are more jobs in administration and army for young frustrates like Wysocki (so they are no frustrated enough to decide to start uprising and die as martyrs).
What effects will this have on an independent Polish kingdom?
 
How could we get a successful November Uprising? Would effects would a Hapsburg King have on Poland?
Victory in Polish-Russian war which resulted from it, less leadership changes and no trying to assasinate Constantine, maybe even putting him on the throne. I don't know if we could even get Habsburg King but that surely would be aim of Austrian policy (from PLC times they wanted that throne). And one important thing, independent Poland means putting Prussia into Russian orbit.
 
Really, I think that there was very little doubt that a Kingdom of Poland would be created with the Tsar as King. The only real question was the extent of the Kingdom. (It might have included more of Prussian Poland, with Prussia to be compensated by getting all of Saxony--but both Austria and the UK objected to the idea, thinking it would make Russia too powerful.)

A completely independent Poland would be seen as a source of instability, with Russia, Prussia, and Austria all trying to influence her--as happened before the Partitions.
 
Prussians would exchange Posen for Saxony without hestitation, problem is no one except for Prussia and Russia was interested in such solution (especially Austrians opposed it). It would require war between Russo-Prussian coalition and Austria, France UK, which almost happened BTW.
And November Uprising was not winnable, it could last maybe one more year and Prussian involvement could be needed to crush it, but it was doomed. And even by some miracle Congress Poland get full independence, what next? Without access to the sea and Russian market it would suffocate.
 
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