WI: Independent Kingdom of Granada

[GameBawesome]

What if, the Moriscos Revolt in 1569-1571, was more successful, becoming more large scale, they gain larger support from the Ottomans, and they capture Granada in 1568. The Spanish armies give up because of guerilla warfare, and the conflict draws out, and Kingdom of Granada becomes independent with Aben Humeya, or Muhammad ibn Umayyah, who was suppose of Umayyad descent, becomes King of Granada.

What would religion be like in the Kingdom of Granada?
How long until Spain returns to try to reconquer?
Could this Kingdom survive?
How long would Granada be a vassal of the Ottomans?
Would there be immigration from North Africa?
Could Granada make other allies?

 

[Analytical Engine]

I suspect it wouldn't last all that long. The rest of Spain is right next door, whilst the Ottomans are further away. Spain is going to be able to reinforce more easily that the Ottomans can.

 

[Lusitania]

Spain will never give up and will always claim Granada. As for guerillas that is what the inquisition, jails are for.

The issue is that we are talking about the time the Spain is at its apex in strength and power. It would pour all its New world riches in hiring mercenaries to attack Granada and building a huge navy to keep Ottoman empire away.

 

[Philip]

they gain larger support from the Ottomans,

I am rather skeptical of the Ottomans' ability to project power into the far western Mediterranean at this time. They failed to take Malta. They would lose Tunisia to Spain at this time (although quickly regain it). Invading Iberia is just too far.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

What if, the Moriscos Revolt in 1569-1571, was more successful, becoming more large scale, they gain larger support from the Ottomans, and they capture Granada in 1568. The Spanish armies give up because of guerilla warfare, and the conflict draws out, and Kingdom of Granada becomes independent with Aben Humeya, or Muhammad ibn Umayyah, who was suppose of Umayyad descent, becomes King of Granada.

What would religion be like in the Kingdom of Granada?
How long until Spain returns to try to reconquer?
Could this Kingdom survive?
How long would Granada be a vassal of the Ottomans?
Would there be immigration from North Africa?
Could Granada make other allies?

As soon as Ottoman Naval support ends the neo-Granadan Emirate dies. Spain will do anything to secure that. I am not sure if the English and Dutch are willing to save the Emirate with Naval aid (prevent Spanish blockade).

Net positive for the Dutch because the Spanish will be involved in Iberia. No Armada to England possibly so no or delayed Anglo-Spanish War.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I am rather skeptical of the Ottomans' ability to project power into the far western Mediterranean at this time. They failed to take Malta. They would lose Tunisia to Spain at this time (although quickly regain it). Invading Iberia is just too far.

Malta failure was not because of the failed Power Projection. It is not easy to take a fortress on a small island.

What makes it difficult is the Ottoman participation in Hungary. It required too much resources and troops to keep the Habsburgs out while trying to secure Hungary at the same time. Resources that were no longer available in the West considering the Safavid threat as well. One threat needs to be dealt with before Granada can receive any support at all (success is up to assumptions). Or the support needs to be largely North African Land Force. Morocco and Algiers had the troops. But if they are up to the task against Spain at it's height. They could use the Geography as an advantage. That may help.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I suspect it wouldn't last all that long. The rest of Spain is right next door, whilst the Ottomans are further away. Spain is going to be able to reinforce more easily that the Ottomans can.

I agree on the fact it won't last. Not necessarily because the Ottomans are far away. Sea transportation to Iberia is closer than land transportation to Hungary and the Ottomans did that 150 years long. But as you said: Spain is nearby. They won't give up Granada so easily. Especially if the Ottoman Military, largely Janissary tradition, is changed. The existence and survival of Granada would again depend on North Africa.

What is crucial is that the Dutch Rebels have easier time dealing with Spanish Troops in the Low Lands. Which could mean, Spain might likely get militarily exhausted by the early 17th century (reconquest attempts of the Low Lands, French Forces redirected to the South, defence attempts of Granada).

 

[Lusitania]

I agree on the fact it won't last. Not necessarily because the Ottomans are far away. Sea transportation to Iberia is closer than land transportation to Hungary and the Ottomans did that 150 years long. But as you said: Spain is nearby. They won't give up Granada so easily. Especially if the Ottoman Military, largely Janissary tradition, is changed. The existence and survival of Granada would again depend on North Africa.

What is crucial is that the Dutch Rebels have easier time dealing with Spanish Troops in the Low Lands. Which could mean, Spain might likely get militarily exhausted by the early 17th century (reconquest attempts of the Low Lands, French Forces redirected to the South, defence attempts of Granada).

But if the Spanish had to choose they choose Granada and cut loose Dutch. Also remember that the amount of gold and silver being brought from new world did the Ottoman Empire great harm since it devalued it’s treasury. So while Spain continued mining and bringing more gold and silver to Europe the ottoman’s treasury kept getting poorer.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

But if the Spanish had to choose they choose Granada and cut loose Dutch. Also remember that the amount of gold and silver being brought from new world did the Ottoman Empire great harm since it devalued it’s treasury. So while Spain continued mining and bringing more gold and silver to Europe the ottoman’s treasury kept getting poorer.

^ Granada would be a higher focus to Spain than the Dutch because, its on the Spanish border, and to them, the only thing worse than what they view as "Protestant Heretics" is "Mohammedan Heathens," I always thought the Morisco revolt was doomed to fail. They were too far from the Ottomans, and while Morocco (and the Regency of Algiers) is closer, neither power was capable of challenging Spain, especially a Spain that was the clear-cut great power of Western Europe at the time.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

But if the Spanish had to choose they choose Granada and cut loose Dutch. Also remember that the amount of gold and silver being brought from new world did the Ottoman Empire great harm since it devalued it’s treasury. So while Spain continued mining and bringing more gold and silver to Europe the ottoman’s treasury kept getting poorer.

I never disagreed with that. What I point out was that the Dutch will have an easier time because of it.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

^ Granada would be a higher focus to Spain than the Dutch because, its on the Spanish border, and to them, the only thing worse than what they view as "Protestant Heretics" is "Mohammedan Heathens," I always thought the Morisco revolt was doomed to fail. They were too far from the Ottomans, and while Morocco (and the Regency of Algiers) is closer, neither power was capable of challenging Spain, especially a Spain that was the clear-cut great power of Western Europe at the time.

The Spanish don't see any difference between the Protestants and Muslims. What they see is the difference in Geography. Iberia has a higher value than the Low Lands.

The Morisco revolt was as likely to succeed as a Serb rebellion in Bosnia post-1700. It could but it won't last, with help it may last a bit longer.

 

[Philip]

Malta failure was not because of the failed Power Projection. It is not easy to take a fortress on a small island.

Malta makes it very difficult for the Ottomans to project naval power in the western Med. You are correct that it was a difficult task. However, if they can't take Malta, it presents a major threat to any attempt to invade Iberia.

 

[Alarico Rodríguez]

Malta makes it very difficult for the Ottomans to project naval power in the western Med. You are correct that it was a difficult task. However, if they can't take Malta, it presents a major threat to any attempt to invade Iberia.

I mean, the Spaniards could project as far as Tunis and the Aragonese not only held Athens and Neopatria for a time but also projected power into Anatolia itself with the Almogavares. Why couldn't the Ottomans do the same?

 

[Philip]

I mean, the Spaniards could project as far as Tunis

The Spaniards didn't have to project past a choke point to reach Tunis. In fact, they could rely on Naples and Sicily as a base to attack Tunis.

The Ottomans do not have the same advantage. Malta, and to a lesser extent Sicily and Naples, control the route from Anatolia to Iberia. As long as these bases for Christian navies, sailing a Muslim navy to Iberia is difficult.

Aragonese not only held Athens and Neopatria for a time but also projected power into Anatolia itself with the Almogavares.

They also held Naples and Sicily. From there is not far at all to Greece. Further, there are no Muslim naval bases blocking their path.

 

[Marc]

A casual thought experiment I've had is about a successful Ottoman capture of Malta leading up to taking the Balearic islands.
We don't have a whole lot of data about geopolitical resources of the Balearic's, but it might have been as significant an asset as Grenada back then.
If the Ottoman's manage that, then their power projection into the Western Med would have been quite a challenge, even for the Spanish empire at their peak (it is rather incredible how inept they were, given what they had).

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Malta makes it very difficult for the Ottomans to project naval power in the western Med. You are correct that it was a difficult task. However, if they can't take Malta, it presents a major threat to any attempt to invade Iberia.

Malta was not really necessary. The Ottomans continued to operate West of Malta as well post-1565 (Tunis, Qasr el Quivir, Oran). Malta was not a Spanish base, the Knights alone would not stop the Ottoman fleet. They were Pirates against smaller Muslim Shipping and single ships. But against a larger fleet? No. Hence why there were generally Holy League Fleets. The Ottoman threat on Iberia is largely low due to the Ottomans being in constant wars in Hungary and Persia, making an Iberian Campaign more difficult to redirect resources. If the Spanish Navy was based in Malta then I would have to agree with you. But in this case, Malta was no major threat to large fleets.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

A casual thought experiment I've had is about a successful Ottoman capture of Malta leading up to taking the Balearic islands.
We don't have a whole lot of data about geopolitical resources of the Balearic's, but it might have been as significant an asset as Grenada back then.
If the Ottoman's manage that, then their power projection into the Western Med would have been quite a challenge, even for the Spanish empire at their peak (it is rather incredible how inept they were, given what they had).

Balaeric Islands seems ideal as a Pirate Base. But nothing more. Algiers was closer to Granada and could have been a theoretical base for a Granadan Campaign. And the risk of the Balaerics being blockaded should the Spanish Navy defeat the Ottoman Navy in the Campaign. Then you're stuck with 30-40k troops on islands with no supplies.

 

[Noblesse Oblige]

Malta was not really necessary. The Ottomans continued to operate West of Malta as well post-1565 (Tunis, Qasr el Quivir, Oran). Malta was not a Spanish base, the Knights alone would not stop the Ottoman fleet. They were Pirates against smaller Muslim Shipping and single ships. But against a larger fleet? No. Hence why there were generally Holy League Fleets. The Ottoman threat on Iberia is largely low due to the Ottomans being in constant wars in Hungary and Persia, making an Iberian Campaign more difficult to redirect resources. If the Spanish Navy was based in Malta then I would have to agree with you. But in this case, Malta was no major threat to large fleets.

Balaeric Islands seems ideal as a Pirate Base. But nothing more. Algiers was closer to Granada and could have been a theoretical base for a Granadan Campaign. And the risk of the Balaerics being blockaded should the Spanish Navy defeat the Ottoman Navy in the Campaign. Then you're stuck with 30-40k troops on islands with no supplies.

But considering one of the questions is hypothetical Ottoman support for the Morisco revolt, whether its Malta, the Balearic Isles, Algiers or even Oran, pirate bases are not what is needed for the Moriscos to win, what is needed is to have an Ottoman field army, and unfortunately, the Western Med, no matter how you spin it, is a bridge too far for the Moriscos.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

But considering one of the questions is hypothetical Ottoman support for the Morisco revolt, whether its Malta, the Balearic Isles, Algiers or even Oran, pirate bases are not what is needed for the Moriscos to win, what is needed is to have an Ottoman field army, and unfortunately, the Western Med, no matter how you spin it, is a bridge too far for the Moriscos.

The Ottoman military operated to aid the King of Morocco against the Portuguese and his Moroccan ally. So operating is really not the biggest issue.

Operating from Algiers is not bad or worse. Balaerics was said as it would be a horrible base without a decisive Naval Victory against the Spanish.