WI: Independent Jacobite Ireland?

Let's say that James II's 1689 comeback attempt goes well enough that he's actually able to hold onto Ireland, although he doesn't do well enough to successfully invade mainland Britain. Eventually the conflict is resolved with a treaty confirming Stuart rule in Ireland, in return for William being recognised as King of England and Scotland. (If you think this would be too sensible a move on James' part, let's just assume he dies early and his son's regency council does the actual negotiations.) How would such a change affect the development of world history compared to IOTL?
 
Assuming the state sevies, Jacobite are The line of succession so you don't end up with personal unions with Padua or Bavaria. Also if the state to be 19 centry it might become Centre for Irish Nationalists possibly?
 
Being Stuarts, a successor king would have done something dumb that would have led to war in the 18th century with England like messing about in Scottish affairs or supporting a Catholic plot. A Jacobite Ireland would have been a magnet for every political malcontent in the UK.
 
Assuming the state sevies, Jacobite are The line of succession so you don't end up with personal unions with Padua or Bavaria. Also if the state to be 19 centry it might become Centre for Irish Nationalists possibly?

I doubt Irish nationalism would be a thing in this TL, as Ireland would already be independent and united under the Stuarts, so there would be no grievances for nationalists to agitate about.

Being Stuarts, a successor king would have done something dumb that would have led to war in the 18th century with England like messing about in Scottish affairs or supporting a Catholic plot. A Jacobite Ireland would have been a magnet for every political malcontent in the UK.

Charles I and James II aside, I don't think the Stuarts were notably less smart than any other European dynasty.
 
I think the Stuart’s would just use Ireland as leverage to invade Scotland and or England. They’d have the support of the Bourbons and they would definitely support restoring the Stuart’s to all of their crowns.
 
There was a very good timeline a few years ago that postulated the Jacobites becoming the monarchs of Ireland. Unfortunately it fizzled out :-(
 
Charles I and James II aside, I don't think the Stuarts were notably less smart than any other European dynasty.
The Old Pretender does not give one a sense of ever rising above mediocrity. The Young Pretender had greater charisma but ultimately descended into alcoholism. Henry Benedict, Cardinal York was probably the only capable one of the later Stuarts (if he were to be less religious and not, as is sometimes suggested, gay and founded a family they might be in with more of a chance)
 
The Old Pretender does not give one a sense of ever rising above mediocrity. The Young Pretender had greater charisma but ultimately descended into alcoholism. Henry Benedict, Cardinal York was probably the only capable one of the later Stuarts (if he were to be less religious and not, as is sometimes suggested, gay and founded a family they might be in with more of a chance)

Well, then maybe we could have a POD at the Old Pretender's conception, so he gets at least enough competence genes to keep Ireland independent and satisfactorily well-run.

I think the Stuart’s would just use Ireland as leverage to invade Scotland and or England. They’d have the support of the Bourbons and they would definitely support restoring the Stuart’s to all of their crowns.

I'm sure they'd try to invade England at least once or twice, though after a few failed attempts France (if not the Stuarts themselves) might decide to stop funding failure and tell the Irish monarchs to be happy with what they've got or risk losing French support.

Assuming this does happen, what would relations between Ireland and England be like? Would they be marked by mutual suspicion and fear of future invasions, leading Ireland to look to France for support? Or would the two countries seek to normalise relations, Ireland to remove the threat of invasion from its bigger, wealthier neighbour, and England to stop the Irish willingly acting as a staging-post for every projected invasion going.

You mean this TL? Unfortunately, it was already closed.

Looks interesting, I'll check it out.
 
Assuming this does happen, what would relations between Ireland and England be like? Would they be marked by mutual suspicion and fear of future invasions, leading Ireland to look to France for support? Or would the two countries seek to normalise relations, Ireland to remove the threat of invasion from its bigger, wealthier neighbour, and England to stop the Irish willingly acting as a staging-post for every projected invasion going.
England and Ireland would hate each other and would not normalize relations. Maybe with the Stuart’s on the throne of Ireland Jacobitism would be a force for a bit longer and actually have a better chance at succeeding as they have a troop base and are now able to raise money.
 
A simple PoD:
OTL, William had a narrow escape by getting wounded in shoulder by artillery on 30th of June 1690, day before Boyne.

TTL, he gets killed.

What next?
Mary has been settling down in Great Britain for a year and a half.
But she's a nobody in Republic of United Provinces.
OTL, after 1702, United Provinces became Stadholderless for 45 years.
TTL, United Provinces of 1690 are still interested in a friendly regime in Britain - they had paid for Dutch conquest of England two years before for reasons, which still applied - but they no longer have a suitable person of leader with kinship ties to Britain.

So how about the outcome where William's decapitated army either loses Battle of Boyne or retreats without giving battle, and James clears the Orangist forces out of Ireland... but the balance of forces means James is unable to take back throne of Great Britain from Mary or Anne, and neither can Mary or Anne conquer Ireland again?
 
If the initial outcome of Glorious Revolution is a bloody draw/partition of Britain, how long until Mary or Anne and Westminster Parliament would be willing to make truce/"peace" on terms of loss of Ireland?
 
A simple PoD:
OTL, William had a narrow escape by getting wounded in shoulder by artillery on 30th of June 1690, day before Boyne.

TTL, he gets killed.

What next?
Mary has been settling down in Great Britain for a year and a half.
But she's a nobody in Republic of United Provinces.
OTL, after 1702, United Provinces became Stadholderless for 45 years.
TTL, United Provinces of 1690 are still interested in a friendly regime in Britain - they had paid for Dutch conquest of England two years before for reasons, which still applied - but they no longer have a suitable person of leader with kinship ties to Britain.

So how about the outcome where William's decapitated army either loses Battle of Boyne or retreats without giving battle, and James clears the Orangist forces out of Ireland... but the balance of forces means James is unable to take back throne of Great Britain from Mary or Anne, and neither can Mary or Anne conquer Ireland again?

and when Anne dies? Everything hits the fan.

Maybe one of Anna's children lives to adult hood or Mary manages to have a child that lives

If the initial outcome of Glorious Revolution is a bloody draw/partition of Britain, how long until Mary or Anne and Westminster Parliament would be willing to make truce/"peace" on terms of loss of Ireland?

Once James is in Ireland, he won't be coming back to England anytime soon...and I mean forever. Even if William is dead, or Boyne is a lost, or never happens, James would still show a lack of resolve to it all, and the Kingdom would be overtime with Anti-Catholic and Anti-Freach riots, and the fierce internal opposition against his rule would be enough to stay in Ireland. He's screw if he makes himself King of Ireland, and he screw if he try and take back England.

A Jacobite Ireland would not last long.
 
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