WI Incident at Petrich escalates to war

[gurgu]

How does Bulgaria have an army capacity twice that of Greece, when it had a smaller population? And Bulgaria's regular army was limited to 20 thousand by the treaty of Neuilly and conscription was forbidden. This does not make a victory likely.
It's also very likely that Romania, which shared with Greece the desire to keep Bulgaria down would intervene. Yugoslavia might intervene as well.

in the Greek-Turkish war greeks fielded an army at his maximum of 215k soldiers. Bulgaria in the last war that had participation, ww1 fielded a quarter of the male population: 1200k( 1 million and 2 hundred) soldier.
Assuming that Bulgaria doesn't field the same number of troops, and still is demilitarized it would anyway ignore the Neully treaty if Greece declares war( and no one would have anything to say, it's self defense) and can resist until has the full army( let's say the numbers of the second Balkan war 500k) since it was known as the "Balkans Prussia" while Greek army is still under reforms so it would be on the same level of the Turkish war( they lost even by having superiority). Since math is not an opinion, unless Greece down have ASB they can't win

 

[gurgu]

It is, apart from undoable, also a human catastrophy. What are Bulgarians going to do with all the Greek refugees from Anatolia and Eastern Thrace? Deport them to Greece?

Besides... if Turkey got any Aegean Islabds, which are the islands on the Coast, so no Cyclades, Sporades or so, they may just realign with Greece against Bulgaria (Western Thrace desired by Turkey as it has a large Turkish Population, Salonika desired by Greece). The biggest advantage Greece and Bulgaria has is Ataturk keeping a strict neutralist policy. Can't see him abort that unless Greece is really screwed over with no help.

The war is going to open a can of worms

Bulgaria already lost western Thrace in second Balkan war so if Turkish try to invade her even to take even more ( Burgas ?) France and England would oppose this time since it's all Bulgarian population with Turkish minority.
Also as you said turkey would stay neutral with Ataturk so, no worries

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Bulgaria already lost western Thrace in second Balkan war so if Turkish try to invade her even to take even more ( Burgas ?) France and England would oppose this time since it's all Bulgarian population with Turkish minority.
Also as you said turkey would stay neutral with Ataturk so, no worries

You mean Eastern Thrace? Bulgaria lost Western Thrace in 1918. Turkey won't go anywhere with Ataturks policy. Maybe for the high Turkish and Muslim populated parts, which is only in Western Thrace on the border. The remainder with high Turkish Population is in North East Bulgaria but there are million Bulgarians between it. So... that is out of question. Burgas is already out of question.

France and the UK would try to avoid war in the Balkans in the first place. Italy is a bigger threat to them than Turkey. Not that it means that they wouldn't oppose Turkish attempts on Burgas but that won't happen at all. As I said, only with High Turkish Populated parts and on the border. Otherwise not. And that is a generous statement for a guy like Ataturk and his strict neutralist policy. But if that would be enough... I can't tell.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

in the Greek-Turkish war greeks fielded an army at his maximum of 215k soldiers. Bulgaria in the last war that had participation, ww1 fielded a quarter of the male population: 1200k( 1 million and 2 hundred) soldier.
Assuming that Bulgaria doesn't field the same number of troops, and still is demilitarized it would anyway ignore the Neully treaty if Greece declares war( and no one would have anything to say, it's self defense) and can resist until has the full army( let's say the numbers of the second Balkan war 500k) since it was known as the "Balkans Prussia" while Greek army is still under reforms so it would be on the same level of the Turkish war( they lost even by having superiority). Since math is not an opinion, unless Greece down have ASB they can't win

Dementor did say it that per treaty, Bulgaria is been forced to keep a small army and cannot conscript a certain number of soldiers. If Bulgaria attempt to bypass that, both Romania and Greece will notice that.

 

[gurgu]

Dementor did say it that per treaty, Bulgaria is been forced to keep a small army and cannot conscript a certain number of soldiers. If Bulgaria attempt to bypass that, both Romania and Greece will notice that.

yes, but the point is: if Greece attacks Bulgaria , the latter haves to conscript by force to defend itself. so i'm pretty sure Romania would have nothing to say unless asking to Bulgaria to respect the treaty when war is over.
I'm pretty sure we can agree that if a nation is being invaded is force to conscipt, it won't just sit there and watch it's own capitulation.

 

[Dementor]

in the Greek-Turkish war greeks fielded an army at his maximum of 215k soldiers. Bulgaria in the last war that had participation, ww1 fielded a quarter of the male population: 1200k( 1 million and 2 hundred) soldier.

After seven years of no conscription and considering the casualties incurred in WWI, it would take a substantial time to raise a significant military force. Also of course the army needs to be armed. Bulgaria gave up most of its heavy weapons after WWI and no one is likely to sell them any new ones. Using barely trained and poorly armed soldiers in the terrain of the Greek-Bulgarian border is a recipe for disaster. Especially when the only likely ally is Italy (remember their performance in 1940), while there is at least one country likely to intervene against Bulgaria.

Assuming that Bulgaria doesn't field the same number of troops, and still is demilitarized it would anyway ignore the Neully treaty if Greece declares war( and no one would have anything to say, it's self defense) and can resist until has the full army( let's say the numbers of the second Balkan war 500k) since it was known as the "Balkans Prussia" while Greek army is still under reforms so it would be on the same level of the Turkish war( they lost even by having superiority). Since math is not an opinion, unless Greece down have ASB they can't win

I don't think that Romania would see it this way and the great powers of Europe would not see it like that either if Bulgaria conquers much of northern Greece.
As for the Balkan Prussia, it was a hyperbole even before the Balkan Wars. In 1925, it's close to a fantasy, for the reasons I explained above.

 

[gurgu]

After seven years of no conscription and considering the casualties incurred in WWI, it would take a substantial time to raise a significant military force. Also of course the army needs to be armed. Bulgaria gave up most of its heavy weapons after WWI and no one is likely to sell them any new ones. Using barely trained and poorly armed soldiers in the terrain of the Greek-Bulgarian border is a recipe for disaster. Especially when the only likely ally is Italy (remember their performance in 1940), while there is at least one country likely to intervene against Bulgaria.


I don't think that Romania would see it this way and the great powers of Europe would not see it like that either if Bulgaria conquers much of northern Greece.
As for the Balkan Prussia, it was a hyperbole even before the Balkan Wars. In 1925, it's close to a fantasy, for the reasons I explained above.

still, if Bulgaria is being invaded and is defenseless as you're saying, Benny has the perfect excuse to intervene in help of the Bulgarian victims, and Romania had good relations with the Italians so this would prevent their entry against Bulgaria( and again for what reason) while yugoslavia can't even consider it since it would be basically a double front and had his own problems.
France and England might ask a quick resolve with as less blood spilled so maybe a tiny treaty would be italian occupation of corfu and bulgaria take back alexandropolis area but not salonika.
with this scenario no one looses anything of value:
-Benny gains prestige and maybe no sanctions in future after ethiopia
-Bulgaria has again access to the mediterranean
-Greece looses a poor and and not important trade port which had a little Bulgarian minority( still might rise inside tension because of the wars losts).

My point is simple, if the greeks attacks i can't see them winning but neither if Bulgaria does it.
The winner is who is being attacked.
do you agree?

 

[Dementor]

still, if Bulgaria is being invaded and is defenseless as you're saying, Benny has the perfect excuse to intervene in help of the Bulgarian victims, and Romania had good relations with the Italians so this would prevent their entry against Bulgaria( and again for what reason) while yugoslavia can't even consider it since it would be basically a double front and had his own problems.

Romania would declare that they have no quarel with Italy, but are only enforcing the 1919 peace treaties. And since it was France (the most insistent on those treaties being enforced), not Italy that was Romania's chief ally at the time, they would not certainly not lack for international support.
France and England might ask a quick resolve with as less blood spilled so maybe a tiny treaty would be italian occupation of corfu and bulgaria take back alexandropolis area but not salonika.
[/QUOTE]
The last time Italy occupied Corfu, the whole matter ended with them leaving the island, though with significant compensation. I can't see this being any different, since at this point Italy was not keen on antagonizing France and the UK too much. As for Bulgaria, being a much weaker and a former enemy, they would be lucky to even get a compensation for withdrawing from Western Thrace.

And this is the best case scenario (rather unlikely) requiring Italian intervention, Romanian non-intervention and Bulgaria actually managing to conquer Western Thrace.

My point is simple, if the greeks attacks i can't see them winning but neither if Bulgaria does it.
The winner is who is being attacked.
do you agree?

I'm not sure the two are comparable. The Greek army was much stronger at the time.