WI in 1941 Japan sues for peace with China

Say that in 1941 the Japanese decide after pearl harbour that they must commit everything against the Americans and so sue for peace with Chiang and removing their forces from thier chinese controlled possestions in return for keeping Manchuria as a puppet. Will Chiangs nationalist china accept this deal. I think he would because this gives him the oppurtunity to focus ond estroying Mao Zedong and the commies and the other warlords, if so could the pacific war play out differently now that Japan doesn't have tis resources tied up in China, how different would the pacific war play out and is it even plausable.
 
Japan attempted to controll China - The attack on the US/UK(DEI was only for additional resources and necessary to cancel the US embargo. No war in China = embargo lifted = no pearl...
 
The sole reason for attacking South East Asia was to gain the resources and funds to keep the war in China going, without the war in China you've removed any reason for an attack.

But yes, it would have made a lot of difference to the war, as the Japanese now have an even greater logistical nightmare, especially when Chiang invades Indochina and Manchuria.
 
But yes, it would have made a lot of difference to the war, as the Japanese now have an even greater logistical nightmare, especially when Chiang invades Indochina and Manchuria.

Well, Chiang won't be attacking Manchuria anytime soon, and I don't think he'd attack Indochina at all. He just won a huge victory with Japan leaving, and he desperaterly needs to rebuild his army and prepare for a showdown with the Communists and coopting the warlords.

This will presumably be a planned withdrawl, so Chiang will insist that Japan only leave occupied areas when nationalist troops loyal to him arrive. There is probably sporadic fighting in the areas around Yenan as Communists clash with Japanese troops, but Chiang won't consider that to be provocative, and the Japanese would be more than willing to fight. So most of occupied territory is given over to Chiang, who rules even more land directly after the war than he did beforehand.

He also has the return of the industrial areas in Wuhan, Nanking, and Shanghai, and all that customs revenue.

Given the limits of the new US-Japan war, he's limited in trading partners, so he'll need to reequip his troops with Japanese equipment (assuming the Japanese can spare any)! At least with control over the populated areas again, he'll have all that farmland and raw materials available to buy, so we won't see the ravaging of the Chinese economy that happened IOTL after the Burma Road was cut short.

I expect one to two years of consolidation before Chiang moves against the Communists. With improved economy, an orderly withdrawl, de facto Japanese support, no pressure by Washingtont to reform, and no Soviet aid to the CCP, I give Chiang much better than a 50/50 chance to defeat the Communists completely, and even if not, he'll still deal them a serious blow.

Victory should come just in time for Chiang to re-enter the war against Japan and invade Manchukuo as the US draws its Pacific Campaign to a close. Of course, he'll have to deal with a rather angry US and UK over his initial decision to accept peace with Japan, but I think it'll be something he can handle. In any case, Nationalist China will be much strengthened ITL than IOTL.

Of course, this is all fantasy as I agree with the other posters that by leaving China, you've ended the reason Japan and the US went to war.
 

KGBeast

Banned
By 1941 Japan controlled half of China, almost all financial and economic areas, 2/3rd of the natural resources, and all of the coastline of China, add in the fact Japan won every single battle of the war. I doubt they would go hat in hand to a country tettering on the brink of falling. Plus it is not in Japanese tradition especially in that time dominated by the military junta to accept anything less than total victory. Remember Japan still would not surrender after 5 million deaths and a atomic bomb, it was only after the possiblity of unlimited death from the skys that they relented. I have studied the Sino-Japanese War thoroughly and IMO there was no way for either side to accept anything less than unconditional surrender. With CKS throwing his nation into a war that ultimately cost 20 million of his countrymen ostensibly to maintain Manchuria, I doubt he would willingly cede any land in a peace deal, the Japanese however might accept a negotiated peace where they would receive the northeastern half of China down to Beijing and the Coastline ports but how in the world could CKS accept such humiliating terms and remain in power? With no USA intervention the most likely scenario is the war becomes Japan's Vietnam. Around 1943-44, China was beginning to turn the corner and mass produce war materials shaping the country into total war. I don;t think it will be CKS's forces but Mao's that will decide the war, with guerrilla tactics and occassional debilitating strikes at Japan such as the Hundred Regiment Offensive that would lead to a decision sometime in 1948 or 1949 where a deal is struck that Japan maintains Manchuria but nothing more. Also there is no possible military decision where Japan is defeated by China, only through attrition tactics that sap the will of the combatants can they win.
 
By 1941 Japan controlled half of China, almost all financial and economic areas, 2/3rd of the natural resources, and all of the coastline of China, add in the fact Japan won every single battle of the war. I doubt they would go hat in hand to a country tettering on the brink of falling. Plus it is not in Japanese tradition especially in that time dominated by the military junta to accept anything less than total victory. Remember Japan still would not surrender after 5 million deaths and a atomic bomb, it was only after the possiblity of unlimited death from the skys that they relented. I have studied the Sino-Japanese War thoroughly and IMO there was no way for either side to accept anything less than unconditional surrender. With CKS throwing his nation into a war that ultimately cost 20 million of his countrymen ostensibly to maintain Manchuria, I doubt he would willingly cede any land in a peace deal, the Japanese however might accept a negotiated peace where they would receive the northeastern half of China down to Beijing and the Coastline ports but how in the world could CKS accept such humiliating terms and remain in power? With no USA intervention the most likely scenario is the war becomes Japan's Vietnam. Around 1943-44, China was beginning to turn the corner and mass produce war materials shaping the country into total war. I don;t think it will be CKS's forces but Mao's that will decide the war, with guerrilla tactics and occassional debilitating strikes at Japan such as the Hundred Regiment Offensive that would lead to a decision sometime in 1948 or 1949 where a deal is struck that Japan maintains Manchuria but nothing more. Also there is no possible military decision where Japan is defeated by China, only through attrition tactics that sap the will of the combatants can they win.
I see then is thier any way for the Japanese to win an unconditional victory before the attack on Pearl harbor? Or even the Japanese to be beatean by a chinese counterattack and retreat before pearl harbour?
 
There is one, very long shot chance. War in Europe fizzles and Japan cannot hope to use this as a distraction for their own causes. IIRC, prior to Battle of France and its swift fall, Japanese contemplated withdrawal from China proper. This, of course changed when France withdraw from war and handed IC to Japan, allowing partial blockade of China. If you prevent this, they might just retreat. Or at least try. Japanese military, might however have different plans and Kwantung army might not listen to the civilian authorities. What happens then is anybody's guess, though I strongly suspect civilians will cover up the military and proceed as if it was national policy.

Anyway, in case of any sort of peaceful solution in China, War in Pacific is butterflied away. In case of Japanese dramatic and decisive defeat in China, ditto. Virtually the only outcome with war is Japan being bogged in China. And this outcome is unfortunately one that is most probable.
 
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