WI: Imperial Russia made it to the end of WW1?

If the Russian Revolutions of 1917 were some how avoided and Russia continued to participate in the First World War how would this have affected the course of the war? Would the war have ended earlier or later than in OTL?

(I'm assuming that the war would still end in the defeat of the Central Powers.)

Also how would Russia's participation in the Treaty of Versailles have affected the final terms of the treaty? Would they have made any territorial demands and would those demands be accepted by the other victors of the war (mainly the UK, France and the USA)?

Finally how would this situation affect the Second World War? Would it end up happening in this ATL or not?

Sorry for having so many questions! Feel free to answer as many as you like :)
 
Some answers

If the Russian Revolutions of 1917 were some how avoided and Russia continued to participate in the First World War how would this have affected the course of the war?
Before that question can be answered, one must establish how the Russian Revolutions were avoided. IMHO, given the OTL course of the war for Russia up to 1917, the February Revolution at least was overdetermined. For the Revolution not to happen, conditions must be different. Therefore, we have to look at the consequences not just of the survival of the Empire, but of the other consequences of the different event which caused the survival.
Would the war have ended earlier or later than in OTL?
Earlier, almost certainly. The defeat of Russia was all that gave Germany any hope at all of victory in 1918. By then, the Germans knew that "the Yanks are coming"; that Turkey was about to collapse; that Austria-Hungary was very rocky (Emperor Charles was already seeking a separate peace); that Germany was near to running out of food. (OTL the Germans hoped to loot the conquered east for enough food to last out the war.) Would the Germans bow to reality before collapse was imminent? I don't know, but it seems likely.
(I'm assuming that the war would still end in the defeat of the Central Powers.)
That's pretty certain.
Also how would Russia's participation in the Treaty of Versailles have affected the final terms of the treaty?
Lots of things change besides that. If Germany sues for peace in early 1918, it's possible that they may get better terms. It won't be Versailles as in OTL regardless.
Would they have made any territorial demands...
Russia would almost certainly expect to gain territory in Armenia, where the Russian Army had driven the Turks back. It's possible the Russians would propose the creation of an expanded Kingdom of Poland under Russian protection; i.e. the OTL Kingdom of Poland, plus Galicia and Posen.
and would those demands be accepted by the other victors of the war (mainly the UK, France and the USA)?
If Russia survives while Germany and Austria fall, Russia can take what it wants in the east, pretty much. The other Allies don't have great leverage to force Russia to disgorge.
Finally how would this situation affect the Second World War? Would it end up happening in this ATL or not?
Almost certainly not. Germans realized that WW I was a disaster for Germany, and had no desire to try that again. Even believers in dolchstoss did not really think that Germany could have triumphed gloriously. If Russia had never been defeated, that delusion would be completely impossible. And without the threat of Communism to spook the wealthy and middle class, it's unlikely that Hitler could ever come to power.
Sorry for having so many questions! Feel free to answer as many as you like :)
 
Thanks for answering so many of my questions :)

What are your thoughts on the effect this will have on the entry of the USA into the war? Would an early defeat for the Central Powers make their involvement unnecessary?

Even if they are still involved this ATL would have a huge impact on how America develops as a nation. Without the Second World War and subsequent rivalry with the Soviet Union would the US even be a super power in this scenario?

I suppose another issue with avoiding the Second World War would be the continued power of the British, French and Russian empires, that could make for some intersting butterflies...
 
Of course if the Entente won earlier in the war, it would end earlier. America entering depends on when the war ends.
 
Germany would be in a two front war as the US entered. The war ends sooner. Russia is angry and wants a bitter peace. The oppose an independent Poland and probably some other of Wilson's ideas.
 
Remove Colonel Max Hoffman from the build up to Tannenberg, without his personal knowledge that the commanders of the two Russian armies hated each other and would not come to each others aid maybe the Germans either don't engage or perhaps suffer a tactical defeat, that might bolster Russian morale and he wouldn't be there to press for the German offensive if the February Revolution still happens
 
What would be interesting is basically 'Russia just about hangs on till the end of the war, then collapses once peace is assured.
 
giorgi rasputin succeeds in convincing the tsar to make seperate peace with the central powers.

there's going to be a revolution, but lacking lenin, a smaller, more manageable one.
 
Germany would be in a two front war as the US entered. The war ends sooner. Russia is angry and wants a bitter peace. The oppose an independent Poland and probably some other of Wilson's ideas.

Germany was still in a two front war when the US declared war. Brest-Litovsk was almost a year later, though actually active fighting had sort of ended some months before it in the east, mainly because the Germans had nobody to fight against anymore.
The last German breakthroughs of late 1917-early 1918 are impossible here. The war might end before the American troops come in swarms, and then, whatever Wilson thinks about Poland becomes utterly irrelevant.
More to the point, any working Russia on the winning side makes Poland very unlikely to survive anyway.
 
Effects on the US

Thanks for answering so many of my questions :)
What are your thoughts on the effect this will have on the entry of the USA into the war? Would an early defeat for the Central Powers make their involvement unnecessary?


The U.S. declared war on Germany only a few weeks after the February Revolution; and while the Revolution was obviously a sign of Russian weakness and a portent of Russian collapse, that collapse didn't happen for many more months.

So the absence of the Revolution would not affect formal U.S. entry into the war.

It might affect U.S. participation considerably. Suppose that the German leadership "sees the handwriting on the wall" by the end of 1917 and sues for peace and the war ends in March 1918; then the U.S. will not have had any significant participation in the fighting. OTL, no U.S. troops saw action until June 1918.

The knock-ons from this would be considerable. The impact of the war on the U.S. would be greatly diminished. OTL the entire national economy was disrupted and the Federal government assumed powers not matched even during WW II. The triviai amount of casualties would probably reduce American hostiiity to future participation in "foreign wars".

The U.S. would have far less influence on the peace settlement. Wilson announced the "Fourteen Points" in January 1918, but if Germany was already seeking peace, and did so by March, ISTM that Wilson's "Points" would be less influential.

Another knock-on is that Wilson and the Democrats could run in 1918 with the cachet of victory and without the burden of the disappointment of OTL Versailles; i.e. the shine hasn't worn off yet. OTOH victory was clearly at hand in OTL 1918 when the Democrats lost both Houses of Congress; and the war was not a "partisan" issue.

There is some argument that the enactment of Prohibition succeeded when it did OTL because it was viewed as a useful wartime discipline; the government was reforming and regulating everything then, so why not this measure? If the war ends early, does the amendment fail? OTL, the 18th Amendment was proposed by Congress in December 1917. (Support was almost equal between the parties.) 14 states ratified before Armistice Day; 1 in November; and then 29 in January 1919.

Obviously, the war was over by then - but the atmosphere was still wartime in most respects. I think eight more months since the end of a much shorter war makes a big difference.

So there's a possible impact.
 
Aeternitas

Presuming Russia doesn't collapse into disorder in the next couple of years then there are a huge number of butterflies.

a) For one thing Americas position at any peace treaty would be further weakened because the alliance would have won the war without any real military support by the US and has Russia as an ally to the east. As such its likely to be a more traditional European peace treaty. Which is likely to give greater stability to Europe than OTL. Also, given the security of having Russia to the east you might even see a more moderate peace with Germany as a result.

b) There is the potential for a more stable economic situation as well. The biggest single set of war debts were from Russia to Britain. With the chance that Russia would repay some of this debt Britain's position is better and hence its more able to help restore something like the pre-war system of trade. At the least this and an earlier end to the war will reduce the debts of all powers, especially to the US, which will make the fiscal situation far less unbalanced. You could well get Britain still suggesting a cancelling of all war debts, possibly with an accompanying reduction in reparations from Germany, which might gain more support.

c) One potential problem with the war ending earlier is that the naval race between the US and Japan, which Britain was getting dragged into might continue with a lot more tension between the main powers and ships constructed. This would depend on how quickly the war ends.

d) If Russia stays stable over the next decade it could see huge development. Much has happened during the war and with its capacity for raw industrial output as well as raw materials and foodstuffs and without the civil war or the communist atrocities this might see it actually becoming a giant that the rest of Europe is increasingly worried about.

America will still become the dominant economic power of the war and probably the largest financial power. Its emergence as a military super-power, other than in naval terms is likely to be delayed further than in OTL. That will occur inevitably unless somehow it goes totally off the rails but that is pretty unlikely.

Anyway, a few ideas that hopefully you will find useful.

Steve
 
There is some argument that the enactment of Prohibition succeeded when it did OTL because it was viewed as a useful wartime discipline; the government was reforming and regulating everything then, so why not this measure? If the war ends early, does the amendment fail? OTL, the 18th Amendment was proposed by Congress in December 1917. (Support was almost equal between the parties.) 14 states ratified before Armistice Day; 1 in November; and then 29 in January 1919.

There was also the issue of congressional reapportionment. The dry regions of American tended to be both more rural, and more WASP'ish (the american south, west, and rural midwest) This was in contrast to the wet cities and industrial states which were ladden with both immigrants and catholics. The dry section of America was losing the demographic game, so they wanted to pass prohibition while they still had an edge. Even still, they held onto power longer than they should have by refusing to reapportion after the 1920 census.
 
Development of Technology

Hmmm, those are all very interesting points. What do you guys think about how this will affect the development of technology in this ATL? I mean without the Second World War and the cold war it would be highly unlikely for certain areas to develop as quickly as they did in the OTL. For example the space race probably wouldn't happen in the same way, if it even happened at all, and the development of nuclear weapons would be different too wouldn't it? The basics of nuclear energy were largely understood around the early 1900's but without WW2 forming an incentive to pursue those weapons things would have turned out differently right?

Also even if post war Europe ends up with more stability than it did in the OTL what conflicts do you think would likely result from all of the border changes enforced by the victors? Though a second world war seems unlikely at this point are there any other thoughts on the hostilities that might arise in future?
 
Russia on the winning side makes Poland very unlikely to survive anyway.
Independent Poland-yes, but Poland is very likely to become russian vassal state like communist Poland was to USSR (Russians may even try to move polish borders west to make Poles forever afraid of german revenge-Sazanov planned something like this)
 
Independent Poland-yes, but Poland is very likely to become russian vassal state like communist Poland was to USSR (Russians may even try to move polish borders west to make Poles forever afraid of german revenge-Sazanov planned something like this)

The difference here is that Poland is not a separate state but a part of Russia and Russification policies would remain in place.

If Russia made it to the end of the war in one piece it would have gotten Posen, Galicia, 'Wilsonian' Armenia, Constantinople and the straits, plus an sphere of influence in the Balkans (with Great Serbia/Yugoslavia and Great Romania at the very least, maybe Czechoslovakia too). I have no doubts that Russia would quickly replace Germany as the monster in France and especially Britain's nightmares. Expect Germany and rump Austria, Hungary and Turkey to gravitate towards the west and you have the recipe for the next world conflict.
 
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