WI: Imperial Russia Kept Fighting Japan

TFSmith121

Banned
Seems awfully sanguine...

Not at all. The Japanese economy was fully extended and could not afford to maintain its full military presence on the continent for much longer. Meanwhile, the Russian army was being gradually reinforced and simply needed "do nothing" or alternatively "not lose badly" to secure the win. Granted, not an attractive way to win a war, but a win never-the-less.

Seems awfully sanguine... how many battlefield victories did the Russians manage in 1904-05?

There's also the minor problem of this:

mid.jpg


Best,
 

BooNZ

Banned
It was a stupid war for Russia to get involved with. The Russians instead should have in the late 1890s used their position in Port Arthur and Manchuria to wedge against the upcoming 1902 Anglo-Japan alliance. Offer to cede the territory to Japan in exchange for a trade deal or other non-military agreement.

Japan would still want to buy its ships from British yards as they offer the best ships in the world, but the Russians have territory to trade. Smart diplomacy could hinder a degree Britain's relations with Japan. By 1900 Japan was catching up with Imperial Russia in terms of industrialization. These two nations should have been trading, not fighting.

So, in 1899, Russia cedes Port Arthur to Japan, and together they fund an expanded merchant port with rail connections to Russia and Europe. Japan then trades goods via Russia, and Russia can abandon anything beyond a coastal navy.

I agree strongly in principle, but I think more modest appeasement would have done the job e.g. Japan gets Korea and Russia gets Manchuria. Formal recognition of those respective positions would antagonise US and British interests, so would need to be kept quiet initially. I think Russia would want to maintain its warm water port(s) but could probably limit its Asian naval presence if on good terms with Japan. OTL I understand overt racism and Russian adventurism impacted negatively on the Russian/ Japanese relationship and made such an understanding unlikely.

As an aside, I doubt if any county was "catching up" with Russia in relation to industrialisation around 1900
 

BooNZ

Banned
Seems awfully sanguine... how many battlefield victories did the Russians manage in 1904-05?

There's also the minor problem of this:

Best,

About the same number as the French managed in either World War? Yet they were victorious...

Not a minor problem at all, which is why the Russians chose to end the war. The Russians could have continued the war, while the Japanese economy could not have sustained war for much longer.
 
Russia most probably could have continued the war, It forces in Manchuria were far larger than the Japanese. It also had a far larger military reserve so eventually the Russian steamroller would crush the Japanese.
Having said that the Russia that emerged from the war would be quite different. The Duma would have emerged as a real power and the Czar would have lost a lot of his. It would be very likely that Imperial Russia would be less likely to join an alliance with France. This would probably mean no first world war.
 
The alliance with France was over 10 years old and going strong (Russian navy used French ports to resupply on the way to Tsushima and France would have entered the war if another nation came to Japan's help). What this makes less likely is Britain allying with France and Russia, if it looks that Russia is strong and expanding in Asia (*looks*, as pointed, the army won't get some of the needed reforms it got between 1905 and 1914).

Austria might not feel confident to fully annex Bosnia with a Russia perceived as strong. Make Italy not go to war with Turkey and the likelihood of a damn thing happening in the Balkans decreases considerably.
 
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