WI: Imperial Japan never attacks China?

Let's say, for whatever reason, Imperial Japan never invades China, but still goes to war with the Allies.

How does this affect the Pacific War?
 
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That's kind of putting Descartes before the horse there - the Pacific conflict emerged out of the USA embargoing Japan for attacking Western interests in China (and bullying China too). Without the 1937 war, the Western Powers would probably have left Japan and Manchukuo alone.
 
Reclaiming Manchuria from the Japanese was a core policy of the Nationalist party. Japan may find itself at war with China anyway, instigated by a overconfident Chinese government. Perhaps as early as 193 or 1940.

Leaving that aside there is this very important factor.

That's kind of putting Descartes before the horse there - the Pacific conflict emerged out of the USA embargoing Japan for attacking Western interests in China (and bullying China too). Without the 1937 war, the Western Powers would probably have left Japan and Manchukuo alone.

Other than China, tensions between the US and Japan or Japan & Europe were never high enough to justify war. The large scale investment of US & British banks in Japans industry and government loans were also a disinsentive for war. Relatively small Japan was as a important trading partner with the US as China & its huge population.
 
Reclaiming Manchuria from the Japanese was a core policy of the Nationalist party. Japan may find itself at war with China anyway, instigated by a overconfident Chinese government. Perhaps as early as 193 or 1940.

U.S. policy under this scenario?

Effects on German policy would also be interesting.

from my (limited) reading on the subject, without Japan being aggressor and brutality after fall of Nanking, the KMT regime does not have same level of support in U.S.

from German perspective China might seem the better ally (and they were always the better trading partner.)

AND a non-pariah Japan has little use for Axis?
 
from my (limited) reading on the subject, without Japan being aggressor and brutality after fall of Nanking, the KMT regime does not have same level of support in U.S.

from German perspective China might seem the better ally (and they were always the better trading partner.)

AND a non-pariah Japan has little use for Axis?

Yeah, I'd guess the Sino-German friendship would continue, with Berlin and Nanjing keeping their close economic ties and Falkenhausen continuing his work with the Chinese army (IOTL he was recalled in 1938 due to a shift in German foreign policy towards a more pro-Japanese stance). With better training the Nationalist forces might be able to put up a better fight first against the Japanese (once the conflict does start over Manchuria) and later against the Communists.

But when it comes to that aforementioned Second Sino-Japanese War... I could honestly very well see it as a regional conflict in parallel with WW2 instead of being considered to be a genuine part of it. Japan's relationship with its neighbors weren't too good even before Japan attacked the Chinese and while I can see Germany giving overt support to China, I don't see "the West" propping up the militarist regime in Japan against it (heck, most countries, especially not the western ones, recognized Manchukuo). After all China doesn't pose an immediate threat to the holdings of Western powers in the region like Japan did IOTL due to their needs for resources.
 
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raharris1973

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That's kind of putting Descartes before the horse there - the Pacific conflict emerged out of the USA embargoing Japan for attacking Western interests in China (and bullying China too). Without the 1937 war, the Western Powers would probably have left Japan and Manchukuo alone.

Well, this skips over alot of intermediate questions to simply say, no 1937 = no Pacific War, for certain.

The two most important intermediate questions are:

a) assuming it is not butterflied away, how does Japan react to the fall of western Europe to Hitler and the obvious opportunity to easily occupy French Indochina (which they did before the oil embargo, not after), if not other European colonies

b) given (a) above, do the western powers embargo Japan?

On the one hand, they have not had years of getting morally outraged over a hot war in China from 1937 to 1940. So they may not react as harshly to Japanese moves to occupy French Indochina.

On the other hand, Japanese occupation of French Indochina in 1940 or 1941 (or threats to the USSR for that matter) could prompt a western oil embargo/asset freeze, for strategic reasons. In occupying French Indochina, Japan would be signalling a possible intention to scavenge other western colonies and generally profit from the distress of Germany's enemies. With the US determined to hold onto its empire, and the US and UK both wanting successful British and Soviet victory over the Nazis, they may well decide to try to restrain Japan with economic weapons.

An embargo on Japan, if it is not negotiated away, puts you right back to the situation for Tokyo of submitting to western demands or plunging to capture the resources of the DEI, and therefore needing to take Singapore and Manila etc.

---there's plenty of other intermediate questions to consider between 1937 and 1940 in terms of possible knock-ons from there being no China war getting started:

1) With less need to support Chinese resistance from 37-39, do the Soviets up the ante in Spain?

2) What is Japan doing in the meantime- what forces is it investing in? Do they patch up relations with the anti-Hitler coalition or do they continue a policy of greater friendliness with Germany and Italy (dating to the anti-comintern pact? HMaybe they would even send some volunteers to Spain alongside the Italians and Germans (I doubt it, but you never know, especially if there's any trade opportunity involved.) How do they balance Army and Navy modernization?

3) Is the Japanese Kwangtung army still having summer battles with the Soviets from 1937-1939? Maybe they do because the Japanese want to enforce a certain claim on the Manchukuo-Mongolia border. But maybe they don't, their probing actions may have been related to testing Soviet reactions and strength in the context of the China war (ie, how much of a threat do we face up north, and therefore how many Kwangtung divisions can we afford to move south of the Great Wall.

4) What is China doing? I personally doubt it would start a war with Japan in 1937 to 1940, but Chiang had been forced to call off his offensive against the communists as early as 1936 to form a United Front.
 
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