WI Imperial Japan had attacked NEIs only?

We've just had two interesting threads on possible alternate Japanese actions in 1941. But the question that puzzles me is what if after FDRs' embargo of Japan after their occupation of Indochina that Japan directs their armed forces to grab the Dutch colonies only? And maybe Brunei too (was Brunei British at that time? If so forget Brunei). For the oil of course and the other resources.

What immediate steps would the UK and the US do? I'd think that the British even after this outrage would not want to go to war with Japan as they have their hands full with the Nazi war. But what would the Americans do in the short term regarding the politics of the time? Maybe just hunker down and bide their time while building up the Navy and Army for the inevitable clash?

Yes it is a crazy-ass risk for the Japanese leaving their sea lanes vulnerable but what that be even more risky then the Japanese miscalculation that was OTL Pacific War? I'm looking forward to the comments from the Pacific War experts. You know who you are.
 
UK was already Dutch ally. Attack on the Dutch means war with UK. If Japan does it, without any preparation to meet the British, they will have PoW and Repulse set loose in South China Sea sinking their convoys immediately.

The Japanese quite correctly surmised that they would have to attack the British too. They perceived that an attack on the British means US is automatically involved. IMHO, they are correct. May not be automatic, but US involvement would surely follow shortly.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Not quite "immediately", I'd say - but very soon. Once fortified positions set up and all that - basically the British delay long enough to dig in and that's about it.
 
It buys the Japanese time, that's for sure, as a couple British battleships without US assistance will quickly be sunk by the Japanese Navy, which is superior in the region.

Pretty much, anything is better for the Japanese than OTL. However, it is ultimately meaningless, as the Japanese merchant marine did not have the capacity to even bring all the crude oil back to be refined.
 
Prince of Wales and Repulse against the Kido Butai and land based air? I'm thinking that despite the alliance between the British and the Dutch the British are not going to war with Japan until they can move more RN ships and other forces to the Far East. And when can they do that considering the war situation in the Atlantic, North Africa and the Mediterranean in 1941? The British haven't been attacked directly by Japan and they can't spare the forces unless they're desperately needed. What would the Americans do on their own?
 
It buys the Japanese time, that's for sure, as a couple British battleships without US assistance will quickly be sunk by the Japanese Navy, which is superior in the region.

Well, the Japanese could not be everywhere at the same time. And finding two ships at sea is pretty hard. Those two ships could defeat any two Japanese battleships. And I think the Japanese would have to leave pretty large portion of their fleet to watch over the Americans. Provided they can dedicate their entire fleet, you are right of course. Although, realistically, they will probably not be able to do that.
 
I just don't see the British putting two really expensive battleships on a mission that is not suicidal as long as the Japanese don't take them that seriously. Unless the US decided to move a great deal of their fleet to the Philippines, which would obviously be an act of provocation, the Japanese would be able to dedicate a great deal of their fleet to dealing with the British.

Can the British ships evade destruction? Sure, German pocket battleships were able to for some time against a superior foe...but most of them end up sunk.
 
Unless the US decided to move a great deal of their fleet to the Philippines, which would obviously be an act of provocation, the Japanese would be able to dedicate a great deal of their fleet to dealing with the British.

Yes, but the US will place their fleet to PI. If they do not, they will show that their sanctions and their word mean nothing.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I just don't see the British putting two really expensive battleships on a mission that is not suicidal as long as the Japanese don't take them that seriously. Unless the US decided to move a great deal of their fleet to the Philippines, which would obviously be an act of provocation, the Japanese would be able to dedicate a great deal of their fleet to dealing with the British.

Can the British ships evade destruction? Sure, German pocket battleships were able to for some time against a superior foe...but most of them end up sunk.
What about two really expensive battleships and a carrier or two? And some cruisers and destroyers, and a lot of submarines based out of Singapore?
 

nbcman

Donor
Yes, but the US will place their fleet to PI. If they do not, they will show that their sanctions and their word mean nothing.

The facilities in PI couldn't support the US Pacific Fleet nor cover it with Army or Marine Aviation units. The US could increase the size of the Asiatic Fleet somewhat from OTL and maybe have some fleet elements on longer range patrols from other bases, but PH is the base where the majority of the US Pacific Fleet will have to be based.
 
The facilities in PI couldn't support the US Pacific Fleet nor cover it with Army or Marine Aviation units. The US could increase the size of the Asiatic Fleet somewhat from OTL and maybe have some fleet elements on longer range patrols from other bases, but PH is the base where the majority of the US Pacific Fleet will have to be based.

Probably why there was nothing about moving the Pacific fleet to PI in Kimmels operational plan for war (WPP-46) or the Rainbow plans ;)
 
Royal Dutch Shell Oil was the operator according to Combined Fleet.

And in 1941 what half of the ownership of RDS was in charge ? the Dutch or GB ;).

I just don't think that the DEI was really separable from the extended GB empire even if military/civilian command in the region had not yet got round to acknowledging it.
 
Were Japan to attack the Netherlands East Indies, a British declaration of war would have followed quickly.

Churchill would almost certainly have tried to elicit a U.S. declaration of war, too, from Roosevelt. That, however, is considerably less likely; isolationist sentiment remained considerable in Congress, and there would be little enthusiasm for defending a European colonial possession.

The problem, however, is what the U.S. *would* do instead. Roosevelt would sever diplomatic relations and do everything else short of war; and he would work feverishly to beef up U.S. forces and facilities in the Philippines, Guam, and Wake, put all U.S. forces on full war footing, and accelerate military acquisitions at full throttle. And when the U.S. *did* come in later in 1942, Japan will be facing a a U.S. sitting (in the P.I.) right astride its SLOCs to its oil in SE Asia, and very difficult and expensive to neutralize.
 
...

The problem, however, is what the U.S. *would* do instead. Roosevelt would sever diplomatic relations and do everything else short of war;

I'm fairly certain he would have declared a overly large "Exclusion Zone" or nuetrality zone around the PI. Large enough the japanese would have trouble avoiding it, and enough to enrage a number of military officers. All this guaarantees shooting between US & Japanese combatants very quickly.


... and he would work feverishly to beef up U.S. forces and facilities in the Philippines, Guam, and Wake, put all U.S. forces on full war footing, and accelerate military acquisitions at full throttle. And when the U.S. *did* come in later in 1942, Japan will be facing a a U.S. sitting (in the P.I.) right astride its SLOCs to its oil in SE Asia, and very difficult and expensive to neutralize.

Five hundred plus aircraft, a functional air defense system, 20+ S boats with the older reliable torpedos, key parts of the logistics problems taken care of, peace time attitudes fading rapidly. The list goes on & on. Delaying the US entry only a couple weeks waives away much of Japans advantage of 7 December & suprise.
 
Were Japan to attack the Netherlands East Indies, a British declaration of war would have followed quickly.

Churchill would almost certainly have tried to elicit a U.S. declaration of war, too, from Roosevelt. That, however, is considerably less likely; isolationist sentiment remained considerable in Congress, and there would be little enthusiasm for defending a European colonial possession.

The problem, however, is what the U.S. *would* do instead. Roosevelt would sever diplomatic relations and do everything else short of war; and he would work feverishly to beef up U.S. forces and facilities in the Philippines, Guam, and Wake, put all U.S. forces on full war footing, and accelerate military acquisitions at full throttle. And when the U.S. *did* come in later in 1942, Japan will be facing a a U.S. sitting (in the P.I.) right astride its SLOCs to its oil in SE Asia, and very difficult and expensive to neutralize.

I don't agree that the UK would have declared war on Imperial Japan unless it was a joint declaration with the Americans which might not be forthcoming IMHO. However I agree with your surmise of FDR severing diplomatic ties with Japan followed by a total crash build-up of military and naval strength.

How much arms would have been needed to make the Philippines secure from invasion and how long would the US need to do that without LL siphoning off war materials? But such a response would have had a detrimental effect on Lend-Lease to Great Britain and the USSR as more war production would have been supplied to American forces.
 
If the Japanese make no plans to hit the British, they've just given the RN submarines a free hand in sinking their merchant marine.
 
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were they actual Allies, or just co-belligerents in 1940 against Germany?
They had been Neutral, and no alliance before the Japanese attack on both of them. I believe the 1940 Anglo-Dutch agreement was for Europe only, even though the Dutch kept asking for Asian agreement on defense,but Churchill demurred.
https://books.google.com/books?id=_tPFBQAAQBAJ&pg=PA56
They may or may not have been obligated to legally, but as a practical matter, they would almost certainly have to. Letting the major surviving Free Dutch territory be overrun by a German ally without a fight would be a huge propaganda disaster. In addition, they will almost certainly underestimate the threat posed by the Japanese as OTL.

Besides, the Japanese had spent the past decade doing almost everything possible to tick off the Americans; unifying Japan and Germany in the public mind is likely to be helpful in speeding up American entry into the war, something Churchill will definitely be mindful of.
 
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