WI Imperial Germany wins WW1 in 1918

I don't know if this one's been done yet but how about this:

Russia falls to the Mensheviks in February, 1917 under the leadership of Alexander Kerensky. The Czar is deposed and the new Provisional Government pulls Russia out of the War, much to the dismay of the Allied Powers. With the US not yet in the War and Russia out, Germany moves its troops from the East to the Western Front and prepares to launch the Kaiserschlacht Offensive in the mid-summer of 1917.

Does the massive Deutsches Reichsheer sweep the Allies from the Front?

Do they storm into Paris?

What can the British do if France falls?

 
While I always love a good Kaiserwank, I just don't see this happening. The Mensheviks beating the Bolsheviks is just unreal, as their name explains, they are the minority. By 1917, I don't think the Germany army has the supplies or man power to push through anymore than they did. The US being there just ruins their chances even more. :(
 
While I always love a good Kaiserwank, I just don't see this happening. The Mensheviks beating the Bolsheviks is just unreal, as their name explains, they are the minority. By 1917, I don't think the Germany army has the supplies or man power to push through anymore than they did. The US being there just ruins their chances even more. :(

They could break through in the summer Offensive. They were in a hair's breadth of Paris. Whether or not they could negotiate terms after this, however, is undertain.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Russia falls to the Mensheviks in February, 1917 under the leadership of Alexander Kerensky.

I think you're confusing the Mensheviks with the Provisional Government.

I also don't see the Germans being able to transfer so many men so quickly, and launching an offensive in the summer. Such a plan would require a long period of detailed logistical work, and the Russian Revolution of 1917 took pretty much everyone by surprise. Besides, there were the Italians to be reckoned with, too, as this was pre-Caporetto.
 
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I think you're confusing the Mensheviks with the Provisional Government.

I also don't see the Germans being able to transfer so many men so quickly, and launching an offensive in the summer. Such a plan would require a long period of detailed logistical work, and the Russian Revolution of 1917 took pretty much everyone by surprise. Besides, there were the Italians to be reckoned with, too, as this was pre-Caporetto.


But of course the knock-on effects could still be significant.

In theory, the Nivelle Offensive could be called off and France just stand on the defensive, but I doubt it. My guess is that Nivelle will argue for the need to get the "knock out blow" in before German reinforcements can arrive from the East, and that he will get his way. It will of course be an even bigger fiasco than OTL, if that be possible.

Arras and Vimy are likely to be much heavier going with additional German forces available. So is Third Ypres if it still goes ahead as, (given British concerns about the u-boat war, which is at its worst in Spring 1917) it probably will.

$64,000 question, of course, is whether US intervention is butterflied away. March 1917 is extremely late in the day, but if Russia has just quit the war (or is obviously in process of doing so) President Wilson may decide that it is now too late to intervene, since the decisive battle will be fought long before the US can do so effectively. He may just renew his "Peace without victory" line in the hope that the Allies will now be more receptive to it. In the aftermath of the Zimmermann Telegram he would be attacked for this, and several of his Cabinet would probably resign, but he was more than capable of ignoring dissent when he wanted to.

If _Michael _ still happens, it is probably brought forward a few months, perhaps from March to December. Iirc, the Winter of 1917/18 was a very cold one, so there won't be any mud at that time - the ground will be frozen hard. Could make the advance easier.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Donor
1. Kerensky was a Socialist Revolutionary, not a Menshevik.:rolleyes: And the Mensheviks taking power alone is ASB. A provisional government pulling out of the war is possible, but you need a good reason for it. Remember the Provisional Government fought on OTL even when things looked dire, and Lenin would preferably had fought on himself, if he had had any realistic chance to do it.
2. Hmm, this would probably mean no need for unrestricted submarine warfare, which would butterfly away the American intervention.
3. A massive German invasion would be a bitch, especially with the French tendency for mutinies at the time. But do not underestimate the French. If they can keep their army intact, even losing Paris might not be enough for accepting a surrender.
4. With France out, Britain still rule the seas, and there's nothing Germany can do to change that. White Peace?
 

Adler

Banned
If- somehow- the Kerensky government did the only sensible action in the war, to terminate it in 1917, the war would had been over at last with Michael. The Germans would have had many soldiers earlier and would had given the French and Brits a death blow. If Nevelle make his offensive, he would have acted much more agressive and more soldiers had died. As at this time the USA were not still in the war and the Germans were to be flooding in from the Eastern Front, the whole army would have muniteed and even Petain and Foch would not have been able to stop it.

Adler
 
1. Kerensky was a Socialist Revolutionary, not a Menshevik.:rolleyes: And the Mensheviks taking power alone is ASB. A provisional government pulling out of the war is possible, but you need a good reason for it. Remember the Provisional Government fought on OTL even when things looked dire, and Lenin would preferably had fought on himself, if he had had any realistic chance to do it.

It's probably simpler if you just bring the Revolution forward. There was a general strike in Petrograd in Oct 1916 but it was suppressed. Had it not been, you could get a Provisional Government then, gradulally losing its grip through Winter 1916/17, and falling to Lenin around March.



2. Hmm, this would probably mean no need for unrestricted submarine warfare, which would butterfly away the American intervention.

USW had started at the beginning of Feb so unless the Revolution comes sooner than OTL, it is already too late to alter that. However, Wilson might have had second thoughts about a dow even at the eleventh hour.


3. A massive German invasion would be a bitch, especially with the French tendency for mutinies at the time. But do not underestimate the French. If they can keep their army intact, even losing Paris might not be enough for accepting a surrender.

The loss of Paris would make it very difficult to fight on, since the railway system of northern France radiated from the capital, and would be paralysed by its loss. Theoretically, the war could continue in the southern half of the country, but the blow to morale would be so enormous that I can't really picture it.


4. With France out, Britain still rule the seas, and there's nothing Germany can do to change that. White Peace?

Though the u-boat campaign would be worse, with French ports ow available to Germany as bases, and of course the loss of the Conntinental war is a heavy blow to morale. Unlike 1940, it has come when Britain is already weary from three years of carnage. Might not be as white as all that.

Also, of course, there is the blow to British prestige. Even OTL, Indian nationalism built up fast between the wars. How long could a defeated Britain hold on there?
 
It's probably simpler if you just bring the Revolution forward. There was a general strike in Petrograd in Oct 1916 but it was suppressed. Had it not been, you could get a Provisional Government then, gradulally losing its grip through Winter 1916/17, and falling to Lenin around March.

I agree - even better have the reason for the increase unrest being a failed Brusilov offensive. That probably means that Rumania does not enter the war as well.

With pro-war parties discredited in 1916 the door is open for the Bolsheviks to overthrow the government directly in 1916-7, allowing Germany to plan the Kaiser's offensives in spring of 1917, possibly as a backhanded response to Nivelle's failed offensive which would also take advantage of the mutinies.
 
This is an irrelevant question, any POD post 1916 that doesn't involve the break of the British blockade is going to result in a German defeat. People focus on what the armies are doing and that matters, but an army is just a representation of the underlying economy and after 1916 Germany's went in to a death spiral.
They simply didn't have enough food or basic materials to keep their war economy going and even if they capture Paris in 1918 they are still going to fall apart some time that winter. German troops can be at Cherbourg but some time between July 1918 and June 1919 they aren't going to be getting any more bullets because the supplies of ammonium nitrate have run out, they aren't going to be getting any more shells because the supplies of a list of metals have run out. Looting from Russia and France can delay that (capturing Northern France kept Germany in the war for an extra year) but they need trade with the outside world, especially Chile.
Even beating Russia and getting an agreement to supply them with raw materials (like in OTL) won't be enough as the east-west transport net is wrecked and if the Russians are out of the war then their economy (and this ability to supply Germany) is trashed as well. The only way you can have a CP victory after 1916 is to have Jutland (or an alt equivalent) go the other way and allow Germany to import raw materials once more.
 
There would need to be a Provisional Government first, for Lenin and Trotsky to be able to return to Russia - but with the miseries of aRussian Winter added to everything else, it might have lost control faster than OTL's.

Alternatively, arrange for Lenin to be in Sweden at the outbreak of war, rather than Switzerland. Then he can get involved much more quickly.
 
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This is an irrelevant question, any POD post 1916 that doesn't involve the break of the British blockade is going to result in a German defeat. People focus on what the armies are doing and that matters, but an army is just a representation of the underlying economy and after 1916 Germany's went in to a death spiral.
They simply didn't have enough food or basic materials to keep their war economy going and even if they capture Paris in 1918 they are still going to fall apart some time that winter. German troops can be at Cherbourg but some time between July 1918 and June 1919 they aren't going to be getting any more bullets because the supplies of ammonium nitrate have run out, they aren't going to be getting any more shells because the supplies of a list of metals have run out. Looting from Russia and France can delay that (capturing Northern France kept Germany in the war for an extra year) but they need trade with the outside world, especially Chile.
Even beating Russia and getting an agreement to supply them with raw materials (like in OTL) won't be enough as the east-west transport net is wrecked and if the Russians are out of the war then their economy (and this ability to supply Germany) is trashed as well. The only way you can have a CP victory after 1916 is to have Jutland (or an alt equivalent) go the other way and allow Germany to import raw materials once more.

If Paris falls in September 1917 what then?

Do the French continue fighting or seek terms?
 
If Paris falls in September 1917 what then?

Do the French continue fighting or seek terms?


I suspect they would seek terms. If Germany demanded all of France´s colonies, they would refuse but a statue ko peace as the Germans already considered in 1916, they would accept.

Without France nor Russia, London and Washington would come to negociate the end of WW1.

Borders in the west are restaured to 1913, while Germany makes a buffer state out of Poland and baltics, possibly a white Russia. Berlin dominates central and eastern europe, anatolia. Later extend an economic domination to Russia if the reds are defeated (they would certainly defeat the menscheviks in an insurrection before that).

Wall Street crash is limited or doesn´t happen with Germany being an independent economical bloc.

Maybe France is radicalised as a society after WW1 but Germany would be much more powerfull and thus unlikely to face a French preventive war, Paris would also have all the lebensraum it want with its colonial territories.
 
This is an irrelevant question, any POD post 1916 that doesn't involve the break of the British blockade is going to result in a German defeat.

Are we assuming that the US still enters the war?

US intervention crucially strengthened the blockade. The neutrals adjoining Germany drew most of their imports from America, so these could now be controlled at source, removing the need for a physical blockade. The blockade was a handicap for Germany before April 1917, but it was US participation that turned it into a stranglehold.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
I suspect they would seek terms. If Germany demanded all of France´s colonies, they would refuse but a statue ko peace as the Germans already considered in 1916, they would accept.

Without France nor Russia, London and Washington would come to negociate the end of WW1.

Borders in the west are restaured to 1913, while Germany makes a buffer state out of Poland and baltics, possibly a white Russia. Berlin dominates central and eastern europe, anatolia. Later extend an economic domination to Russia if the reds are defeated (they would certainly defeat the menscheviks in an insurrection before that).

Wall Street crash is limited or doesn´t happen with Germany being an independent economical bloc.

Maybe France is radicalised as a society after WW1 but Germany would be much more powerfull and thus unlikely to face a French preventive war, Paris would also have all the lebensraum it want with its colonial territories.

Except Germany would demand some French colonies. It was always one of their main goals. But they wouldn't demand all of them, that would be ASB.
 
This is unlikely for reasons already stated, and also because Kerensky believed in fighting the war Russia started, which was extremely impossible. To change that you have to have prior PODs.....
 
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