On 13 March 1881, Tsar Alexander II was assassinated by the revolutionary movement the People’s Will. The initial attack, a bomb hurled at his bulletproof coach, killed the driver and injured guards. Unharmed, Alexander II, concerned for those outside, stepped out of the coach against the protestations of his personal guard. Another assassin threw a second bomb, mortally wounding Alexander II.
Ignoring the who, what, where, and how; let us assume that for whatever reason Alexander survived this attack. How might this have changed Russian history? At this time, Imperial Russia had been generally dominated by conservative authoritarian principles. Yet Alexander, partially due to his education, had developed a more liberal, humanist outlook, and in light of coming to power during the Crimea War, had realized the degree of Russia’s backwardness. As a result, Alexander II worked to implement a series of reforms and modernization in an attempt to bring Russia into line with the more advanced Western countries of Europe.
Major Reforms:
Improvement of communication via railway lines – from 600 miles (965 km) to 14,000 miles (22,525 km). Resulted in improved economic conditions for rural areas as well.
Military reforms under Dmitry Milyutin:
• Improvement of military schools
• The Army Statute of 1874: Introduced conscription for the first time, making young men of all classes liable to military service.
The Emancipation Act of February 19, 1861, which led to the abolition of serfdom, despite bitter opposition from landowning interests.
• Pros: Serfs were given modest allotments of land, and it had a great psychological effect.
• Cons: The reform failed in creating an “economically viable class of peasant” and “helped to undermine the already shaken economic foundations of Russia’s landowning class.”
Judicial Statute of 1864:
• Improved and modernized Russia’s judicial system to be comparable with Western nations (modeled somewhat on France’s).
• Established the zemstvos, elective local assemblies that:
o Extended the area of self-government.
o Improved local welfare (education, hygiene, medical care, local crafts, agronomy).
o Helped increase rural literacy.
Other Political/Religious Reforms:
• Release of political prisoners
• Return of Siberian exiles
• Relaxing of disabilities on religious minorities
• Lifting of restrictions on foreign travel
• Relaxing of Russian rule in Poland
• Abolishment of medieval punishments
Overall, the reforms modernized Russia, ended feudalism, reduced class privileges, and spared economic development. While piecemeal, it was extensive.
Despite this, Alexander II was still a firm supporter of the traditional autocratic system and generally against a constitutional or representative government. Increased political unrest in Poland and radical movements in Russia strengthened these conservative views.
However, the so-called Loris-Melikov Constitution, an ukaz that he signed on the day of his death, created a number of consultative commissions that might have been transformed eventually into a representative assembly and constitutional Monarchy. Coupled with additional plans for industrialization and increase reforms for the serfs, it might have kept the rise of Communism from happening at all.
Now in the OTL, his younger Son Alexander III preceded Alexander II. Alex-3 had been tutored by a reactionary conservative name Konstantin Pobedonostsev. He went on to repeal the few reforms Alexander II HAD put into place.
In order to ensure the changes to time, Alexander II eldest son, Nicholas, will need to survive. Nicholas when he was 20 went on a grand tour of Europe and ended up contracting cerebral-spinal meningitis, something that is hard to cure even today. He originally died at 21.
By keeping him home for that year and continuing his education, he will be ensured as the next in line. Nicholas before he died had been specifically groomed for being the next in line, and with his father now surviving, he will be assumed to be brought up to ensure his legacy and continue his fathers reform after his death.
Over all,. Should these changes to history indeed result in the rise of a reformed constitutional and eventual more democratic Russia, instead of a dictatorial communist state, how would history change?
Imagine a world with no Communism through the 20th century. No Stalin purges or Siberian prisons. No Communists revolution in China that would lead to the horrid “Cultural Revolution” which saw the deaths of countless historical artifacts as well as teachers, professors musicians, etc. Imagine new Cold War, no runaway fear and spending between the US and Russia, imagine a US with no communism, no “Red Scare” no McCarthy.
How in full would history change?