WI: Hungary won the Battle of Mohács in 1526

[kalamona]

any bohemina-hungarian-polish union would be a real powerhouse in the east.. something like france or the HRE on the west


could it defend itself from the ottomans? most probably


side note: the idea, that such entity would go alongside of france, is highly unlikely - besides that lous was an ally to the Habsburgs, both hungary and poland was endangered by the ottomans - who where french allies at that time

 

[Mefisto]

While I could see an aliance of kingdoms under the rules of one house, I think that personal union wouldn't be successful and wouldn't last long. We have Poland and Lithuania (with only recently subdued Prussia) who have to face more and more powerful Muscovy. Then we have Hungaria (in union with Croatia) which is endangered by Turks. And lastly we have Bohemia which doesn't have external enemies. But I agree that the Jagiellonian tolerance would suit all of these realms.

 

[jycee]

While I could see an aliance of kingdoms under the rules of one house, I think that personal union wouldn't be successful and wouldn't last long. We have Poland and Lithuania (with only recently subdued Prussia) who have to face more and more powerful Muscovy. Then we have Hungaria (in union with Croatia) which is endangered by Turks. And lastly we have Bohemia which doesn't have external enemies. But I agree that the Jagiellonian tolerance would suit all of these realms.

The thing is, just like Hungary or Poland in OTL, this country has threats all over the place. Ultimately it has to choose the lesser of two evils. If its stays aligned with Austria the Ottomans, Russians, Swedes, all remain a threat. By moving away from Austria it could play theses powers against each other much more effectively.

As far as the survival of the personal union I agree that it will likely not survive more than a generation or two. However in that time things can get very interesting, and so would the butterflies.

I can see Poland surviving as a political entity without it being swallowed by its neighbors.
Prussia never rises. And Muscovy's growth might be curbed. The Ottomans might likely shift focus, pay more attention to the Black Sea.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

I think a Hungarian victory would be very Pyrrhic, and the Ottomans will just return for round 2. It's not like Bohemia- Hungary can defend herself against the Turks indefinitely. However it would create a butterfly storm beginning with Ferdinand not inheriting the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary (yet).

 

[SavoyTruffle]

I think a Hungarian victory would be very Pyrrhic, and the Ottomans will just return for round 2. It's not like Bohemia- Hungary can defend herself against the Turks indefinitely. However it would create a butterfly storm beginning with Ferdinand not inheriting the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary (yet).

Not to mention that once Louis II has an heir by the time the Ottomans return for round 2, Habsburg Bohemia-Hungary is butterflied away indefinitely.

 

[Sang]

Not to mention that once Louis II has an heir by the time the Ottomans return for round 2, Habsburg Bohemia-Hungary is butterflied away indefinitely.

Are you sure the Ottomans would return?
Before invading Hungary, the Ottomans sent an emissary asking for peace, but the emissary didn't make it to Buda - he was killed before he could even reach the King.
Similar happened with the Mongols. At first, they sent an emissary too, but he was somehow killed....

 

[Janprimus]

Not to mention that once Louis II has an heir by the time the Ottomans return for round 2, Habsburg Bohemia-Hungary is butterflied away indefinitely.

That's kind of a exaggeration, the chances are only reduced. The children of Anna of Bohemia & Hungary and Ferdinand are still quite high in the line of succession, besides not only Ferdinand, but also Anna will try to keep it that way. Furthermore even if they stay independent at that point, then they will still continue to intermarry, so there still remain possibilities.

The Habsburgs lost both kingdoms before and they already regained Bohemia before (Rudolph I of Bohemia, Albert II of Germany and Ladislaus Posthumus).

 

[jycee]

That's kind of a exaggeration, the chances are only reduced. The children of Anna of Bohemia & Hungary and Ferdinand are still quite high in the line of succession, besides not only Ferdinand, but also Anna will try to keep it that way. Furthermore even if they stay independent at that point, then they will still continue to intermarry, so there still remain possibilities.

The Habsburgs lost both kingdoms before and they already regained Bohemia before (Rudolph I of Bohemia, Albert II of Germany and Ladislaus Posthumus).

Not to mention the fact that the Jagellons were not the best when it came to producing heirs on time.

However I do think it is more interesting for Louis to survive (even if Hungary does not win) than for them to win a pyrrhic victory and him still dying.

You could probably keep the Habsburgs away for two or three generations. But in the meantime we could see this Poland-Bohemia-Hunagry Political Union. That alone would cause tremendous butterflies, and if taken apart I still think it can guarantee a longer lasting Poland (probably butterflies the rise of Prussia away).

And even if the Habsburgs ultimately do take over Bohemia-Hungary it won't necessarily be the same Habsburg that holds Austria. So they can remain semi independent until the Habsburg practice of inbreeding leaves them without a viable heir causing the Bohemian-Hungarian war of succession. That might or might not result in the return of a Polish King to the thrones, or the separation of both crowns, or Bohemia-Hunagry switching alliance because they are fed up with Austria, or the establishment of the Czecho-Magyar Republic.

The possibilities are endless. And we haven't even discussed what happens to Croatia. I think it is most likely that early on, if Bohemia Hungary are still independent from Austria, that the Ottoman Empire might still take it. At least the coastal parts that would landlock Hungary.

 

[Janprimus]

Not to mention the fact that the Jagellons were not the best when it came to producing heirs on time.

However I do think it is more interesting for Louis to survive (even if Hungary does not win) than for them to win a pyrrhic victory and him still dying.

You could probably keep the Habsburgs away for two or three generations. But in the meantime we could see this Poland-Bohemia-Hunagry Political Union. That alone would cause tremendous butterflies, and if taken apart I still think it can guarantee a longer lasting Poland (probably butterflies the rise of Prussia away).

And even if the Habsburgs ultimately do take over Bohemia-Hungary it won't necessarily be the same Habsburg that holds Austria. So they can remain semi independent until the Habsburg practice of inbreeding leaves them without a viable heir causing the Bohemian-Hungarian war of succession. That might or might not result in the return of a Polish King to the thrones, or the separation of both crowns, or Bohemia-Hunagry switching alliance because they are fed up with Austria, or the establishment of the Czecho-Magyar Republic.

The possibilities are endless. And we haven't even discussed what happens to Croatia. I think it is most likely that early on, if Bohemia Hungary are still independent from Austria, that the Ottoman Empire might still take it. At least the coastal parts that would landlock Hungary.

Certainly an interesting scenario; alternatively Maximilian had a succession treaty with Vladislaus II of Bohemia and Hungary, that he and his heirs could succeed him if he had no heirs (Louis eventually was born when Vladislaus was relatively old). So instead of Louis II surviving, no Louis II to begin with would also be interesting.

Furthermore if a Habsburg branch would (want to) gain Bohemia-Hungary (Croatia was a part of the Hungarian crown, but when like IOTL succession was disputed like with Ferdinand, they could make their own choice, IOTL Croatia was a loyal supporter of Ferdinand).