WI: Hungary smashes the Ottomans

Is this possible? I've always wondered what would have happend if a few of Hunyadi's battles had swung diffrently and he had been able to reach Constantinople and/or been able to relieve Skandeburg. If this had happend, what would be the wider effects on Europe?
 
Sixty something views and nothing? Anything? I don't care if you totally pick this apart, I'd just like some feedback :(
 

Hashasheen

Banned
Sixty something views and nothing? Anything? I don't care if you totally pick this apart, I'd just like some feedback :(
No offence, but the Ottomans have had a number of threads on them recently. Adding another one that is not the hopeful start of a TL doesn't help your chance. Not to mention our one Ottoman expert is only one person and can't be so thinly stretched.
 
Is this possible? I've always wondered what would have happend if a few of Hunyadi's battles had swung diffrently and he had been able to reach Constantinople and/or been able to relieve Skandeburg. If this had happend, what would be the wider effects on Europe?

Hunyadi's performance already approached ASB - I'm not sure how much better he could have done. The Ottomans were not the only polity on his borders. Besides the impossibility of taking Istanbul, the attempt would be incredibly costly in men and money, and leave Hungary wide open to attack.
 
Hunyadi's performance already approached ASB - I'm not sure how much better he could have done. The Ottomans were not the only polity on his borders. Besides the impossibility of taking Istanbul, the attempt would be incredibly costly in men and money, and leave Hungary wide open to attack.
Ah, thank you. And Hashasheen I appolgize for my impatience and further watering down the board with Ottoman's, more orginality next time I promise!
Just one thing, I wasn't talking about taking Istanbull per se, more about relieving it from the Ottomans perhaps after a more sucesfull Varna crusade?
 
If the westerners manage to keep Murad out of the Balkans in 1443-1444, the Ottoman European holdings are easy pickings. As Hunyadi proved it, he was completely ok with forming a complex of orthodox vassals in the region, therefore we would see the bulgarians recreate their two principalities, Serbia taking Macedonia, Albania taking Epirus, even Byzantium managing to grasp Adrianopole, with hungarian help.

If the Ottomans lose the Balkans they are pretty much finished. They'll become easy prey for the other turkish principalities in Asia Minor.
 

Keenir

Banned
If the westerners manage to keep Murad out of the Balkans in 1443-1444, the Ottoman European holdings are easy pickings. As Hunyadi proved it, he was completely ok with forming a complex of orthodox vassals in the region, therefore we would see the bulgarians recreate their two principalities, Serbia taking Macedonia, Albania taking Epirus, even Byzantium managing to grasp Adrianopole, with hungarian help.

If the Ottomans lose the Balkans they are pretty much finished. They'll become easy prey for the other turkish principalities in Asia Minor.

except the Ottomans had a number of loyal Balkan rulers - Serbia included. so while the Ottomans might get beaten back, they won't be kicked out of Europe.
 
If the westerners manage to keep Murad out of the Balkans in 1443-1444, the Ottoman European holdings are easy pickings. As Hunyadi proved it, he was completely ok with forming a complex of orthodox vassals in the region, therefore we would see the bulgarians recreate their two principalities, Serbia taking Macedonia, Albania taking Epirus, even Byzantium managing to grasp Adrianopole, with hungarian help.

If the Ottomans lose the Balkans they are pretty much finished. They'll become easy prey for the other turkish principalities in Asia Minor.

There is no way to keep Murad out of the Balkans. It's physically impossible without an army of angry sentient giant squids. The Ottomans control every point along the Straits except for the actual city of Constantinople. They can easily command the Straits, which are in many places less than a mile across, with cannon and other fire. It's simply not going to happen, period.

And everyone seems to always forget that the Ottomans have massive Muslim manpower resources IN THE BALKANS. The Ottomans are NOT NOT NOT, for the billionth time, NOT an Anatolian power, they are a BALKAN power.

Hunyadi's alliances were ultimately unsuccessful, with the Serbs preferring to support the Ottomans. Alliances are also easier to hold together when faced by a great and mutual danger than they are when there's actual territory to divvy up.
 
There is no way to keep Murad out of the Balkans. It's physically impossible without an army of angry sentient giant squids. The Ottomans control every point along the Straits except for the actual city of Constantinople. They can easily command the Straits, which are in many places less than a mile across, with cannon and other fire. It's simply not going to happen, period.

And everyone seems to always forget that the Ottomans have massive Muslim manpower resources IN THE BALKANS. The Ottomans are NOT NOT NOT, for the billionth time, NOT an Anatolian power, they are a BALKAN power.

Hunyadi's alliances were ultimately unsuccessful, with the Serbs preferring to support the Ottomans. Alliances are also easier to hold together when faced by a great and mutual danger than they are when there's actual territory to divvy up.

So this is a wank but the Ottomans conquering Italy and Granada is somewhat normal? :rolleyes:

I fully support the idea that the Ottomans are a balkan power. For the bilionth time, they weren't a Mediteranean power until the North African pirates offered them the opportunity. Without them, there would have been no Algiers/Tunis provinces, no siege of Malta, no French alliance. The idea that Hunyadi cannot resurrect 50 years after their demise the bulgarian states but that the Ottomans reach the other side of Mediterranean Sea as easy as a stroll through the park stinks of patriotism.

The Battle of Varna was not an open and shut case. It was almost won by the Christian army, even though it was way smaller than its muslim counterpart. The bulgarians participated in the battle and they even had the official pretender to the throne of Bulgaria with them. Hunyadi already controlled Moldavia and Wallachia, plus it had a probable ally in Skanderbeg. Besides in 1444 the Brancovic family was a clear Hungarian ally.

In case of a victory, the Ottoman Empire doesn't dissapear. But the Christian forces have an ace up their sleeve. Byzantium has an ottoman pretender living in Constantinople, Orhan, the same guy that would fight in 1453 for the defense of the city. The Byzantines had a history of supporting claimants to the throne of Osman: Mehmed I was one such guy. It's not impossible for this guy to take charge in the madness following the battle of Varna and impose himself either in the Balkans or in Anatolia... making it very hard for the ottomans to revive their fortunes.

And since we don't seem to have many anti-ottoman wanks, I just want to say one thing: the early fall of the Ottoman empire is a wank only beginning with the reign of Mehmed II. Before that, anything can happen.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
So this is a wank but the Ottomans conquering Italy and Granada is somewhat normal? :rolleyes:

I've seen that and also agree. So the Ottomans are going to magically send a large amount of soldiers all the way to Spain, when they have their own problems to deal with? The Ottoman fleet wouldn't be enough to stop Spain's dominance over Granada, and if Spain felt that Granada needed taken earlier, it would be. A large part of the reason that Granada lasted as long as it did was because the Castilians felt that taking Granada violated their POLITICAL goals. Sure, the Granadans could probably fight harder before Castile was quite as advanced, but Granada didn't last as long as it did because it was a hard target, it lasted as long as it did because it was in Castile's interests to keep Granada around.

I fully support the idea that the Ottomans are a balkan power. For the bilionth time, they weren't a Mediteranean power until the North African pirates offered them the opportunity. Without them, there would have been no Algiers/Tunis provinces, no siege of Malta, no French alliance. The idea that Hunyadi cannot resurrect 50 years after their demise the bulgarian states but that the Ottomans reach the other side of Mediterranean Sea as easy as a stroll through the park stinks of patriotism.[/quote]

At this time, the Ottomans need hella good luck to vassalize Granada and threaten Spain. They have no bases from which to operate.

The Battle of Varna was not an open and shut case. It was almost won by the Christian army, even though it was way smaller than its muslim counterpart. The bulgarians participated in the battle and they even had the official pretender to the throne of Bulgaria with them. Hunyadi already controlled Moldavia and Wallachia, plus it had a probable ally in Skanderbeg. Besides in 1444 the Brancovic family was a clear Hungarian ally.

There were certainly many people who wanted the Ottomans gone. While there was certainly a substantial Muslim population, I seriously doubt that they were yet the majority.

In case of a victory, the Ottoman Empire doesn't dissapear. But the Christian forces have an ace up their sleeve. Byzantium has an ottoman pretender living in Constantinople, Orhan, the same guy that would fight in 1453 for the defense of the city. The Byzantines had a history of supporting claimants to the throne of Osman: Mehmed I was one such guy. It's not impossible for this guy to take charge in the madness following the battle of Varna and impose himself either in the Balkans or in Anatolia... making it very hard for the ottomans to revive their fortunes.

I do think however, that while Orhan can cause trouble, he can't take over much of the Empire.

And since we don't seem to have many anti-ottoman wanks, I just want to say one thing: the early fall of the Ottoman empire is a wank only beginning with the reign of Mehmed II. Before that, anything can happen.

But the earlier the better.
 
But the earlier the better.

My POD is a victory at Varna for the Christians and the death of Murad (seems appropriate)...

1444 Mehmed was quite different from 1453 Mehmed. For one thing he was only 12. He depended on the powerful Candarlı Pasa, and while his ultimate victory against this powerful figure was to come after Constantinople's conquest, in 1444 he would have been too weak to take charge of the situation. Remember that in 1444 they had to ask Murad to come back since there was nobody they could have sent in his place at Varna.

I also recall 1451, when most Christian powers were extremly happy with Mehmed's ascension to the throne. They still saw him in the light of the 1444-1446 events. And while some historians are ready to point out the fact that the letter that convinced Murat to come back in 1444 was sent by his son, it's obvious the call was made directly by Candarlı Pasa (it's no wonder Murad had to come back a second time in 1446 and relieve his son of his duties... his relationship with the Grand Vezier was extremly bad).

Hunyadi had the right tools and capability to take on the turks. While Skanderbeg, Vlad Tepes or Stephen the Great were regional leaders, in bad need for powerful allies, Hunyadi controlled the hungarian military forces, was extremly influential in the realms of nearby orthodox powers and had excellent strategic views towards the Balkans.
 

Susano

Banned
So this is a wank but the Ottomans conquering Italy and Granada is somewhat normal? :rolleyes:
Grenada? That would be ASB. But yes, the Ottomans coqnueringSouth Italy is some orders of magnitude more probable and realistic than the Hungarians "smashing" the Ottomans, and the Ottoman Empire desintegrating afterwards.
 

Nikephoros

Banned
Hunyadi had the right tools and capability to take on the turks. While Skanderbeg, Vlad Tepes or Stephen the Great were regional leaders, in bad need for powerful allies, Hunyadi controlled the hungarian military forces, was extremly influential in the realms of nearby orthodox powers and had excellent strategic views towards the Balkans.

Well, he certainly was something else.
 
Grenada? That would be ASB. But yes, the Ottomans coqnueringSouth Italy is some orders of magnitude more probable and realistic than the Hungarians "smashing" the Ottomans, and the Ottoman Empire desintegrating afterwards.

Well, when people inquired about the possibilities of Timur/Karaman of destroying the Ottomans, the normal answer was: "no way, the Ottoman center was in the Balkans".

Guess what? If Hunyadi defeats the Ottomans at Varna and kills Murad (logical since in our world king Vladislav died and the Christians were defeated), the Ottomans risk losing the center of their empire. Serbia only recently lost Kosovo so it would try its best to regain it, we have Skanderbeg in Albania that has enough military capability of taking out Epirus and Thessaly, we have Hunyadi prepared with the Bulgarian legitimate czar, plus the Wallachian Vlad Dracul taking out Dobrudja, lost in 1420.

You're ignoring the fact that Murad's death in 1444 is gonna be absolutely devastating for the Empire. More than Bayazid's defeat since we have now a real coalition of enemies jumping at the Ottoman throat. No more 2000 western knights treating the wars as a crusade: Hunyadi invented the Modern War against Ottomans [tm]. Also we have no suitable heirs: at 12, Mehmed is too young to count. The only guy that could do it is Orhan and he is the guest of the Byzantines...

The Ottomans don't get destroyed... They get to keep Thrace, Edirne, Macedonia, Western Anatolia... but it wouldn't be the end of it. The first defeat will bring more enemies to the table.
 
1444

November The Christian army led by John Hunyadi defeats the Ottoman forces at Varna. Murad II is slain while running away from the battlefield and his head is presented to king Vladislav. Mehmed II is once again proclaimed Sultan but because of his tender age, the Empire remains under the indirect leadership of Candarli Pasa.

December The main Christian army returns to Hungary. John Hunyadi offers Dobrudja (when it will be conquered) to Vlad Dracul for him to continue fighting for the alliance. Fruzhin, the son of Ivan Sishman, the late Bulgarian czar, asks for help delivering Bulgaria from the Ottomans. He promises to raise fresh troops by spring next year in exchange for the Bulgarian crown.

1445

March King Vladislav receives from Candarli Pasa a request for peace and the return to the conditions of the ten year truce. The Hungarian king refuses, since the preparations for a new campaign are almost complete. Emir Ibrahim of Karaman invades Ottoman Anatolia.

April The new Christian army, numbering about 25,000 soldiers, enters Ottoman territory and begins the siege of Vidin. 5,000 Bulgarians under the leadership of Fruzhin joins them.

May Vidin is conquered. While it maintains a Hungarian garrison, the town is given to Fruzhin, who is proclaimed Czar of Bulgaria under the name Ivan Sishman II. King Vladislav accepts Fruzhin as vassal, under the same obligations as Wallachia. Other Bulgarian troops manage to retake Nicopolis.

June The Ottomans make peace with Karaman, giving up several border forts, as well as paying a rather large sum of money. Their new army is ready to go against Hunyadi, but the Grand Vizier lacks a good field commander. He eventually decides to take the field himself. The Christian armies conquer Nis and approach Kosovo.

August With Skanderbeg at his side, Hunyadi begins the battle of Kossovoplje at the head of a 35,000 army, made up of Hungarians, Czechs, Bulgarians, Albanians, Serbs and Poles. Candarli Pasa has 50,000 soldiers of questionable value. The Crusaders manage to inflict a disastrous defeat upon the Ottomans: 20,000 soldiers killed or captured, Candarli Pasa a prisoner. Impressed by Skanderbeg, who was the real victor of the day; Hunyadi offers him an alliance. Vlad Dracul enters Dobrudja and obtains the control of the province.

September Despot Konstantine XI of Moreea enters Thessaly (after conquering Athens and Thebes the previous year). Macedonia and Epirus become the target of both Skanderbeg and Konstantine, while the Ottoman Empire, without the leadership of Murad and Candarli is in disarray. Orhan, the Ottoman Pretender, leaves Constantinople with his troops and debark at Niceea.

November Hunyadi takes Tarnovo, which will become the capital of the new Bulgarian state. Skanderbeg defeats the last Ottoman remnants in Albania. Orhan takes over Niceea and proclaims himself Sultan Orhan II. The second Ottoman civil war begins.
 
1446

January Candarli Pasa is freed from prison, with the promise he will fulfill every condition of the Christians (the loss of Western Bulgaria, Kosovo, Albania, Dobrudja and Epirus). At Edirne he is murdered by Mehmed II. The sultan resumes the fight. Orhan begins the siege of Bursa.

February Bursa surrenders and accepts Orhan II as Sultan. Mehmed II is forced to concentrate on Anatolia, leaving the provincial Balkan governors to deal with the Christians.

March Ivan Sishman II is defeated at Philipolis. Bulgaria is incapable of passing the Haemus Mountains. Thrace remains in Ottoman hands.

May The Venetians conquer Arta. Epirus is divided between Venetia, Moreea and Albania.

August Duradj Brancovic asserts himself in northern Kosovo, yet doesn’t become an official ally of the Christian Crusade. He demands Macedonia and the sovereignty over Albania in exchange for a full participation to the war effort. He is refused.

October Konstantine is defeated before the walls of Thessalonica. He manages to keep most of Thessaly, though. The year ends badly for the Christian forces, unable to move past the Haemus – Macedonia – Thessalonica line. Worst of all, Albania and Serbia are in a virtual state of war because of the Serbian claims.

1447

January Hungary and the Ottoman Empire conclude peace. The Ottomans recognize Bulgaria and Albania and accept the loss of southern Kosovo to Albania. Moreea remains in the war on the side of Orhan II.

April Orhan II is defeated at Bursa. He manages to escape to Byzantium but his power is virtually gone. The second civil war ends.

August Duradj Brancovic seeks the help of Mehmed II against Skanderbeg. The two states conclude an understanding: while Serbia wants southern Kosovo and some parts of northern Albania, the Ottomans desire the end of the Albanian warlord and the destruction of the Christian alliance. The war does not begin just yet, but Serbia is out of Hunyadi’s influence.

1448

February Mehmed II begins his campaign against Moreea. It’s his first presence on the military field. The Ottoman armies manage to retake most of Thessaly but they are stopped at Thermopile

May Mehmed II begins the siege of Constantinople. While he has fewer resources than in our OTL, his opponent is the weak-willed John VIII. Hunyadi forms plans for a new campaign, but he has problems in raising troops.

July Constantinople falls. John VIII is executed, alongside Orhan. The Christian world is shocked.

August Vlad Dracul dies. Vlad Tepes becomes Voivode of Wallachia.

September John Hunyadi begins a new campaign, this time against Duradj Brancovic, who asks for Mehmed II’s help. Vlachs, Bulgarians and Albanians begin to raid Ottoman territory.

November The battle of Nis. Hunyadi and Skanderbeg defeat Mehmed II and Duradj Brancovic. The war will end by next year without great territorial changes. While they lost a great deal of territory, the Ottomans managed to resist the Christians onslaught. On the other side Hunyadi created a network of allies against the Ottomans, keeping their expansion at bay.

What happened in the next years (1449-1601):

The Ottomans

Mehmed II concentrated against Anatolia, managing to take down Karaman in 1452 and Trebizond in 1454. In the war against Uzun Hassan (1461-1464), he managed to defeat him, while having to concede several territories in the west. He died in 1485 after a successful campaign against the Mameluks and the conquest of Syria, Cilicia and Lebanon. His son, Bayazid, moved the capital back to Bursa in an attempt to purify the religious make-up of the empire. He is most famous for his laws, but also for his alliance with the Crimean Horde. The Ottomans would become a second rate power after his reign, losing most of their Balkan territories in the 16th century and eventually Constantinople in 1601.

Hungary

Hunyadi died in 1462, in Macedonia. After his death, his son Matyas would become the leading general of the Christian troops in the Ottoman war of 1461-1464. As Voivode of Transylvania (1465-1472) he became estranged with Vladislav who made sure to assassinate him, an event that led to the famous Noble Rebellion (1473-1475). After Vladislav’s death in 1478, Hungary became a lead member of the Polish-Hungarian Commonwealth under the Jagiellonian Dynasty.

Albania

Skanderbeg died in 1469, after conquering Macedonia and Thessalonica. His large realm fractured after his death but Albania remained an important Balkan power and the main channel of Italian Renaissance in the region.

Wallachia

Vlad Tepes (reigned between 1448-1476) was the main figure associated with the war of 1461-1464, as well as the Noble rebellion of 1473-1475. During his reign he became hegemon of Bulgaria, Moldavia, Transylvania and a large part of Cossack Transdnester, while having a reputation of a madman, cruel, vicious ruler. His descendant Michael conquered Constantinople in 1601 consolidating the holdings of the Basarabs in the region. Apart from some regions, the realm remained in a wild and untamed state until the 18th century.

Moreea

A bit neglected until the 16th century, Moreea (or the Greek Kingdom) began seeing during the Mavrokordatos Dynasty (started in 1564) the return of their good luck. After securing Thessalonica and a large part of Thrace, the state would concentrate on naval power, making it eventually big on the colonial stage.

Serbia

Dominated by the Hungarian-Polish Commonwealth, Serbia had no bright future ahead. By 1550 the realm consisted of a patchwork of noble territories, squabbling over anything, with a king with no formal power.

Bulgaria

After Ivan Sishman II's death in 1458, Bulgaria accepted Vlad Tepes as czar. It would eventually become independent by the 19th century.
 
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