WI: Hungary leaves the Axis?

In October of 1944, Hungary under Miklós Horthy's authoritarian, Axis-aligned regime was under threat from Soviet invasion. Seven months prior, the Wehrmacht was ordered by Hitler to militarily occupy the country - not only to defend Germany from the Soviet advance, but also to force Hungary to stay in the Axis. The Horthy government sought an armistice with the Allies and tried to finalize terms with the Red Army when Hitler caught wind of the plan and first ordered Otto Skorzeny and the SS to capture Horthy's son when he was meeting with Soviet representatives, then ordered the Wehrmacht and SS to seize control over Budapest, the Hungarian government and the Army. The plan worked successfully: Horthy was deposed and arrested, the negotiations were ended, and Hungary ultimately fought with Germany to the bitter end.

What if the Germans never caught wind of the plan, the peace negotiations bore fruit, and Hungary left the Axis? How would be Hungary's future be shaped by the lack of a full-on Soviet military takeover, and what changes would happen in the War?
 
The Germans invade, and Hungary is liberated by the Soviets in the end anyway. Other countries left the Axis when the Soviets were near, but the Germans weren't in a good position to reassert control.

If Hungary successfully escapes the axis, it will fall to communism anyway, like Romania and Bulgaria. It was assigned to the Soviet sphere of influence.
 
It might end with better terms for the Hungarians still, the Soviets might let them keep their territory in Transylvania, Stalin didn't seem to like Romania to much, they only got their gains from Hungary back and lost land to both Bulgaria and the USSR. Here Hungary gives them the Ukrainian areas but keeps Romanian and Slovak gains they still get a communist government but the red army doesn't rape every woman and child in Budapest. Well not every but :( https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...shame-hungarian-women-remember-wartime-rapes/
 
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I imagine the final terms of those peace negotiations would have to include the Hungarian government's permission to allow Soviet troops in and through.

This leaves Hungary less damaged as it avoids the rampant German pillaging and abuse, the Arrow Cross regime's brutality and incompetence, and the Red Army's worst excesses. But the eventual outcome would look much like OTL - Hungary would be gradually taken over by Communists over the next few years.
 
As soon as they leave, Hitler orders the country occupied and immediately brings harsh reprisals for their "desertion". They might get a little better treatment from Stalin because they tried to get away from Nazi Germany, but not much. It is Stalin after all.
 

LordKalvert

Banned
October 1944 is too late and Hungary is too small to have much bargaining position. Now Antonescu had a decent idea when he flew to see Mussolini in June 1943- that Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Finland and Italy all leave together and join the allies. That might be a tempting offer
 
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