WI: Hungarian 1956 Revolution more successful?

[Zioneer]

So, in my school, we've been learning about the Hungarian revolution against the Soviets. And I was impressed with the resilience of the revolters. I mean, what other nation in Eastern Europe was independent, even for only 6 days, from the Soviet Union?

Anyway, then I started to wonder, what if they were more successful, and NATO was friendlier towards them? Could Hungary stay independent of the Soviet Union, plausibly?

 

[Claudius]

Probably not. Eisenhower and Dulles were not going to risk nuclear confronation with the SU over Hungary. Remember, in 1956 Ike did nothing to support the Brits, French and Israelis over Suez. Support for an Afghanistan-type guerrilla war against the Red Army like Reagan did would not likely work on the plains of Hungary.

 

[MerryPrankster]

If the Suez Crisis does not occur, the West will be undivided and the Soviets won't have that to cover their troop movements.

(One Soviet soldier thought they were going to Egypt.)

That could delay the Soviet retribution long enough for the West to make some arrangement acceptable to both parties (Hungarian neutrality?) or give the post-revolutionary government more time to settle in and reconstitute the armed forces that dissolved in the chaos (so they'd have tanks and aircraft of their own).

The latter will just prolong the agonies, but you didn't say "more successful," not "successful."

 

[Grand_Panjandrum]

If the Hungarians had more Western support, Tito might have been less cautious in lending aid. I would foresee a strong alliance between him and Nagy, with Hungary being a founding member of the Non-Aligned Movement.

 

[Urban fox]

Hmm, the Soviets send more troops. That about it.

There is no chance in hell the Soviets will let Hungary splid from their grasp, if only for spite. It should be rembered this was only 11 years after WW2 and Hungary was an Axis menber.

The Soviets tended to crack-down a bit harder on nations perceived to be historically unfriendly. (Czechoslovakia not withstanding)

 

[Old Airman]

Hmm, the Soviets send more troops. That about it.

Yes, after Nagy lost control over the force he unleashed and freedom-loving Hungarians celebrated their revolution by impaling communist activists on wooden sticks in front of besieged Soviet embassy, there's little chance to go back. Hungarian movement (unlike later Czech one) mutated from a call for Democratic Socialism to outright bloody anti-communist purge very early on. There're little chances of Soviets finding the common ground with a movement like this. Gives very bad example to their other satellites (as in "you murder commies in most gruesome way and you're rewarded with independence").

 

[Blizrun]

Zero.

The Soviets were not about to let a neighboring nation be anything but within their sphere of influence, and that includes neutral.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

MerryPrankster, Eisenhower's position over Suez was clear and if nothing is going on in and around Hungary that only means he has time to be firmer with the British, French and Israelis.

There is no chance that Moscow is willing to yield a satellite regime, least of all one with a (small) border with the USSR itself.




As for Old Airman's justifying Soviet brutality in Hungary, both before and after the events of 1956, by inventing charges against the victim...

 

[MerryPrankster]

MerryPrankster, Eisenhower's position over Suez was clear and if nothing is going on in and around Hungary that only means he has time to be firmer with the British, French and Israelis.

Umm...I said if the Suez Crisis did NOT occur, not the Hungarian Revolution not occurring.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Here's another idea:

The Soviet leadership greatly feared fraternization between the Hungarian rebels and their own soldiers, which is why the formations they sent to deal with the situation were so tank-heavy.

(It's hard for the Red Army conscripts to hear "brothers, who are you shooting" through steel, after all.)

OTL saw Soviet soldiers executed for refusing to fire on Hungarian protesters after the Revolution and according to the Wiki, many Soviet soldiers in-country were sympathetic to the rebels.

Perhaps they're a bit more confident and send a more infantry-dominated force and it blows up in their faces?

I imagine the rebellion would still be crushed anyway, but it'd be more difficult for the Soviets and hurt them more.

 

[Captain Poplar]

As for Old Airman's justifying Soviet brutality in Hungary, both before and after the events of 1956, by inventing charges against the victim...

Although I think, like you, that Soviet intervention was a murderous invasion, Airman referred to historical facts.

 

[MerryPrankster]

The Wiki describes lynchings of Communists during the revolt, but not impaling. That'd be weird enough to merit specific mention.

 

[MerryPrankster]

If by some miracle the Soviets are forced back from Budapest, would they nuke the city?

I admit this was inspired by the Draka nuking Barcelona after a successful slave revolt in The Stone Dogs and the USSR under Khruschev was not as brutal as the Draka, but it'd be an efficient way to set an example and destroy the troublemakers with a single stroke.

Also, here're possible PODs for a stronger resistance to the Russians during the crushing the revolt:

1. Nagy heard reports of advancing Soviet troops and asked Andropov (THE Andropov) if the Soviets were coming. Androprov, knowing full well they were, said they weren't. If Nagy was less trusting, he might have more time to prepare.

2. The revolutionary government's SecDef and some other VIPs were lured into "negotiations" about the Red Army leaving and were arresting. Them not being so trusting could provide more coordinated leadership for the Hungarian Army, which didn't do a whole lot during the revolution.

 

[Faralis]

There is no way in hell they nuke the city, if they were forced back they would have simply used "ye old Soviet style"(tm): send more troops.

Basically barring a WWIII that revolt has no chance to survive ... 0

 

[Grimm Reaper]

MerryPrankster, if the Suez Crisis doesn't take place, which would take a rather massive POD, Eisenhower won't change his position on Hungary.

There's nothing he can do that will make a difference without starting WWIII and there is no chance he will do that.



The opinion that the USSR could not be prevented from retaking Hungary and would not yield it is, I believe, a consensus. Yes?


That a few of the Hungarian communists were lynched does not surprise me in the slightest nor is it news but the idea that this event had the slightest effect on the Soviet decision is...implausible. I do, however, reject that this can be considered bloody compared to how the Hungarian were treated from 1945-1956 or following the revolt.



I suggest The Bridge At Andau by James Michener to those interested in that period in Hungary.

 

[Urban fox]

Although I think, like you, that Soviet intervention was a murderous invasion, Airman referred to historical facts.

Indeed the Hungarian actions cant be excluded from scrutiny in dealing with 1956. The besieging of the Soviet Embassy and mobs lynching any Soviet citizens they caught. Had a chilling effect of the Soviet leadership whose conduct had been rather dithering in the early part of the uprising.

The Hungarian demands justified or not were simply too extreme, there was no way the Soviets were going to allow another country slip out of their orbit like Yugoslavia (especially not one they’d been at war with only 11 years ago). The best the Hungarians could’ve got was a less repressive though still Communist dominated government. Pushing for a full victory (I.E quiting the WarPac etc) was just suicidal stupidly.

The Soviet leadership greatly feared fraternization between the Hungarian rebels and their own soldiers, which is why the formations they sent to deal with the situation were so tank-heavy.

(It's hard for the Red Army conscripts to hear "brothers, who are you shooting" through steel, after all.)

OTL saw Soviet soldiers executed for refusing to fire on Hungarian protesters after the Revolution and according to the Wiki, many Soviet soldiers in-country were sympathetic to the rebels.

Perhaps they're a bit more confident and send a more infantry-dominated force and it blows up in their faces?

I imagine the rebellion would still be crushed anyway, but it'd be more difficult for the Soviets and hurt them more.

No the Red Army was just used tanks, to a much greater degree than it's NATO counterparts. And tanks would be a bit more intimidating than grunts when dealing with a rioting mob, so that factor cant be overlooked. Infantry was used in bulk of any fighting anyway.

There are few signs the mass of Soviet troops had sympathy with the rebels. Indeed the opposite would seem to be true as the Hungarians had the habit of shooting in throwing things at them along with jeering. So any propaganda coming from the rebels would be laughed to scorn.

The wiki article grossly overstated a few rare cases.

There is no way in hell they nuke the city, if they were forced back they would have simply used "ye old Soviet style"(tm): send more troops.

Basically barring a WWIII that revolt has no chance to survive ... 0

Indeed the U.S.S.R even under Stalin wasnt as brutal as the Draka.

The Red Army wouldnt pour more troops into the city till it feel, they'd mass artillery fire on it along with airstrikes before sending in any further attacks. Budapest would look like Stalingrad by the time they were done.

 

[oudi14]

Just for a minute, let us imagine this scenario. Ike does the unthinkable. He decides that he must be the saviour of the oppressed Hungarians. Or he flips out and turns into Reagan on steroids. Or whatever. And he orders planeloads of troops to fly from FRG to Budapest, and the airport is secured, then GIs fan out all over the city, to provide a 'tripwire force' like on the Korean DMZ. In the 5 days before the soviets come back with a venegance, they manage to get a division's worh of troops in place, mostly light infantry. So now what?
And please, please, don't tell me Ike would never ever do this, it is ASB, logistically impossible or anything else; I already know that. My thought is simply this, if faced with these facts on the ground, and a POTUS back in DC who's suddenly morphed from gentle Ike into Patton on a bad day, all in 72 hours, is Kruschev really going to risk a nuclear war with the west, or will he blink [like he did 6 years later over cuba] let Hungary go, and then send whatever Beria clones he can round up into every other WP nation, just to make sure they don't get any funny ideas. Call me dumb or naive, but I say he blinks. Now, if Stalin were still there, I probably wouldn't be sitting here typing this.

 

[wormyguy]

The Soviets tended to crack-down a bit harder on nations perceived to be historically unfriendly. (Czechoslovakia not withstanding)

A large number of Czechs fought with the Whites in the Russian Civil War, Czechoslovakia invited large numbers of White Russian emigres in after the RCW, Czechoslovakia included Ruthenia, which was Ukrainian-majority, and "independent Slovakia" was an Axis member. Of the Warsaw Pact countries, the only ones that could not be considered "historically unfriendly" to Russia were Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Albania. To be fair, they did let anti-Soviet regimes continue to exist in Yugoslavia and Albania.

 

[Urban fox]

A large number of Czechs fought with the Whites in the Russian Civil War, Czechoslovakia invited large numbers of White Russian emigres in after the RCW, Czechoslovakia included Ruthenia, which was Ukrainian-majority, and "independent Slovakia" was an Axis member. Of the Warsaw Pact countries, the only ones that could not be considered "historically unfriendly" to Russia were Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, and Albania. To be fair, they did let anti-Soviet regimes continue to exist in Yugoslavia and Albania.

True to a degree but Czechoslovak-Soviet relations were good in intra-war period, the Czechoslovak’s are Slavs, the Slovak army didn’t really do anything and ’’Slovakia'' was an outright puppet. Unlike say Hungary & Romania.

The other Axis nations also deployed large numbers of troops to the Eastern Front and lastly Czechoslovakia was seen as a fellow victim of Nazi aggression, Others like Hungary for example was an outright Fascist enemy as far as the Soviets were concerned.

 

[Lokari]

but Czechoslovak-Soviet relations were good in intra-war period, the Czechoslovak’s are Slavs

Did it matter ? After all the second largest Slavic group are Poles, and Stalin was Georgian.
Anyway-after the end of the WW2 when Czechs encountered Soviets on their own soil the relation did change.