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In 1898 the Guangxu Emperor initiated the so-called Hundred Days reform as a response to the crippling defeat in the Sino-Japanese war. The reforms included the following:

  • Modernizing the traditional exam system
  • Elimination of sinecures (positions that provide little or no work but give a salary)
  • Creation of a modern education system (studying math and science instead of focusing mainly on Confucian texts, etc.)
  • Change the government from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy with democracy.
  • Apply principles of capitalism to strengthen the economy.
  • Completely change the military buildup to strengthen the military.
  • Rapidly industrialize all of China through manufacturing, commerce, and capitalism.
The conservative elite was against. The members of the Grand Council were afraid of losing power and the Emperor's actions greatly angered them. The Dowager Empress launched a coup to stop these reforms which were much too fast, too radical and even heretical in the eyes of the ruling Confucian elite. Kang Youwei among others was forced to flee abroad to escape execution. There he continued his work for a constitutional monarchy (unsuccessfully). The Emperor knew about the coup but a politically opportunist Yuan Shikai did'n't keep his piehole shut and informed the plotters. The reforms ended and the Guangxu Emperor was placed under house arrest. He was now Emperor in name only and the Dowager Empress became the de facto leader of China.

Suppose that Yuan Shikai is run over by a peasant's ox cart and dies or that he isn't as much of a political opportunist and remains loyal to the Emperor. The coup is beaten down and in an ironic reversal the Dowager Empress is placed under house arrest. The conspirators are captured and executed in some gruesome way or imprisoned after having their noses cut off.

1. Could this work?

2. Even if it couldn't, let's suppose it does. Could this lead to a 'Chinese Meiji'

3. If a stronger China emerges, how does it get along with the western powers. They have annexed several territories. Macau is Portuguese. Hong Kong is British. Qing Dao is German. Russia, Britain, France and the like have carved out spheres of influence and have imposed many unequal treaties on China (forcing China to buy Opium among other things). Upstart Japan has humiliatingly defeated China and Korea, a formed Chinese tribute state, is now firmly in Japan's sphere of influence. Even worse, Japan has annexed Taiwan. What does a strong China do to right these wrongs?
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