WI: Hua Guofang instead of Deng Xiaoping

[Whiteshore]

While most people know that after Mao Zedong died in 1976, there was a brief power struggle which Deng Xiaoping won, few know that he was not Mao's immediate successor. Instead, one Hua Guofang was the immediate successor of Chairman Mao and was the one who brought down the Gang of Four before being forced out of power by Deng Xiaoping, but what if he had won the post-Mao power struggle? What does a China ruled by Hua Guofang instead of Deng Xiaoping look like?

 

[mlp]

If he won then it'd be a continuation of Maoist principles and Communist-line development. Hua was said to emulate Mao a lot in speeches and mannerisms after gaining power, along with trying to use the same propaganda machine to rev up popularity.

 

[Joseph890]

I disagree with that immensely Hua Attempted to make Modest reforms of the country when he was in power and during the short Time He was leader of China he tried to reverse the excesses of the cultural revolution the reason why he was overthrown was that he would not give up on continuing the Maoist party line just believed they should moderate it extensively not give it up completely

 

[mlp]

I disagree with that immensely Hua Attempted to make Modest reforms of the country when he was in power and during the short Time He was leader of China he tried to reverse the excesses of the cultural revolution the reason why he was overthrown was that he would not give up on continuing the Maoist party line just believed they should moderate it extensively not give it up completely

which is exactly what I meant, he continued the pre-76 party line. while Deng went in a completely different route.

 

[Whiteshore]

What would the foreign policy of a Hua Guofang-ruled PRC be, then?

 

[RousseauX]

While most people know that after Mao Zedong died in 1976, there was a brief power struggle which Deng Xiaoping won, few know that he was not Mao's immediate successor. Instead, one Hua Guofang was the immediate successor of Chairman Mao and was the one who brought down the Gang of Four before being forced out of power by Deng Xiaoping, but what if he had won the post-Mao power struggle? What does a China ruled by Hua Guofang instead of Deng Xiaoping look like?

Hua would have being heavily controlled by the party old guard which otl composed of the Chinese leadership during the Deng era. Hua did not have the prestige nor clout with the army, nor ideas of his own to rule the country. Deng had all three, he was always recognized as the most capable pragmatic administrator even by Mao, he was a military commander who saw battle in the wars, and he had a vision to rebuild the country after the cultural revolution.

So it would have been a moderate reformist leadership, there wouldn't have being a period of political liberalization in the 80s, probably some kind of economic reforms would have being made though.

 

[Whiteshore]

What about Hua's foreign policy then? How would it differ from Deng's?

 

[Jonathan Kan]

Apart from alleged Mao's last will note, Hua lack any real power base at PLA, even in a Deng died early TL (as I said below in another TL discussion), he would be brushed aside by cabal of Long March cadres.

Speaking of PRC, you made a right call of Cultural Revolution still occur as IOTL, it could even get worse, since Soviet became even more "Revisionist" ITTL. For me as a Hongkonger, I have a mix feeling - it could went worse it at least three ways - Deng Xiaoping died, in long run butterfly into "birdcage economy" orient Chen Yun leadership late 1970's onward, therefore a British Hong Kong was still needed for the only major outlet for hard currency, and Handover of Sovereignty would at least be much delayed; or worse, Zhou Enlai lost control in foreign policy, Macau's 12-3 incident and Hong Kong 1967 leftist riots could ended in premature reunification of this to these places; or worst both scenarios happen. But in either cases, Détente and establishment of diplomatic relation between PRC and USA would be delayed for a long time, and one last dark notes: during OTL 1969, Soviet came close to launch a preempt nuclear strike Chinese nuclear facilities, it's seems more likely to happen ITTL...

 

[RousseauX]

What about Hua's foreign policy then? How would it differ from Deng's?

Essentially identical I think

The basis of Chinese foreign policy in the Deng era was a continuation of the policies of the Mao era: detente with the US, opposition to the USSR and Vietnam until the late 1980s right around the time when the USSR started to collapse

A Hua "administration" would not have differed greatly in this, they -might- have gone after Vietnam harder in 1979 though, which could mean the PLA gets even more a bloody nose

 

[GSD310]

Hua would have being heavily controlled by the party old guard which otl composed of the Chinese leadership during the Deng era. Hua did not have the prestige nor clout with the army, nor ideas of his own to rule the country. Deng had all three, he was always recognized as the most capable pragmatic administrator even by Mao, he was a military commander who saw battle in the wars, and he had a vision to rebuild the country after the cultural revolution.

So it would have been a moderate reformist leadership, there wouldn't have being a period of political liberalization in the 80s, probably some kind of economic reforms would have being made though.

I agree the most with this.

The real question for me is, would Hua ever become his own man as Chairman? The Mao generation were in their 80s at the time Hua become Chairman. Certainly after a decade they would either have lost their influence, retired or have died.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Essentially identical I think

The basis of Chinese foreign policy in the Deng era was a continuation of the policies of the Mao era: detente with the US, opposition to the USSR and Vietnam until the late 1980s right around the time when the USSR started to collapse

A Hua "administration" would not have differed greatly in this, they -might- have gone after Vietnam harder in 1979 though, which could mean the PLA gets even more a bloody nose

I was under the impression that Hua Guofeng was pursuing normalisation talks with the Soviets, or at least, his foreign policy apparatus was.

 

[samcster94]

Hua would have being heavily controlled by the party old guard which otl composed of the Chinese leadership during the Deng era. Hua did not have the prestige nor clout with the army, nor ideas of his own to rule the country. Deng had all three, he was always recognized as the most capable pragmatic administrator even by Mao, he was a military commander who saw battle in the wars, and he had a vision to rebuild the country after the cultural revolution.

So it would have been a moderate reformist leadership, there wouldn't have being a period of political liberalization in the 80s, probably some kind of economic reforms would have being made though.

Well, that'd butterfly away China as a major economic power.

 

[raharris1973]

I was under the impression that Hua was even more anti-Soviet than Deng was.