WI: How Does A Colin Powell Administration React To 9/11?

[Kung Fucious]

It's that time again: time for another "WI Colin Powell was President?", but this time with a twist!

Let's say that, for the sake of argument, Colin Powell runs for President as a Republican in 2000, and beats out John McCain and George W. Bush for the nomination, and then defeats Gore in a close-but-still legitimate victory (ie no hanging chads or recounts).

At this point the butterflies probably aren't enough to stop 9/11, so how would a hypothetical Powell administration react? How would the invasion of Afghanistan (if that took place) shape up? What are the knock on effects? Who plays Powell in the made for TV movie about the attacks?

 

[Driftless]

There would be an exit strategy planned out for both Iraq (which may or may not happen in this timeline) and Afgahnistan, as part of the war plan.

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I doubt Powell would invade Iraq.

 

[Kung Fucious]

There would be an exit strategy planned out for both Iraq (which may or may not happen in this timeline) and Afgahnistan, as part of the war plan.

I doubt Powell would have gone to Iraq, since OTL he was (by all accounts) extremely hesitant, and only agreed to sign off on the invasion if Bush gathered multinational support rather than acting unilaterally. Maybe some kind of souped-up Operation Desert Fox, but almost certainly no land operations in Iraq proper.

 

[DTanza]

There would have been an exit strategy for Afghanistan, that's for damn sure. Highly unlikely the Iraq War happens.

 

[zoomar]

It's that time again: time for another "WI Colin Powell was President?", but this time with a twist!

Let's say that, for the sake of argument, Colin Powell runs for President as a Republican in 2000, and beats out John McCain and George W. Bush for the nomination, and then defeats Gore in a close-but-still legitimate victory (ie no hanging chads or recounts).

At this point the butterflies probably aren't enough to stop 9/11, so how would a hypothetical Powell administration react? How would the invasion of Afghanistan (if that took place) shape up? What are the knock on effects? Who plays Powell in the made for TV movie about the attacks?

Pretty much the same with respect to Afghanistan: Overthrow the Taliban regime and get Osama. Since you can't do that withut getting stuck in the tar baby, I also don't see much change in the whole regime-change. True, Powell would want a clear exit strategy, but I don't think he'd just leave once he got Bin Laden's head on a stick either. Plus it might take him as long as Bush and Obama to manage the trick so the US would still be stuck in Afghanistan for a long time.

No invasion of Iraq, period. Even if he initially contemplated such a move to "finish" the first gulf war, Powell would respect the hesitancy of the US's traditional NATO allies and drop the idea...at least until military operations in Afghanistan were over and the main goals of the invasion (the Taliban defeated or evicted and Osama dead or captured) achieved.

 

[thekingsguard]

We may also get more common sense security measures after 9/11 instead of the draconian (and ineffective) Patriot Act, TSA and the like. Powell called for different measures than OTL, for example, approaching airport security like the Israelis do. Instead of the TSA, we'd have had pre-flight interviews like El-Al.

 

[zoomar]

We may also get more common sense security measures after 9/11 instead of the draconian (and ineffective) Patriot Act, TSA and the like. Powell called for different measures than OTL, for example, approaching airport security like the Israelis do. Instead of the TSA, we'd have had pre-flight interviews like El-Al.

Maybe, but I do think that placing airport security in the hands of an overall federal agency rather than private contractors and security outfits was a good idea. Also, I think it would be hard for a Powell administration to avoid some of the strong security measures in the patriot act...public sentiment in the aftermath of 9-11 was just too strong. Especially, I think almost any US administration would seek ways to capture and hold prisoners indefinitely without charging them with crimes. As a military man, Powell might declare them prisoners of war under the geneva conventions, allowing them to be held until the war was over (as defined by the US) but at the same time eliminating the illegal torture and mistreatment by the CIA to get intelligence.

 

[pattersonautobody]

What Afghanistan exit strategy? Once humpty dumpty falls off the wall, you know the rest...

 

[Revolutionary Avocado]

Powell might have listened to the professionals in the military and international development community who could have told him how not to make Afghanistan a total clusterfuck. Things like federalization, not going whole-hog on the drug war, etc., might mean that Afghanistan is a semi-functioning place today rather than a complete disaster.

 

[Kung Fucious]

Powell might have listened to the professionals in the military and international development community who could have told him how not to make Afghanistan a total clusterfuck. Things like federalization, not going whole-hog on the drug war, etc., might mean that Afghanistan is a semi-functioning place today rather than a complete disaster.

From what I understand Powell favored using Special Operations and CIA assets in Afghanistan, rather than going full blown invasion. Since that'd probably be a little unpalatable to the US (seeing as there were people seriously arguing for nuking Afghanistan into oblivion), I could see him taking a more NATO-oriented approach that's focused on taking out Al-Qaeda (and capturing Bin Laden) first and toppling the Taliban second.

 

[Deleted member 16736]

From what I understand Powell favored using Special Operations and CIA assets in Afghanistan, rather than going full blown invasion. Since that'd probably be a little unpalatable to the US (seeing as there were people seriously arguing for nuking Afghanistan into oblivion), I could see him taking a more NATO-oriented approach that's focused on taking out Al-Qaeda (and capturing Bin Laden) first and toppling the Taliban second.

This is pretty well my understanding of Powell's philosophy as well. From what I gather a large part of the failure in Afghanistan and Iraq was that you had a central leadership, Bush, Cheney, Powell, and Rumsfeld, who were not believers in nation-building exercises but involved themselves in just that. If Powell, who has a better idea of what invasion and occupation actually look like, does a better job of standing by his guns in that regard, then you're likely to see less of an occupation and more of a quick strike against the taliban with special forces. Whether such an operation would be successful or not I haven't a clue.

 

[Kung Fucious]

This is pretty well my understanding of Powell's philosophy as well. From what I gather a large part of the failure in Afghanistan and Iraq was that you had a central leadership, Bush, Cheney, Powell, and Rumsfeld, who were not believers in nation-building exercises but involved themselves in just that. If Powell, who has a better idea of what invasion and occupation actually look like, does a better job of standing by his guns in that regard, then you're likely to see less of an occupation and more of a quick strike against the taliban with special forces. Whether such an operation would be successful or not I haven't a clue.

I think it depends on how its run. Given my understanding of Powell, I can see him limiting operations to Special Forces raids on Al-Qaeda positions, while using NATO to provide air strikes against Taliban targets, while using the Northern Alliance for most ground operations. Maybe some advisers and limited ground troops, but no full blown nation building forces.

 

[Kung Fucious]

Bumpity bump

 

[Paul V McNutt]

I think the POD here is that Powell runs as a Democrat. He accepts the offer to run as Bill Clinton's running mate. In 2000, he is the second term Vice President.

 

[Lord Grattan]

I think the POD here is that Powell runs as a Democrat. He accepts the offer to run as Bill Clinton's running mate. In 2000, he is the second term Vice President.

Nope, the POD here is ...

Let's say that, for the sake of argument, Colin Powell runs for President as a Republican in 2000, and beats out John McCain and George W. Bush for the nomination, and then defeats Gore in a close-but-still legitimate victory (ie no hanging chads or recounts).