WI: House of Rurik - House of Vasa marriage

Erik XIV of Sweden had the idea in 1566 that his oldest daughter from his first marriage, Virginia, should be married to Tsarevich Ivan Ivanovich, son of Ivan IV. From what I have read, Erik XIV was considering an alliance with Russia and was in a seven-years truce with them as of 1564. However, Erik XIV was eventually deposed and his half-brother took the throne in 1568.

The conversation that I am currently engaged in involves a surviving Isabella (1564-1566), first daughter of John III. After doing a bit more reading, I found that his surviving daughter, Anna (1568-1625), was the subject of a false rumor involving a marriage to Tsar Dmitri (False Dmitri I). Anna never married in OTL.

What is the likelihood of a marriage between a member of the house of Rurik and a member of the house of Vasa? Despite the rumors, there were daughters from the Swedish royal house that could, theoretically, be married to a tsarevich. In addition, what are some potential effects of a marriage between these two houses?
 
The problem with a marriage with Rurikid Russia is that Ivan the Terrible was deadset on getting Livonia unless Erik and Ivan come to an agreement conflict could come from that. Even then the big question is Virginia fertile? With the brides that Ivan Ivanovich got from the bride shows, the first two didn't produce children and last wore loose clothes causing her to get struck by Ivan the Terrible and subsequently miscarriage. If Virginia is fertile, and can survive having Ivan the Terrible for a father in law, then this POD is doable.

As for the effects, well provided this leads a quick resolution in Livonia and keeps the relationship between Ivan and his son stable, your gonna have many effects. For one no Time of Troubles so no Romanovs, on the other hand, this means the Oprichnina system is going to last longer. You could also as a knock on effect of a more Russian cultured Russian aristocracy, but perhaps a Russia less interested in European affairs as a whole. Before the Livonian War, most of the wars Muscovy/Russia fought against European power was to take Kievan Rus lands back from Lithuania. Perhaps also a weaker Russian navy since there's peace in the Baltic and no one like Peter the Great, at least from what can be seen.
 
As previously mentioned, Russia and Sweden were at a truce when the marriage arrangement was discussed. If anything, I think that if Sweden were to back off from its attempts on Livonia then it might very well be a PLC and, in a way, Denmark-screw. Both rulers were mentally unstable so this very well could be possible but things could go wrong quickly. I won't go into the psychological aspects (psychology major currently)... Virginia ended up having seven children with a lesser noble OTL so I think fertility is not an issue. Her age at the time of the proposition and the fact that her father was deposed in 1568 poses issues with the marriage. Unfortunately, I am not sure how to stall Erik's deposition. Of course, another option is Virginia's uncle, John III. He had daughters that lived to be adults.

My knowledge of Russian history is limited but I was under the impression that Ivan IV started and dissolved that system. Why would it continue if it was deemed to have outlived its usefulness in 1572?
 
My knowledge of Russian history is limited but I was under the impression that Ivan IV started and dissolved that system. Why would it continue if it was deemed to have outlived its usefulness in 1572?

The Oprichnina was set up create a separate administration where people loyal to Ivan, regardless of nationality and seemingly religion. The administration had unlimited jurisdiction to do whatever, and operated more like extortionists, mind the only historical source from a member of this organization, only the info as part of a plan to get the HRE to invade Russia. The organization was disbanded after Ivan had decided it was harmful after the Sack of Moscow, which only happened because Russia was distracted in the west, at least it's one of the theories. If Russia has a chance for peace in the west early than a sack is unlikely in first place, although the Oprichnina may not stay into ATL Ivan V's reign.
 
So what can be gathered so far:
- Time of Troubles is butterflied out
- sack/fire of Moscow does not occur
- possible survival of oprichnina system past 1572
- completely different Livonian War

Dependent on some factors, I think that the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth would still pose a treat to Russian interests in the west. Of course, the question still stands as to whom ATL Ivan V would marry. Virginia was, in simple terms, a royal bastard. In your opinion, do you believe that would affect negotiations? If so, then I would have to look at the diplomatic relations between the two countries during the time of John III.
 
I'm not so sure to be honest about birth, Although If Ivan IV is pragmatic enough he could with go one the marriage regardless. Although if Virginia does die while Ivan Ivanovich is Tsar, he may just marry locally but who I don't know. There was a tradition from local families but you mind i'm only someone who knows whatever he can from the sources and histories that are translated into English.
 
From what I recall, according to the Orthodox Church and quite possibly Russian law at that time, any children after a third marriage would not be in the line of succession and ineligible. If that is the case then this marriage would be a last ditch effort to get an heir to the throne.
 
From what I recall, according to the Orthodox Church and quite possibly Russian law at that time, any children after a third marriage would not be in the line of succession and ineligible. If that is the case then this marriage would be a last ditch effort to get an heir to the throne.

Not exactly, depending on the POD Ivan the Terrible could have 4 sons from two wives by 64-5. Dimitry who drown when brought along on a pilgrimage, Ivan Ivanovich and Feodor, who succeeded Ivan the Terrible from his first wife, from his second wife Vasili who only lived till may. Even then if Ivan still had one more son Dimitri, which is where the claim of the false Dimitri's come from, even though Dmitri was the issue of Ivan's ninth or seventh wife. So Ivan the Terrible wasn't hurting for heirs If you don't know Ivan basically had one of most important figures in the church killed for speaking out against him, so he wouldn't care about legitimate marriage think Russian Henry VIII with 1 or possibly 3 more wives and more bloodshed.

Unless your are talking about Ivan Ivanovich, that's making the assumption Ivan doesn't live as long he did which was until 1584 after questionable childhood aside, what an incredibly harsh life. I've toyed around with the idea of having Ivan the terrible killed by a Livonian prisoner, but don't know if it's true or not to work
 
I am not sure about what member of the church you are speaking of but from what I have read he did have members of the clergy arrested and imprisoned during the Massacre of Novgorod. Despite his outbursts of rage and paranoia, he appeared to be a pious man.

And yes, I am speaking about Ivan Ivanovich (ATL Ivan V). I am not sure about his personality but, as previously mentioned, it appeared that he did disagree with his father on a few matters.
 
I am not sure about what member of the church you are speaking of but from what I have read he did have members of the clergy arrested and imprisoned during the Massacre of Novgorod. Despite his outbursts of rage and paranoia, he appeared to be a pious man.

Ivan had the Metropolitan of Moscow at the time Phillip II killed for speaking out against him, but Ivan could still be considered a pious man.

And yes, I am speaking about Ivan Ivanovich (ATL Ivan V). I am not sure about his personality but, as previously mentioned, it appeared that he did disagree with his father on a few matters.

The only issue with that is if Ivan Ivanovich does marry Virgina with no issues from Ivan and Livonia doesn't become an issue, we don't how Ivan Ivanovich will turn out. Ivan Ivanovich's issues with Ivan meddling with his wives and what to do about Livonia became two of the serious disagreements they had, not to say that Ivan Ivanovich will be his father's son completely.
 
If I may, from what I can make out, Ivan Jnr apparently had more in common with daddy-dearest than his mother. That said, would any marriage after Virginia truly be recognized as uncanonical? After all, the first two marriages were annulled (meaning that the marriage theoretically never happened in the first place) weren't they?
 
I don't believe that the marriage would be uncanonical if the marriage to Virginia is his third marriage. Due to Virginia's fertility OTL, having issue should not be a problem. It does appear that father and son have a lot in common though. However, Ivan IV's instability is still an issue.
 
I don't believe that the marriage would be uncanonical if the marriage to Virginia is his third marriage. Due to Virginia's fertility OTL, having issue should not be a problem. It does appear that father and son have a lot in common though. However, Ivan IV's instability is still an issue.

Why are you assuming they wouldn't marry, or that Virgina would be his third marriage somehow? The marriage was planned when Ivan Ivanovich was 12, and could have been his first barring circumstance.
 
Suggested, not necessarily planned. Yes, the tsarevich was 12 but if I recall correctly she would have been around 7 years old. I would have to either do more research or defer to someone else more knowledgeable about whether the age would be an issue.
 
Top