WI: Horses go extinct during the Middle Miocene Disruption

I'd think cattle would take their place; they are already in place as a domesticated critter, they are easy to work with. They actually have one advantage over horses; they were a lot bigger way back then. Horses had to be selectively bred up to be of use for riding, cattle wouldn't have to be. Of course, cattle wouldn't be all that speedy at first, but give them a few thousand years of selective breeding, and you'd fix that...
 

Dorozhand

Banned
Well, the POD might be horses being untamable like zebras or something like that.


Ye, I tend to agree with that.
In agriculture the horses could be substituted by cattle or something like that.
But there is no substitute to horses in warfare. And here are the possible consequences -
- no Indo-Arian migration which might result in uninterrupted existence of Indo-Harrapan civilization and Ashan civilization in Iran and some other old cultures that were (supposedly) swept away by horse-driven chariots of wild Arians.
- no Scythian/Saka/Sarmatian wild nomads invasions might save us a couple of other old civilizations
- no Hun invasion might save the West Roman Empire
- the Turkish nomads pretty much devastated Iran, Irak and some other regions and their atrocities were forgotten only because of the Mongols
- and on top of that we have the Mongol invasion which caused the same harm to the civilization on the Earth as a big meteorite / comet fall might have caused.

Nothing of the above would have happened without the horse.

So the lack of horse might have resulted in human civilization reaching the level of today five hundred years ago or even before.

The ultimate effects of the Mongol invasions (and the rest of history's nomadic invasions) are really interesting just by virtue of the fact that they shake things up when the sedentary civilizations start to stagnate and get a little too comfortable sitting on their asses performing rituals. I'm not sure what the world would look like if, for example, there had been no Bronze Age Collapse. It might be more or less advanced, or it might be something completely different than what we have come to accept as possible. Picture a civilization that is culturally like Old Kingdom Egypt, and technologically like the modern age.
 
I'd think cattle would take their place; they are already in place as a domesticated critter, they are easy to work with. They actually have one advantage over horses; they were a lot bigger way back then. Horses had to be selectively bred up to be of use for riding, cattle wouldn't have to be. Of course, cattle wouldn't be all that speedy at first, but give them a few thousand years of selective breeding, and you'd fix that...

No, I don't think even thousands of years of selective breeding could do that. Horses, when they were domesticated, were already a fast-running animal that survived by outrunning predators. That's not the survival strategy of bovines, they use strength of numbers and their body mass to fend off predators. Have you ever seen a sprinting buffalo or bison? Selective breeding can only do so much. Most domestic animals are still fully members of their parent species, and the most radical differences humans have created have been behavior towards humans and superficial coloration patterns. We're not a substitute for millions of years of evolution, not yet anyway.
 
No, I don't think even thousands of years of selective breeding could do that. Horses, when they were domesticated, were already a fast-running animal that survived by outrunning predators. That's not the survival strategy of bovines, they use strength of numbers and their body mass to fend off predators. Have you ever seen a sprinting buffalo or bison? Selective breeding can only do so much. Most domestic animals are still fully members of their parent species, and the most radical differences humans have created have been behavior towards humans and superficial coloration patterns. We're not a substitute for millions of years of evolution, not yet anyway.

Well, they did change sheep and pigs in rather drastic ways; wild sheep have much longer legs than domestic ones. Even if cattle can never be bred to be as fast as horses, they are still likely to be the riding animal of choice, simply because of ease and availability... they're everywhere where civilization started in the old world. Without horses or donkeys, there's not really many options. Camels might become more popular anywhere that is fairly dry, but IIRC, they don't do so well where it is wet and cold. Plus, their wild ancestors were kinda limited in availability. Oxen were used early on for pulling and plowing; riding them would be the next step. They might not be fast as horses, but without horses, people wouldn't know that...
 
Camels might become more popular anywhere that is fairly dry, but IIRC, they don't do so well where it is wet and cold. Plus, their wild ancestors were kinda limited in availability. Oxen were used early on for pulling and plowing; riding them would be the next step. They might not be fast as horses, but without horses, people wouldn't know that...

Camelids were wide spread. Dromedaries are but one variety of surviving camelid and have "niched" themselves into the hot arid desert environment, but they are not necessarily locked in. Don't forget Bactrian Camels, which spend their entire lives in cold. And of course the entire Llama family was much more widespread back then and far more diverse. These are all running animals. The point about defensive strategies of different species is well taken. Horses, camels, llamas are all running animals, more inclined to flight than fight. Cattle are more inclined to gather together when threatened and present a monolithic wall of cranky bovine muscle and horn to any threat. Great beasts of burden, but not suited for Cavalry.

Is the need to actually ride the animal necessary? I'm not so sure. Cattle give me the impression that they tolerate a person on their back (I'm thinking the water buffalo in the rice paddy being ridden by a young boy) but they don't seem to be capable, or inclined, to form a bond with humans as horses can. Not sure that camelids can either. I think as beast of burden and haulers of wagons, carts, wains and coaches cattle may be well suited, if slow.

I think that if humanity is deprived of horses that we would utilize multiple species for different tasks. We did that any way, but I believe it would be deeper. Cattle for drayage, plowing and assorted heavy tasks (in some areas and for some tasks this would be elephants, camels, reindeer, etc.) Camelids for fast transport and warfare (some of the ancestral llamas were built to be extremely agile. I do not think we would be employing deer or their relatives too much for riding because their gait seems to be unsuitable but they would be utilized possibly for carriages and sleighs...nothing new there.

Lat word about llamas, had early llamas been domesticated they could have been selectively bred for strength, speed, size etc, and under man's protection these larger varieties such as the large headed llama found in Florida may not have gone extinct. Needless to say, I think the best horse analogues are the camelids.
 
Oh Mein Gott! Napoleon on a Cow!

And the world was never the same again.
r169_457x256_17975_Napoleon_cow_2d_illustration_historical_figurative_picture_image_digital_art.jpg
 
I think that if humanity is deprived of horses that we would utilize multiple species for different tasks. We did that any way, but I believe it would be deeper. Cattle for drayage, plowing and assorted heavy tasks (in some areas and for some tasks this would be elephants, camels, reindeer, etc.) Camelids for fast transport and warfare (some of the ancestral llamas were built to be extremely agile. I do not think we would be employing deer or their relatives too much for riding because their gait seems to be unsuitable but they would be utilized possibly for carriages and sleighs...nothing new there.

Right, cows are incredibly useful as both meat and milk sources and beasts of burden and the loss of horses wouldn't be some great blow to mankind, there'd just be no cavalry as we know it. Which of course would massively change history. I agree with you about deer, the only member of the deer family that could be utilized are reindeer, in the way and regions they're used OTL, because your typical deer species were undomesticable because they can't be confined, they're too good at leaping over barriers.

Lat word about llamas, had early llamas been domesticated they could have been selectively bred for strength, speed, size etc, and under man's protection these larger varieties such as the large headed llama found in Florida may not have gone extinct. Needless to say, I think the best horse analogues are the camelids.

Llamas are maybe the #1 candidates for replacing the role of the horse, if they could be bred larger, but I was kind of excluding them because guanacos can only be found in South America, and I sort of assumed we're mostly talking about pre-Columbian exchange Eurasia.

Interesting fact about camelids though; they all pace, which means they move their left or right forelegs and back legs at the same time to walk or run, unlike a horse which runs with a 4-beat gait. Camels walk slowly enough and are tall enough that a rider can sway with their movement, but at fast speeds a pace is apparently incredibly uncomfortable for riding.
 
Llamas are maybe the #1 candidates for replacing the role of the horse, if they could be bred larger, but I was kind of excluding them because guanacos can only be found in South America, and I sort of assumed we're mostly talking about pre-Columbian exchange Eurasia.

Sorry, I missed the geographic limitation.

Interesting fact about camelids though; they all pace, which means they move their left or right forelegs and back legs at the same time to walk or run, unlike a horse which runs with a 4-beat gait. Camels walk slowly enough and are tall enough that a rider can sway with their movement, but at fast speeds a pace is apparently incredibly uncomfortable for riding.

Right, they do have that type of gait, but it didn't prevent the use of the camel as cavalry. I have seen video of Dromedaries galloping though. It did look like it would be very uncomfortable since it creates a terrific "rocking horse (or camel)" motion where the rider would be, no where as smooth as a horse.
 
But there is no substitute to horses in warfare.
No substitute, as good, that evolved IOTL: Elimnate the equids at an early enough point ITTL, however, and who knows?


Another possibility, if we eliminate the equids at an early enough date, might be a greater diversification amongst the more lightly-built lineages of the Sivatheres...
 
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