What if Horace Greeley had won the 1872 election, and still died, but died a little bit later so that his electoral votes aren't scattered. In essence this means he won the electoral college, and is the legal president elect, but is dead so he can't be sworn in, creating a constitutional crisis. What happens next?
WI: Horace Greeley posthumously elected?
- Thread starter ArKhan
- Start date
In such a scenario, would they favor another Liberal Republican candidate? If so which?
They've got a few options, VP nominee Benjamin Gratz Brown, then Associate Justice David Davis, or possibly Chief Justice Salmon P. Chase, among others. Although the wheeling and dealing needed to get them to choose one candidate could get just about anyone into the office, or be so deadlocked we'd have a House vote.
One constitutional issue was addressed at the time. Horace Greeley died before the electoral college vote. Three electors nevertheless cast their votes for him. Their votes were rejected. (Source: Wikipedia article on the 1872 election). The remaining electors pledged to Greeley cast their votes for other Democrats instead.
The same article includes an interesting insight on Greeley's running mate, Benjamin Gratz Brown:
Greeley's running mate, Benjamin Gratz Brown, committed several gaffes due to his drinking problem. For instance, at one campaign picnic he became so drunk that he tried to butter a watermelon.
The same article includes an interesting insight on Greeley's running mate, Benjamin Gratz Brown:
Greeley's running mate, Benjamin Gratz Brown, committed several gaffes due to his drinking problem. For instance, at one campaign picnic he became so drunk that he tried to butter a watermelon.
Given that Grant won the popular vote in 31 of the 37 states in the Union, a realistic scenario for a Greeley victory is difficult to imagine. He would have had to win the popular vote in the 10 states where Grant's margin of victory was under 8% in addition to the 6 states he won in OTL (his MoV was below 8% in 3 of those states) in order to secure an EC majority (177 were needed to win and w/those 10 states added to his OTL total gives him 179 votes); not an easy task to be sure.
However, had he managed this upset victory and received the majority of EC votes and then, before the votes were counted by Congress, died, Congress would have no option other then to declare Greeley & Brown the winners - Greeley having been alive at the time of the EC, thus making his votes valid - thus making Brown the President-elect, in accordance w/the Constitution.
Now if the victorious Greeley dies as per OTL, then his votes would be scattered among various prominent Democrats (as they were in OTL), which would most likely leave Grant w/a plurality of the EC votes. The presidential election would then be decided by the House, with each state delegation having 1 vote. At the time of the vote, February 12, 1873, 21 delegations were GOP majority, 14 were Democratic majority, one was evenly split with 3 R & 3 D and one was split with 4 D, 3 R and 2 Lib. R. In an election between Grant and the two top recipients of Greeley's votes, Grant wins easily. Additionally, Benjamin Brown becomes Vice President come March 4, as his EC victory would not be affected in this scenario.
However, had he managed this upset victory and received the majority of EC votes and then, before the votes were counted by Congress, died, Congress would have no option other then to declare Greeley & Brown the winners - Greeley having been alive at the time of the EC, thus making his votes valid - thus making Brown the President-elect, in accordance w/the Constitution.
Now if the victorious Greeley dies as per OTL, then his votes would be scattered among various prominent Democrats (as they were in OTL), which would most likely leave Grant w/a plurality of the EC votes. The presidential election would then be decided by the House, with each state delegation having 1 vote. At the time of the vote, February 12, 1873, 21 delegations were GOP majority, 14 were Democratic majority, one was evenly split with 3 R & 3 D and one was split with 4 D, 3 R and 2 Lib. R. In an election between Grant and the two top recipients of Greeley's votes, Grant wins easily. Additionally, Benjamin Brown becomes Vice President come March 4, as his EC victory would not be affected in this scenario.
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In that era the Supreme Court would consider this to be a political issue beyond its jurisdiction and would declare that the Congress alone has the Constitutional duty and authority to elect the POTUS if no candidate wins a majority of the votes.
It certainly does. I wonder, had the SC been asked to directly intervene in the OTL 1876 election and had it made a ruling similar to the one stated above, would the SC have followed that precedent in 2000 and declined to hear the case? Talk about a long resting butterfly finally being free to fly.
Well in OTL Greeley's electors were split between several candidates; but that's because no one cared, since Grant won convincingly anyways. And the GOP raised no objections for the same reason. So I foresee the Democrats and Liberal Republicans trying to agree on a replacement to Brown ASAP (it's a pressing matter, since the electors are supposed to cast their votes by a certain date). I'm not sure they'll be able to agree, though if the Democrats want to get rid of Grant badly enough they may well go along with the Liberal Republicans. If they can't agree, it goes to the House, and the House votes in Grant. So we have the negative reaction towards 1876 earlier, and Grant's reputation is tarnished. If the Democrats and Liberal Republicans do agree, I expect the House GOP will raise objections, in which case we have a good old fashioned constitutional crisis on our hands.
In any case, unless he is promoted to the top of the ticket, Benjamin Gratz Brown will still be Vice-President.
In any case, unless he is promoted to the top of the ticket, Benjamin Gratz Brown will still be Vice-President.
I kind of assumed that Greeley would be elected and being dead on March 4th his VP would become President.
That's another interesting possibility. Here's another question, would Greeley still be counted as the 19th president on the official list of US presidents? Or would they skip over him entirly? Maybe give him honorary mention, sort of "19.5th president"?
Yeah, I figure that if he died before the electoral college vote, those votes would (or should anyway) go to another candidate, and if he died after the election, his VP would be sworn in in his stead, just as if he'd died after taking office. In that case the ticket would have been elected fair and square, after all. No constitutional crisis.
No, he would not be counted as a POTUS as he never assumed office.
From the year 2013 in TTL:
It'll probably revert to the Democratic Party as the National Union Party did to the Republicans. If the chosen President is very successful at anti-corruption and other measures and remains himself popular, the Liberal Republicans might just evolve into a real party, although they would need a new name, hopefully not something as boring as Liberal Party.