WI: Hong Kong Was Still a British Overseas Territory?

Hong Kong wasn't handed back to China until 1997. If I remember correctly, the New Territories were given to Britain on a 99 year lease, while Hong Kong Island and the Kowloon Peninsula were given to the UK permanently after the Opium Wars. What if Britain decided to return only the New Territories, and not Hong Kong Island and Kowloon. Thatcher also tried to extend the lease during negotiations with China in the 1980s. What if she had succeeded?
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Part of the reason the actual Hong Kong was handed over as well as the New Territories was because 1) The Chinese were fairly irate about the unfair treaties, and it really wasn't worth starting a shooting war over, and 2) it would have been logistically impossible to actually hold onto Hong Kong without the New Territories, especially with an irate China next door.

So a weaker China, for starts.
 

Zachariah

Banned
I'd argue that a more likely POD would have been at the time when they got the original lease, and having the British succeed in getting, let's say, a 199 year lease over the New Territories instead. So, what if they had, and there was no need to try and extend the lease?
 

Devvy

Donor
IIRC, there was some suggestion around 1909 that the British could give Weihaiwei back to China in exchange for making the Hong Kong New Territories a perpetual lease in some form. Probably easiest manner to legally maintain Hong Kong, although China is bound to pursue it's return no matter who is in power.
 
I'm not sure without the 99 years running down would China not have decided to do something about it potentially earlier? No way can GB really hold HK (or even want to) v China as its to small, far away and its main benefit was as a trade port for entry and exit from China.
 
If GB decided to disregard its expiration date, "If I wanted it, I could take it an afternoon" was not a boast. The World's Largest Insert Here, versus a soggy island in the north Atlantic.
 
Hong Kong wasn't handed back to China until 1997. If I remember correctly, the New Territories were given to Britain on a 99 year lease, while Hong Kong Island and the Kowloon Peninsula were given to the UK permanently after the Opium Wars. What if Britain decided to return only the New Territories, and not Hong Kong Island and Kowloon. Thatcher also tried to extend the lease during negotiations with China in the 1980s. What if she had succeeded?

Hong Kong Island is tiny.

The whole of Colonial Hong Kong is roughly the size of Singapore, while Hong Kong Island is roughly the size of Manhattan. Singapore is a viable city state, Manhattan probably couldn't be.

Also the outlying Islands would be ceded to China, so Chinese territorial waters would completely envelop Hong Kong.
 
My notion would be at least a POD somewhere in the late-1930s under the KMT who needs Hong Kong as a "neutral" open port as Japan seizes its other ports assuming the British are not cowering towards or in alliance with Japan (likely necessitating changes in Europe that might butterfly the second Sino-Japanese war altogether). Assuming the Japanese are forced to respect British autonomy then Chiang may be forced to accept a renewal of the leasehold on the New Territories to ensure China has a port Japan cannot seize or blockade. But unless the British also secure some rights to water the colony is still very vulnerable to Chinese pressure that likely comes once China pushes back Japan, the KMT would really want to reassert its autonomy and shake off the humiliation of the Treaty ports. Unless you conjure a stalemated Sino-Japanese war and/or Chinese Civil War, then it is feasible Hong Kong stands as one of the very few windows to the West and possibly its only trade port, assuming one figures how the port of Canton is made useless but Hong Kong maintains a connection to the interior. Not impossible but definitely taking some creative twists.
 
Top