WI: Holy Roman Emperor Joseph I lived longer?

So for those of you who don't know who he is, Emperor Joseph I was the oldest son of Emperor Leopold I and brother of Emperor Charles VI. Ruling from 1705 to 1711, Joseph was a great reformer, centralizing the bureaucracy, bringing the Habsburg finances under control and strengthened Austria's standing in the HRE. Sadly for Austria he died of smallpox at 32, leaving the Habsburg Monarchy and HRE to his brother Charles, a vastly less capable man. So what if the Emperor didn't die and instead lived at least as long as his brother, to the 1740s? How would Austria and the Empire change? Would Archduke Charles be installed as King of Spain? Would his daughter succeed him in his Empire or would he attempt to divorce his wife to father an heir?
 
It is suspected that Joseph caught an STD from one of his mistresses, so he would have problems fathering an heir anyway. I can see him arranging a Pragmatic sanction, unless ITTL Charles would manage to father two sons (or more). Under a pragmatic sanction scenario he might consider a different spouse for his eldest daughter.
Still he might be able to get Austria in a much better position, but still be faced by a succession crisis.

Archduke Charles will probably get a throne out TTL War of the Spanish Succession, either the Spanish Ones (Castille, Aragon, Leon, Navarre etc.) or the Italian Ones (Naples and Sicily; maybe Sardinia too or not (it stays with 'Spain'), but like IOTL it could end up as consolation price for a minor claimant,, such as IOTL Savoy) that would depend on the development of the war.
Not to mention other territories such as Milan and the Southern Netherlands.

In fact under a scenario, where Joseph remains without a son and Charles would be his successor, then if ITTL Charles has more than one son, I can see the second son of Charles become the de facto Habsburg candidate for 'Spain'.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
I was thinking about this very scenario a while back. I think Janprimus is right that Joseph probably would not produce an heir even if he lived longer. Furthermore I don't think it would alter the outcome of the War of Spanish Succession significantly. Britain was already moving towards a separate peace and Charles was already reduced to little more that Catalonia so I could see him end being made King of Naples (with Milan, the southern Netherlands and either Sardinia or Sicily). The big question would be future succession.

One of the clauses of the Treaty of Utrecht was that the House of Savoy would be the back up heir if Spain or formerly Spanish Italy became available. And of course there was the clause ensuring the separation of Spain and France so the powers did give some thought to future succession issues. So would Charles' position in Italy have some kind of attachment guaranteeing it even if he inherited Austria or to the contrary requiring him have to pass it to someone else if he gains Austria. I'd think the former but maybe the latter if it left Italy to a non-Bourbon like Savoy.

There's also the Mutual Succession Pact to consider, assuming that Charles fails to produce a viable male heir like OTL. It dictated that the inheritance would pass from Joseph to Charles and then if neither had male heirs to Joseph's daughters then Charles' daughters. So if Joseph lives longer he could groom his daughter as heir if Charles does not appear likely to produce a male heir. If Charles does inherit he could try to override it with a pragmatic sanction like OTL but a longer Josephine rule would probably make it harder to undo. And if he's pressured to give up Italy and pretensions to Spain he might just stay put, although it's unlikely he'd turn down the chance to be elected HRE. So possibly an earlier War of Austrian succession if Joseph dies before Charles. I wonder if you could see Charles inherit with his daughter being made his heir in Italy and the Netherlands and his brother's daughter being made his heir in Austria, effecting a partition/separation of the Habsburg realms to appease the other powers. Perhaps Maria Theresa's (or her equivalents) marriage to Don Carlos could go through that would see Naples and Sicily more peacefully pass to the Bourbons as part of an Austro-Spanish alliance.

As for Joseph's rule I think the Balkan wars go similarly at least 1716-178 Austro-Turkish war but it would be interesting to see how Joseph navigates the War of the Quadruple Alliance (perhaps Quintuple if there are two Habsburg powers). After that it depends how long he lives and what the succession situation is like.
 
The relationship between Joseph I and Eugene of Savoy in TTL should not be ignored. Eugene is said to have thought of Joseph as a brother and I imagine if Joseph had lived, he would have listened to Eugene’s advice far more than Charles VI did in OTL. In terms of foreign policy, Joseph would have most likely continued the alliance with Great Britain. A better ruled Austria would have likely faired better in whatever wars Joseph chose to participate in. As for the succession, Joseph could have always enacted his own Pragmatic Sanction making his daughters his heirs over Charles and his heirs (male and/or female). Joseph could have married his eldest daughter, Maria Josepha, to OTL’s Emperor Charles VII. Joseph could have then had Charles VII elected king of the Romans as well as to the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary. It should be kept in mind that in TTL, both Joseph (Bohemia) and Charles VII (Bavaria) would be imperial electors as well as Charles’s brother Clemens August of Cologne. Joseph in TTL would most likely leave Charles VII and Maria Josepha with a treasury fuller than the one OTL’s Charles VI left Maria Theresa.
 
The relationship between Joseph I and Eugene of Savoy in TTL should not be ignored. Eugene is said to have thought of Joseph as a brother and I imagine if Joseph had lived, he would have listened to Eugene’s advice far more than Charles VI did in OTL. In terms of foreign policy, Joseph would have most likely continued the alliance with Great Britain. A better ruled Austria would have likely faired better in whatever wars Joseph chose to participate in. As for the succession, Joseph could have always enacted his own Pragmatic Sanction making his daughters his heirs over Charles and his heirs (male and/or female). Joseph could have married his eldest daughter, Maria Josepha, to OTL’s Emperor Charles VII. Joseph could have then had Charles VII elected king of the Romans as well as to the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary. It should be kept in mind that in TTL, both Joseph (Bohemia) and Charles VII (Bavaria) would be imperial electors as well as Charles’s brother Clemens August of Cologne. Joseph in TTL would most likely leave Charles VII and Maria Josepha with a treasury fuller than the one OTL’s Charles VI left Maria Theresa.

I think a lot will depend on whether or not Archduke Charles has a son TTL or only daughters. If he has a son then he would be the heir, not a daughter of Joseph. The Pragmatic succession only applied when the entire male Habsburg line went extinct.
 
I think a lot will depend on whether or not Archduke Charles has a son TTL or only daughters. If he has a son then he would be the heir, not a daughter of Joseph. The Pragmatic succession only applied when the entire male Habsburg line went extinct.

If in OTL, Charles VI had the right to change the Mutual Pact of Succession into the Pragmatic Sanction, why wouldn’t Leopold I have a similar right in TTL?
 
If in OTL, Charles VI had the right to change the Mutual Pact of Succession into the Pragmatic Sanction, why wouldn’t Leopold I have a similar right in TTL?

He didn't. Legally Charles broke the pact. Plus, if there was a male heir in the form of his nephew, I think Joseph would be forced to recognize him as the heir. After all, the pact went Joseph, any sons of his, Charles and any sons of his, then Josephs' daughters and finally Charles' daughters. Austria has no history of female succession so the majority of politicians would support a continuing male line over a female Monarch, who can't be elected Holy Roman Empress.
 
I can’t argue for Joseph trying to prevent Charles succeeding to all his thrones in the event that Charles had sons. Austria certainly had always had a history of male succession. However, if Charles does not have any sons, I can easily see Joseph doing everything in his power to secure the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary, as well as the imperial throne for the husband of Maria Josepha. If Joseph predeceases Charles in TTL, then the Habsburg Hereditary Lands would go to Charles. I am confident Charles would change the succession law to make his own daughters his heirs in Austria as soon as he came to Vienna. It is a shame that Maria Josepha would be too old to marry any son of Charles in TTL.
 
I can’t argue for Joseph trying to prevent Charles succeeding to all his thrones in the event that Charles had sons. Austria certainly had always had a history of male succession. However, if Charles does not have any sons, I can easily see Joseph doing everything in his power to secure the thrones of Bohemia and Hungary, as well as the imperial throne for the husband of Maria Josepha. If Joseph predeceases Charles in TTL, then the Habsburg Hereditary Lands would go to Charles. I am confident Charles would change the succession law to make his own daughters his heirs in Austria as soon as he came to Vienna. It is a shame that Maria Josepha would be too old to marry any son of Charles in TTL.

Yeah if Charles only has daughters then you can bet that Joseph will be taking steps to ensure his daughter is his heiress and her husband is King of the Romans. Hell if Maria Josepha marries early enough her husband could already be made King of the Romans, cutting out Charles entirely. I wonder who she would marry TTL?
 
As I mentioned in my first post, OTL’s Emperor Charles VII would be a good match for Maria Josepha in TTL. Besides having an electoral vote, Bavaria would make a formidable ally for Joseph and of course upon his death, the House of Wittelsbach would hold Bohemia, Hungary, the Electoral Palatinate, Cologne, and Bavaria. I could definitely see Joseph making sure Charles VII is elected King of the Romans. In TTL, I could easily see Joseph being more proactive in transferring power to his son in law than Charles VI was to Francis I in OTL.
 
@ Alpha Trion: you do assume such a match wouldn't meet any opposition and objections. That was (IMHO) the advantage Francis Stephen had as the proposed husband for Maria Theresia, such a union wouldn't upset the balance of power in the Empire and in Europe. Any Habsburg-Wittelsbach Union will also meet opposition.
Then again it does depend on, the lack of male heirs for Joseph (very likely); and whether or not Charles is alive or has (at least) one son (or more), when Joseph dies.
However if Joseph was to be succeeded by Charles and later one of his sons, then he will get involved in the education of such heir.

Also by this point both Bohemia and Hungary were hereditary in the male line for the Habsburgs, Bohemia became an hereditary possession after the Bohemian Revolt under the rule of Ferdinand II (Verneuerte Landesordnung, 1627).
Hungary was made hereditary in the male Habsburg Line, under the rule of Leopold I, as a reward for defeating the Ottomans (2nd battle of Mohács (1687)), but also in exchange for privileges, as a result of this Joseph was crowned king.
 
@Janprimus: I had forgotten about Bohemia and Hungary being hereditary in the male line for the Habsburgs which means both thrones would go to Charles VI upon Joseph’s death. However, if Charles were to die before Joseph and with no sons, then the estates of both kingdoms would have been able to elect their own kings again. I guess even if Joseph had lived to a ripe old age, Maria Josepha was never going to inherit any of her father’s thrones so long as Charles VI (or any of his descendants) were alive. The multiverse simply did not like Maria Josepha:D.
 
It is suspected that Joseph caught an STD from one of his mistresses, so he would have problems fathering an heir anyway. I can see him arranging a Pragmatic sanction, unless ITTL Charles would manage to father two sons (or more). Under a pragmatic sanction scenario he might consider a different spouse for his eldest daughter.
He did, in the form of the Mutual Pact of Succession of 1703 - the general gist of which was that if he died without male heirs then his brother the future Charles VI would succeed, and if he in turn died without male heirs then Joseph's daughter Maria Josepha would inherit followed in turn by her younger sister Maria Amalia. However once Joseph had died and Charles was on the throne he then proceeded to ignore the agreement and arranged for his own daughter Maria Theresa to succeed him with the Pragmatic Sanction of 1713.


As for Joseph's rule I think the Balkan wars go similarly at least 1716-178 Austro-Turkish war but it would be interesting to see how Joseph navigates the War of the Quadruple Alliance (perhaps Quintuple if there are two Habsburg powers). After that it depends how long he lives and what the succession situation is like.
I actually think that the outcome of the Austro-Turkish War if of 1716-1718 was probably the optimum one for the Habsburgs with regards to territorial holdings in the Balkans. Croatia, the Banat, Belgrade and northern Serbia plus Transylvania north of the Danube river seem like sensible and solid borders, granted it's with hindsight but anything after that is probably more trouble than it's worth.


The relationship between Joseph I and Eugene of Savoy in TTL should not be ignored. Eugene is said to have thought of Joseph as a brother and I imagine if Joseph had lived, he would have listened to Eugene’s advice far more than Charles VI did in OTL.
Well that could be interesting. How Savoyard was Eugene at this stage? From a brief look he was born and brought up at the French court, however when he was knocked back for a commission he also doesn't seem to have had any qualms about pledging his allegiance to the Habsburgs either. The reason I ask is I was wondering that if he was more listened to/a central character could it have helped improve relations between Savoy and Austria?

Assuming that no male heirs enter the picture then Maria Josepha or Maria Theresa are going to need to a husband. Rather than picking a mid-level duke on the western fringes of the Holy Roman Empire in the form of the Lorraine, why not a mid-level duke on the western border of the Holy Roman Empire in the form of Savoy by marrying Victor Amadeus II or his son Charles Emmanuel III depending on which daughter it is to create the house of Habsburg-Savoy? Granted there might be somewhat of an age gap but that doesn't appear insurmountable. Victor Amadeus and Charles Emmanuel both seem to have been forward thinkers who reformed both the administration of the duchy as well as their armed forces, if a reforming Joseph I is followed by either of them then that could really help Austria.


A better ruled Austria would have likely faired better in whatever wars Joseph chose to participate in.
I've seen it argued that with regards to the Pragmatic Sanction rather than paying off the other countries of Europe to recognise it only for them to renege on the deal the moment he was dead that he would have been better off spending the money on his armed forces so that they could just present it as a fait accompli. Aside from the already mentioned Austro-Turkish War if of 1716-1718 I think they would have been best to keep their heads down and stay out of as many wars as was possible for them.


Speaking of wars during the War of Spanish Succession from the Battle of Blenheim onwards Bavaria was under pretty much complete Austrian occupation. One idea that I've always liked is for a longer-lived Joseph I to swap the Kingdom of Naples and the Kingdom of Sicily, in effect forming the Kingdom of Two Sicilies, in return for keeping Bavaria and the Elector giving up his position. In our timeline Charles VI still saw himself as the rightful king of Spain so wasn't willing to part with any of his 'Spanish' territory, Joseph however probably wouldn't be as fussed. France could grudgingly go along with this as it's actually a promotion to being a (double) king for their ally Maximilian II Emanuel. This could have a number of knock-ons as it strengthens the Habsburgs, possibly enough to not lose Silesia in the future.


@Janprimus: I had forgotten about Bohemia and Hungary being hereditary in the male line for the Habsburgs which means both thrones would go to Charles VI upon Joseph’s death. However, if Charles were to die before Joseph and with no sons, then the estates of both kingdoms would have been able to elect their own kings again. I guess even if Joseph had lived to a ripe old age, Maria Josepha was never going to inherit any of her father’s thrones so long as Charles VI (or any of his descendants) were alive. The multiverse simply did not like Maria Josepha. :D
Maria Theresa was elected Queen of Bohemia and Queen of Hungary, IIRC these were the two titles that Frederick II used to address her when negotiating the end of the War of the Austrian Succession since they were the ones that he officially recognised her as having. If Maria Theresa was able to be elected then it's certainly possible for Maria Josepha or her husband to also be either.
 
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I guess the answer to what would have happened if Joseph had lived is dependent on just how long he lived in TTL. If neither brother has a son, and Joseph dies before Charles, then Charles would inherit Austria, Bohemia, and Hungary. Depending on whom Maria Josepha married and/or Joseph’s relationship with his brother, Joseph may be able to get his son in law elected King of the Romans. Charles is obviously going to change the succession law as soon as he inherits the thrones in favor of his daughters over Joseph’s daughters and I imagine Joseph would be smart enough to foresee that. Joseph would likely marry his daughters to princes strong enough to defend their inheritance rights. The reason why I mentioned OTL’s Charles VII as a husband for Maria Josepha, is that along with him having the support of the Wittelsbach imperial electors, Bavaria had traditionally had good relations with France. In fact, France has been promoting the idea of a Wittelsbach emperor since the 17th century. In TTL, depriving OTL’s Charles VI of the imperial throne would work to the advantage of both Joseph and Louis XV. As for Eugene of Savoy helping to arrange a marriage between Charles Emmanuel III and Maria Josepha, I only see that happening if Eugene really felt Savoy could help Maria Josepha’s side in a potential succession war. Charles Emmanuel would make an impressive ruler of Austria if given the chance. But in light of Charles VI being the heir of Joseph, I imagine Savoy would prefer a marriage between Charles Emmanuel and Charles VI’s heiress, TTL Maria Theresa.

Just who would Maria Theresa marry in TTL? I imagine Charles VI would look for a prince strong enough to defend Maria Theresa’s inheritance against Maria Josepha’s husband. As mentioned by Vitruvius, a marriage between a son of Philip V of Spain and Maria Theresa would have many advantages for Charles VI in TTL, and give Maria Theresa a possible alliance with both Spain and France against Maria Josepha. People tend to forget that in TTL, the duke of Berry’s fatal hunting accident in 1714 might be butterflied away, and he instead of the duke of Orleans would have been regent for Louis XV. Joseph and Charles VI may have had to deal with a rematch against the Bourbon powers in TTL.
 
@ Simon: the ruler of Austria would have liked to acquire Austria, but many of the other princes of the Empire, including Prussia, Saxony etc. weren't to keen on that prospect. Maybe if they had followed the advice of Eugene of Savoy, they could have make them accept it.
Except there is one problem with a territory swap, the Italian territories were the lands of Charles, not from Joseph; even ITTL since Charles would still be the Habsburg candidate in a War of the Spanish Succession, which resulted (and legitimated) those gains.
Regarding marriages, an interesting thought under this scenario might be if both brothers like IOTL only had daughters.
They might both want and decide to secure their own inheritance for their own daughter.

Also IOTL Maria Theresia was not elected as Queen Regnant, she was recognized as such by the Estates (there's a difference), at least in Hungary. Bohemia is more complex, but after the defeat of Charles VII, the Bohemian Estates didn't have much choice left. I remember reading that the disloyalty of the Bohemians, they initially preferred Charles VII, had left a negative impression on her.
However Maria Josepha (or depending on health; Maria Amalia) will also be recognized, at least internally. Foreign powers might see an opportunity they could seize...

@ Alpha Trion: like I wrote above, I can see both brothers wanting to be able to pass their inheritance on their own children; not to mention that if Charles ends up with Spain and the colonies, all other Powers will object against an union anyway. However if Charles ends up with Naples, Sicily (, Sardinia?) and Milan, then they might be interested in an union with Savoy (& Sardinia?) and that feeling would probably be mutual.
The position of Lorraine also depends on how peace treaties ITTL war of the Spanish Succession work out for them, they might have to accept that France gains their ancestral lands in exchange for the Southern Netherlands or Milan. They too would remain potential compromise candidates.
 

Vitruvius

Donor
So it seems like everyone agrees that the long term affects are really dependent upon whether or not Charles has a son. One thing I could happen if he has a son is that the boy could be sent to Vienna to be raised with Joseph as a future Emperor. The same thing happened OTL with Joseph II, Leopold II and the latter's son Franz II. Since Joseph had no sons Leopold was his heir but Leopold was ruler of Tuscany so he stayed in Florence but sent his young son Francis to Vienna. So in this scenario Charles could continue to rule in Naples but his son could be brought up in Vienna. I think he still succeed Joseph if his brother dies first but like OTL Leopold II his reign would probably be short.

If they both have daughters I think Janprimus is right that they would each to secure first their own realms for their daughters and then line up an argument for their daughters to inherit their brother's realm. Realistically the only way a Maria Theresa could have a shot at Austria is if Joseph dies first. If Charles dies first Joseph will probably ensure that Austria goes to Maria Josepha. I was thinking that the War of the Quadruple Alliance or its TTL equivalent could set things in motion as the succession goes. If Charles reaches out to Spain post war in the 1720s like he did OTL a match between Maria Theresa and Infante Charles could ensure a strong Italian power. Perhaps they have to give up Milan to Lorraine so France can annex the Duchy of Lorraine but since Charles brings Parma and Tuscany that more than makes up for it. Though I do wonder about Mantua. OTL it was simply annexed by Charles as Emperor but the theoretical heir is Lorraine. So if Joseph annexes it then it becomes linked to Austria but not to Milan which is Charles'.

I'm not sure about a Bavarian match for Maria Josepha. Max Emanuel was very pro-French but he's dead by 1726 anyways. So I suppose a lot really depends on how Bavaria makes out at the end of the War of Spanish Succession. OTL there was serious talk of giving Bavaria Sicily or Sardinia in compensation for loosing the Upper Palatinate to the Elector Palatine and some some smaller territories (like Mindelheim to Marlborough) to the allies. The main reason it didn't happen OTL is that the Treaty of Utrecht settled things in Italy but not Germany since Austria fought on until Rastatt and by then there was nothing left to compensate Bavaria with so she had her pre-war territories restored. So if Joseph goes along with the British for one general peace to end the war completely it could involve a slightly different settlement in Italy and Germany. But Eugene was opposed to peace in 1713 and he arguably has more influence over Joseph than he did over Charles. Of course its hard to say how much of Charles' decision to keep fighting was driven by his unrelenting ambition to be made King of Spain. I think there's a serious chance that the Peace Treaty could cause a falling out between the brothers if Joseph abandons Charles' claims to Spain in favor of a settlement that advances Austrian interests in Germany vis a vis France and Bavaria. Charles would be forced to retreat to Naples and sulk, that crown hardly offers the same compensation as being HRE like he was OTL. Then perhaps he focuses on carving out a legacy for his daughter which could involve an alliance with Spain. Bourbon-Farnese-Habsburgs ruling half of Italy?
 
@Janprimus: I really like your idea of a personal union between Savoy and Naples. This combination would be a dominant force in Italy.

In terms of settling the succession crisis between Joseph and Charles in TTL, would it not make sense for them to agree to amend the Mutual Pact of Succession? The Pact stated that if one brother failed to have a son, the other brother would succeed him in all his realms. Why can’t Joseph and Charles agree to recognize their respective daughters as their heirs in their respective realms? In other words, Maria Josepha (and her heirs) would inherit Austria upon her father’s death and Maria Theresa (and her heirs) would inherit Charles’s realms upon his death. If Joseph’s or Charles’s lines of succession were to go extinct, then the surviving line would inherit the realms of the other line.
 
I am confident Charles would change the succession law to make his own daughters his heirs in Austria as soon as he came to Vienna. It is a shame that Maria Josepha would be too old to marry any son of Charles in TTL.

I saw a thread on a different forum where Josef's son, Leopold Josef survives, becomes HRE as Leopold II, but then has only daughters. Karl's son, Leopold Johann (renamed Karl Leopold for clarity's sake) survives and then marries that same daughter - his second cousin once removed - and they rule much like OTL MT and Franz I did.
 
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